After 5 years of war

Putin achieves his goal in Syria, a major player in the Middle East

• Russian plane raids the city of Homs, which was heavily damaged by Russian raids.

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• Putin did not aim to enter Syria to preserve stability, but rather to impose himself as an important player in the region.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin said in September 2015, two days before he ordered his army to enter Syria, to support the Syrian government's army led by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, “No one learns from the mistakes of others and everyone repeats these mistakes.” Five years have passed since Russia started its first air strikes on Syria, specifically. Over the city of Homs.

But the question now arises strongly: What can we say about this conflict so far?

To justify the Russian intervention, Putin pointed with an accusing eye to the United States, which is accustomed to wars in the Middle East, these wars that Russia opposed.

"How did it end up like this?" Putin asked.

Instead of reform, aggressive foreign intervention has resulted in the blatant destruction of national institutions.

Instead of the victory of democracy and progress, we have violence, poverty and social destruction.

In fact, no one absolutely cares about human rights, including the right to life. ”To prevent further collapse in Syria, he said that Russia decided to intervene in this battle.

Comic criticism

Five years after the Russian intervention, Putin's criticism of the US intervention in the Middle East seems somewhat comical, “How did it end up in this situation?” This question can be asked strongly about Russia's war in Syria.

There is a lot of "outright destruction", especially in the brutal attack on Aleppo.

Violence, poverty and social catastrophe continued to have a clear impact on the Syrian people.

In addition to the above, "political stability", in addition to the social and economic recovery in the Middle East promised by Putin, is still elusive, and the civil war in Syria will not end in the near future.

The killing continues on the outskirts of the city of Idlib in northern Syria.

Last August, several American soldiers were wounded during a confrontation with Russian soldiers in northern Syria.

The issue of rebuilding Syria is still a dream that cannot be realized soon.

Despite Russian promises of economic aid, the Syrian population continues to suffer greatly.

Russia has provided little money to rebuild Syria, in the hope that Western countries will eventually pay the reconstruction bill to avoid a further influx of refugees into Europe.

Effects of war

The Syrian war has spread to the region, affecting countries such as Lebanon and Turkey.

A conflict is taking place in the Mediterranean, as Russia intervenes in Libya, and in return, Turkey intervenes.

Instead of preserving the stability of the region, the Russian intervention had the opposite effect of what was announced.

But from Moscow’s point of view, the stability of the region is not of much importance, because the goal of the Russian army’s intervention in Syria was to confirm the Kremlin’s presence in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean.

And Putin succeeded.

And if the war in Syria stops one day, it will not stop without the consent of Russia.

The Kremlin has made itself a major player in others' domestic conflicts as well, including the dispute over gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean.

In addition, Syria is a model land for the Russian army in its first large-scale operations since Russia's war with Georgia in 2008, as shown in a new book I co-wrote about the Russian war in Syria from the Research Institute in Forsen Policy.

The military operations proceeded more smoothly than most Russian and foreign analysts had expected, which shows that Russia can intervene beyond its borders with relative ease.

There are still serious limitations to the display of Russian power, but the Kremlin has devised its political goals while these limitations were on its mind.

When Russia entered Syria for the first time, some Western observers wondered whether Syria would become Putin's Afghanistan.

Even Moscow did not think that way.

The Russian army sees Syria as its "good war," says American military analyst Michael Kaufman.

Russian officers must serve in Syria to be promoted.

They view their operations in Syria as a case study for improving performance in the future.

Accordingly, Syria is unique compared to Russia's recent wars.

As for Russia's wars now underway in the city of Donbas in Ukraine, they cannot be discussed openly, and the army’s performance in the 2008 Georgia war has been criticized for its operational inefficiency.

But Syria is considered an exemplary success.

But the question now arises as to what exactly has Russia succeeded?

Russia certainly does not want to make peace in Syria.

It is well known that the peace talks brokered by Russia between the Syrian government and the various opposition groups have not reached any result, despite efforts made over several years, and Russia does not want to clearly stop the ongoing fighting in northeastern Syria.

Putin announced publicly that Russia was intending to withdraw from Syria, first in 2016 and again in 2017. But Russia has shown no indications that it is withdrawing.

This can be compared to the position of the United States in Syria, which, like Russia, has a small ground battalion, but relies on local forces to do the fighting when needed.

Washington is still discussing its exit strategy since the first day of the outbreak of the war in Syria, and it is caught between the desire to withdraw from the never-ending war, and the concern that the possibility of its withdrawal could further destabilize Syria.

The Kremlin has no such ambivalence about the war in Syria.

An exit strategy is not included in Russia's strategic thinking about the Middle East.

What is required is not to win, in order not to leave.

Russia's goal is to survive, to make Russia a major player in the region, and then to defend this new role.

The Kremlin believes that the anniversary of Russia’s entry into the Syrian war is not an opportunity to think about an endless war, but rather an opportunity to celebrate success, and hope to continue well into the second half of the next decade.

Chris Miller: American writer

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Russia has not provided any funds to rebuild Syria, in the hope that Western countries will eventually pay the reconstruction bill to avoid a further flow of refugees to Europe.

The Kremlin has made itself a major player in others' domestic conflicts as well, including the dispute over gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean.

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