Presidential election in Northern Cyprus: "We are moving towards a reorganization of alliances"

Cypriots hold Turkish and Turkish Cypriot flags as they celebrate the victory of Turkish-backed nationalist candidate Ersin Tatar in Nicosia on October 18, 2020. AP Photo / Nedim Enginsoy

Text by: Anissa El Jabri Follow

6 min

The nationalist Ersin Tatar, protected from Ankara, created a surprise by winning Sunday, October 18 the “presidential” election in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), recognized only by Turkey.

RFI asked three questions on the subject to Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier, doctor in geopolitics, associate professor of history and geography, and researcher at the French Institute of Geopolitics (University Paris VIII Vincennes-Saint-Denis).

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Jean-Sylvestre Mongrenier:

My reading grid is the affirmation of Turkey in its immediate and even more distant environment.

There is a strong Turkish nationalism in which the northern part of Cyprus also participates.

We hear about interference, interference from Ankara: if we look at things in Southern Cyprus and Greece, yes, it is.

But the northern part of Cyprus is a puppet state, it is purely and simply the property, the very possession of Turkey: there is a structural hold over the northern part.

It is all the same Ankara which makes the rain and the good weather there with the occupation of 37% of the territory, the presence of 30,000 soldiers that Turkey does not want to withdraw, all the negotiations stumble on that.

The TRNC is a pseudo state on an economic drip: without Turkey's support, Northern Cyprus would be bankrupt.

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After this result, what is the most likely scenario for the future?

The most likely scenario is the strengthening of the status quo as it exists today, i.e. in fact two states, one state in the south, which is the only one recognized internationally, and on the other side the northern part, this puppet state which is recognized almost only by Turkey.

The solution of reunification in a federal formula is undermined: knowing that it seemed nevertheless already improbable in view of the international context and Turkey's desire to assert itself in the region.

The situation is already extremely tense and it is not a change of mood, it is a basic fact from the moment when Turkey intends to play its own part in the region, to pose as a full-fledged strategic player in the intersection between East and West.

When we look at Cyprus, which is less than a hundred km from the coast of Asia Minor, we do not see Turkey giving up on this issue.

Cyprus is a very important geostrategic stake, there is already this position in the Eastern Mediterranean, more precisely in the Levantine basin: there is therefore a circulation stake.

There is also an issue of possessions, the Special Economic Zone has increased in value with the

and gas fields.

This is not what is revolutionizing the geopolitics of gas, because it makes less than 2% of the world's gas reserves, but at the level of the different states around the eastern Mediterranean, it is really a factor that comes from change a lot of things.

Then there is an identity dimension, because we cannot reduce everything to simple power factors or simple material and economic factors.

From the point of view of Turkey, Cyprus is a piece of this Turkey which goes from the Adriatic to the Great Wall of China, which was under Ottoman dimension until 1878, then under British protectorate before achieving independence in 1960. This territory has a Turkish population which must represent about 20% of the total and Ankara argues from this population and from the Ottoman past of Cyprus to claim to dominate this island.

This confirms what we feared, that is to say that the foreign policy carried out does not depend on solely circumstantial factors, or on Erdogan's moods: there is indeed a movement of funds for self-affirmation by Turkey, of increasing distance with the West.

We must also take into account the recent tests of the

bought by Turkey, and which is a major source of discord with the United States and more broadly inside NATO: all that goes in the direction of a loosening of links and

with a Turkey which is toppling.

We are indeed moving towards a reorganization of alliances.

We have been looking for years to push back the deadlines and the possibility of starting a new start.

But now we see that the appetite comes with eating: even if today Turkey now has the security zone that it had clamored for in the northern part of Syria, that does not prevent it. to want to assert itself well beyond.

This shift refers to factors internal to Turkey: for a long time it was a geopolitical pivot, an actor with relatively reduced autonomy which followed Western policies, which did not have the critical mass sufficient to influence the development of these policies. .

Today, this geopolitical pivot transforms it into a geostrategic actor and intends to conduct its own foreign policy, according to its own vision of the world and its own hierarchy of priorities.

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