US Presidential (D-18): Early voting breaks records, duel by screens interposed between Biden and Trump -

20 Minutes

  • Early voting will break records, but the election result may well be delayed beyond November 3.

  • In particular, the system of collecting different ballots according to the States.

    Some will thus accept the envelopes up to ten days after the poll.

  • The threat of an extended legal battle therefore hangs over the US presidential election, unless a clear winner (more likely Biden, according to the polls) emerges.

It is a paradox.

While early voting (by mail and in person) is set to break records in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic, we might not know which Joe Biden or Donald Trump won the US presidential election on the evening of November 3.

Some crucial states will indeed take several days to go through the postal bulletins.

With the risk of a judicial standoff in the event of a tight ballot, which could make the Bush-Gore recount of the year 2000, which had held America in suspense for four weeks, seem like a walk in the park.

A majority of the ballots cast before the poll

In 2016, 40% of voters voted before the ballot, by post or through early voting.

This year, as has been said, this record should be exploded.

Thursday, "more than 17 million Americans" had already voted, according to Michael Mcdonald, at the head of the Election Projects at the University of Florida.

This is twelve times more than in 2016 on the same date.

In Georgia, on Monday, hundreds of thousands of voters lined up for several hours to cast their ballot in person.

Ditto in Texas, where the trend is amplified by the 1.8 million new voters registered on the lists since 2016. In total, more than 80 million "mail-in ballots" (postal ballot) were requested or sent to Americans.

Predicting an exact number is complex, but Michael Mcdonald estimates that "up to two-thirds" of voters may have already spoken by November 3.

And the count promises to be complicated.

States will be lagging behind

The situation is complex and varies from state to state.

Some authorize the “pre-processing” of ballots, which can be several pages long, before November 3 (verification of signatures, addresses, because they are well filled out, etc.), which saves time during counting by machines.

To complicate matters, some states will accept envelopes up to 10 days after the ballot, provided they have been mailed before November 3, the postmark being taken as proof.

In total, twice as many Democrats as Republicans could vote by mail, but Donald Trump supporters should be in the majority to go to voting booths on D-Day, November 3.

The American president could therefore appear to be clearly in the lead in the early evening - a scenario described as a "red mirage", for the color of the Republican Party, by the experts - before being caught by Joe Biden in as early voting is counted.

OH, FL and NC (who pre-check the postal vote upstream) were to have a result on the night of the vote.

But WI, MI and PA, where Biden is at +6/7 points, could take several days.

Uncertainty in sight, unless Biden wins FL + OH or NC (or AZ + IA) and folds the deal pic.twitter.com/lrGdBPFShf

- Philippe Berry (@ptiberry) October 13, 2020

In the ten or so "swing states", where the election should be played out, some, except in the case of tight results, should be able to announce the winner overnight, explains Michael Mcdonald: Florida, Ohio and North Carolina .

On the other hand, it could take several days for three states that Donald Trump had won by a hair in 2016 against Hillary Clinton, and where Joe Biden is the favorite this time: Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

The risk of a legal battle

Although there has never been a major problem in the past, Donald Trump is raising the specter of massive mail-in voting fraud.

In the event of a disputed ballot, appeals could be lodged by the parties in court to have certain ballots banned.

Professor of political science at the University of Maryland, Jeffrey Davis even envisions a catastrophic scenario in which states led by Republican governors refuse to validate results and choose pro-Trump voters.

Because the American ballot is indirect suffrage, it is, in theory, possible for the popular vote to be bypassed by this electoral college, for a constitutional battle that would then be arbitrated by the House of Representatives or the Supreme Court.

For Chris Edelson, professor of political science at the University of Washington, "it is for this reason that Donald Trump's refusal to commit to accepting the results is particularly worrying for democracy".

Especially in a tense climate of demonstrations punctuated by clashes in which armed militias of the extreme right are invited.

Michael Mcdonald remains optimistic, however: according to him, with Joe Biden's current lead in the polls, "it is likely that a fairly clear map emerges on the evening of November 3, especially if Donald Trump loses Florida".

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