The mystery of the low number of deaths due to "Corona" in India
India, with its estimated population of 1.3 billion, surpassed the 7 million mark on Sunday for infection with the emerging coronavirus, the second country in the world in terms of the number of cases after the United States, but it records far fewer deaths than other countries severely affected by Covid-19.
Experts baffle these numbers, and AFP analyzed some of the questions and hypotheses it poses.
What are the numbers?
India has recorded 7.05 million cases and 108,334 COVID-19 deaths since the first death was detected in mid-March.
India is the second most populous country in the world, with the lowest number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases in the world, among the 20 countries most affected by the epidemic, with 1.5%, according to Johns Hopkins University figures.
The United States has the second largest number of injuries in the world, with an apparent death rate of 2.8%.
In terms of the number of deaths compared to the population, India records the number of deaths at 7.73 per 100,000 people, compared with the United States with 64.74.
A young age group in India
predominates in India a young age group with an average age of 28.4 years, according to a United Nations report on the world's population.
For comparison, the average number of people in France is 42.3 years, during which about 700 thousand cases and more than 32 thousand deaths were recorded, with an apparent mortality rate of 4.7%.
Experts consider that older people, who are more likely to have diseases such as diabetes or high blood pressure, are more likely to die from an infectious disease.
- The delay in the spread of the epidemic and the imposition of strict isolation measures,
according to the Indian government. The first infection was recorded in the country on January 30, and the number of cases in mid-March exceeded the hundred threshold.
Meanwhile, the virus was spreading throughout Europe, with more than 24,000 cases, 2,000 deaths in Italy, about 5,500 infections and 150 deaths in France.
On March 25, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the imposition of nationwide isolation measures, which severely curtailed movement.
According to experts, India had sufficient time to prepare for the spread of the epidemic and doctors to benefit from the experiences and experiences of other countries.
Anand Khrishnan, a professor at All India Institute of Medical Sciences in New Delhi, told France Presse, "Many of the treatment protocols were then better proven in terms of oxygen use or intensive care."
Natural immunity
, epidemiologist T. Jacob John and other experts say to France Press that it is possible that previous infectious diseases, such as dengue fever spread in India, gave the population a certain level of antibodies to prevent corona virus.
Others also argue that it is possible that exposure to other, less deadly forms of the Coronavirus may have given the population some form of immunity.
But experts agree that broader and more in-depth research is needed on the issue.
-
Undisclosed deaths Usually India does not count all deaths and their causes.
It is a problem that is usually recorded in rural areas, where 70% of the population resides.
Many deaths are not recorded in these areas unless the patient is hospitalized.
During the outbreak of the epidemic, this phenomenon was exacerbated: the deaths published by the municipalities on the one hand, and the cemeteries and crematoriums on the other hand, were not identical in several cities.
And some accuse many states of deliberately covering up deaths with Covid-19 and attributing them to other diseases.
"Our inadequate system for monitoring deaths (...) is already overlooking many deaths," said Humont Chiwadi, a public health expert in Bangalore.
Only one-fifth of the deaths were recorded with a specific cause ».
It is likely that several deaths from Covid-19 have not been recorded.
He adds that government studies using serological tests show that the number of infected people is 10 times higher than the official figures, which means that deaths resulting from the epidemic may not be disclosed.
- Greater accuracy in numbers -
Experts confirm that greater accuracy in numbers is possible through increasing infection detection tests through better recording of deaths and autopsies of people assumed with Covid-19.
Following the thread of increased mortality - the number of deaths compared to the "normal" numbers - and deaths occurring in homes, Shiwadi says, may also be beneficial.
In the city of Bombay the most affected by the epidemic, the municipality discovered that during March-July the number of deaths by 13,000 exceeded the number recorded during the same period last year, more than twice the official number of deaths linked to Covid-19 during this period, according to the newspaper "The Indian Akbar".
Follow our latest local and sports news, and the latest political and economic developments via Google news