Donald Trump with folded arms in the Oval Office of the White House, August 27, 2018. -

Evan Vucci / AP / SIPA

From our correspondent in the United States,

He survived the Russia Inquiry, Stormy Daniels, and the Ukraine Impeachment.

But in the home stretch of the campaign, Donald Trump faces two formidable enemies: the Covid, and himself.

And while he is down sharply in the polls since his highly contested performance in the debate against Joe Biden, the US president could lead his party to Congress.

Air hole in the polls

For Donald Trump, the cacophony of the first televised debate seems to have been a turning point.

In ten days, the gap has gone from 6 to 10 points ahead for Joe Biden, according to the average of Real Clear Politics.

Even studies for Fox News or the conservative Rasmussen Institute give the Democrat a 10 and 12 point margin.

In ten days, since the 1st debate, the Biden-Trump gap has gone from +6 to +10 in the average of national polls.

The gap is widening in PA, WI, MI, and Trump must even defend the "sunbelt".

Republicans worried about a blue wave on Congress.

pic.twitter.com/Iqiw3ONdi1

- Philippe Berry (@ptiberry) October 9, 2020

For the American president, the picture is darkening everywhere in the "swing states".

Joe Biden widens the gap in Pennsylvania and the Midwest (Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota).

In free fall among seniors, women and in the affluent suburbs, the American president has apparently redirected his advertising budget to defend the “sun belt” (Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, in particular).

Joe Biden even leads the race in Arizona, a state the Democrats have only won once in fifty years, with Bill Clinton in 1996.

The electoral card, with the magic number of 270 electors pic.twitter.com/5DyhRKFvrI

- Philippe Berry (@ptiberry) October 9, 2020

FiveThirtyEight's model gives Biden a winner in 85% of the simulations.

Admittedly, the site founded by Nate Silver also favored Clinton (71%) but the current margins of Joe Biden are between two and three times greater than in 2016, which limits the potential of a last-minute surprise.

Republicans worry about the Senate

At present, the Democrats are therefore largely favored to win the White House, but also to retain control of the House of Representatives.

And if it's going to be tighter in the Senate (with only a third renewed), Republicans are starting to worry about their 3-seat majority.

According to the

New York Times

, Senator John Cornyn, on waiver in favor of Texas, complained privately that Donald Trump, who is capping at 42% of voting intentions, is pulling his camp down.

In Arizona, in particular, ex-astronaut Mark Kelly seems particularly well on the way to dislodging Republican Martha McSally.

The Senate card at 47-46 for the Ds, with 7 tight states.

Favorable ballot for the D in 3 (IA, MI, ME).

Everything could be played out in South Carolina, with Lindsey Graham playing for survival, and in the North: Thillis (R) infected with Covid, Cunnigham (D) weighed down by his mistresses pic.twitter.com/OMjI2KJaPk

- Philippe Berry (@ptiberry) October 9, 2020

On the current map, based on polls, the Democrats are at 47-46, with seven tight senators who should tip the scales.

Democrats are on a favorable run in three states: Iowa, Maine and Michigan.

On November 3, we will be watching North Carolina in particular.

Outgoing Republican Thom Tillis is part of the Rose Garden Covid cluster, and Democrat Cal Cunningham is weighed down by revelations about two alleged mistresses.

In the South, it is Donald Trump's lieutenant, Lindsey Graham, who is playing for survival against the young African-American candidate Jaime Harrison.

Graham is the head of the Senate Judiciary Committee and will play a central role in the battle to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

At the end of September, he lamented on Fox News: “I am being killed financially, this money is because they (the left) hate me.

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World

Debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden: A chaotic wrestling match without a winner

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