Nagorno-Karabakh: the laborious truce between Azerbaijan and Armenia
A store damaged by Azerbaijani artillery shelling in Martakert, in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Monday, October 19, 2020. AP Photo
Text by: Sophia Khatsenkova
5 mins
Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other on Monday of violations of the ceasefire that entered into force on Sunday in the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
A first truce negotiated by Russia a week earlier had already gone unheeded.
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This is the second time that a
ceasefire
attempt has
failed in Nagorno-Karabakh.
It should be remembered that this conflict is more than 30 years old and has still not been resolved.
The Minsk group, which includes France, the United States and Russia, is the mediator in this conflict, but without concrete results in three decades.
There had already been an attempt in 2016, with an effective ceasefire after four days of resumption of clashes.
Russia then succeeded in bringing the parties back to the negotiating table.
But today, everyone wants their share, and even the powerful Russian neighbor has not been able to calm tensions, as explained by Olga Oliker, director of the Europe and Central Asia program of the NGO Crisis Group: “
Russia had promised that if both sides got to the negotiating table, they could achieve results more effectively than by fighting.
But as these last 4 years there have been no results, Russia can no longer commit to any result.
"
For the researcher, it is Azerbaijan that is particularly frustrated by the negotiations.
“
That's why you have a war today.
This is because you have parties to the conflict who are frustrated after three decades of negotiating without getting what they want.
"
Armenia and Azerbaijan in Russia's backyard
Russia has maintained good relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan in recent years.
Russia has a formal defense agreement with Armenia and a long-standing relationship with Azerbaijan.
According to Olga Oliker, she does not have enough powerful levers to negotiate peace in this area today and does not want to get involved in an armed conflict.
“
Over the years, Russia has supplied arms to both countries.
She was heavily criticized for it.
But it also undoubtedly helped to maintain the balance of power so that neither party was entirely convinced that it could win this conflict.
But obviously, this is no longer the case today.
Russia is not getting any benefit from getting involved in this war.
Russia does indeed have an engagement with Armenia.
But if the war advanced on Armenian territory outside of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Russians would have a different problem and that they do not want today,
”explains the director of the program for Europe and Central Asia.
Can Nagorno-Karabakh become a proxy war?
The latest clashes raise fears that the conflict could turn into a larger war, with other foreign powers in the Caucasus.
Because in addition to Russia alongside Armenia, this would also involve Turkey, close to Baku culturally and militarily.
In addition, the Nagorno-Karabakh region is crossed by pipelines essential to supply the world oil and gas markets.
For
Moscow
, it is out of the question to see this region set ablaze.
No question of leaving too much power to Turkey.
Among the other countries, there is also France and to a lesser extent the United States, which has kept political and economic ties with the two countries.
But this is not a proxy war between Russia and Turkey that we see today, according to Olga Oliker.
Rather, it is foreign powers that have engaged with Armenia or Azerbaijan and find themselves drawn into this conflict.
Even
Turkey
, which has expressed its support for Azerbaijan a lot, is just following its ally according to the researcher: “
I think Erdogan supports the president of Azerbaijan, but I don't think Turkey is leading the battle. .
I think Turkey would support Azerbaijan if Baku wants to return to the negotiating table.
Just as Erdogan would support his ally if he wanted to continue the fighting.
"
Today, the situation is still very unstable in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The international community is trying somehow to appease a conflict that has already claimed several hundred lives on both sides in three weeks, but so far to no avail.
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To read also: In Nagorno-Karabakh, the failure of the truce makes the aid to civilians "difficult"
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