What is the prediction of the winner of the US presidential election that you asked the expert who hit the mark last time?

What is the prediction of the winner of the US presidential election that you asked the expert who hit the mark last time?

October 17, 8:07

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Whether President Trump will be reelected or former Vice President Biden will regain power, with less than three weeks before the election, President Trump's reversal victory over most of Clinton's dominance in the last election four years ago Predictions are divided among the experts who hit the mark.

Predicting Mr. Biden's victory

Biden's victory is predicted by American University historian Professor Alan Rictoman.

The professor has been known for correctly predicting election results in eight of the nine presidential elections since 1984, and last time claimed that Mr. Trump would win.

Rather than analyzing the results of polls, Rictoman independently derives 13 indicators that determine the outcome of an election from the history of past presidential elections, and predicts the results based on how well they match. doing.

Specifically, in an interview, Mr. Rictoman called these fundamentals = basic conditions based on the economic situation, the performance of the administration, the evaluation, the presence or absence of social unrest, and the situation of the political party to which he belongs. We are calmly analyzing the "fundamentals" of the ruling party's politics and deciding whether or not to entrust the administration for the next four years, "said voters using these indicators as a basis for voting. I pointed out that I have decided.

"President Trump does not match seven of the thirteen indicators. The final prediction is that he will be the incumbent president who has failed to re-election since President Bush lost to Clinton in 1992." , President Trump predicts that Mr. Byden will win without being reelected.

An analysis by Rictoman's indicators predicted President Trump's victory at the end of last year, but that changed due to the spread of the new corona virus, economic deterioration, and the expansion of protests against racial discrimination. "President Trump is at a disadvantage in terms of short-term economic conditions, long-term economic conditions, and social unrest, and in the history of the United States, he is predicted to win in just a few months as the incumbent president. This will be the first case of a defeat prediction. "

On the other hand, regarding how the recent situation such as the infection of President Trump and the selection of the Supreme Court judge will affect the election, "It may not be accepted sensuously, but it can be said that it does not affect the presidential election at all. For example, in the last election, I expected Mr. Trump to win before President Trump's repeated disdainful remarks were revealed, and FBI Secretary Comey at the time said Mr. Clinton. Even before he announced that he would start investigating his e-mail, it had no effect on his predictions. "

Predicting President Trump's reelection

In contrast, President Trump's re-election is predicted by Professor Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University.

Norpoth predicts the outcome of the presidential election using statistical methods that are also used to predict stock prices and economic conditions, and targets the winners of five of the past six presidential elections, including Mr. Trump. I'm inside.

Norpoth says there is a 91% chance that President Trump will be reelected this time.

"I'm heretical, with most researchers predicting the outcome of the election predicting Biden's victory, but I've had the same feeling four years ago," Norpoth said.

Mr. Nopos also commented that various polls showed Mr. Biden's lead, "Biden is numerically leading in the state that is now considered to be a fierce battle state, but Mr. Clinton also said in 2016. In terms of numbers, he led in the same way, and as a result, Mr. Trump won. "

He added, "For the last 20 years, polls have tended to overwhelm the Democrats and have made mistakes, and President Trump is a politician with a particularly distinctive likes and dislikes, so among those who are not happy with him I can't say that I support Mr. Trump, "he said, citing the existence of" hidden Trump supporters "that do not appear in polls.

"People tend to think that this is the most unusual time in history, but in the election four years ago, there was talk of Russia interfering with the election, and Clinton's email scandal. In 2008, many thought that blacks couldn't be president of the United States, "said the current situation, which has historically not been so special as to overturn expectations. He said it would be as expected.