Nagorno-Karabakh: towards an open war between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

The capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, Stepanakert, suffered extensive shellfire on October 4, 2020. Karo Sahakyan / Armenian Government / AFP

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5 mins

Armenian separatist forces of Nagorno-Karabakh and the Azerbaijani army continued their clashes relentlessly on Monday, October 5, the day after a day marked by the bombing of urban areas which caused civilian casualties.

A turning point in this conflict, which threatens to degenerate into open war between Baku and Yerevan.

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With our special envoys to Goris,

Régis Genté,

Anissa El Jabri

and

Bertrand Haeckler

Armed fighting of varying degrees of intensity that started overnight [Sunday to Monday] continues to rage throughout

 " the line of contact, said Chouchane Stepanian, a spokeswoman for the Armenian ministry of defense. Defense.

The Karabakh separatists' Foreign Ministry indicated that their capital, Stepanakert, populated by 50,000 inhabitants on Monday morning, was targeted by “ 

intensive rocket fire

 ”.

This Sunday evening, the Azerbaijani president made the

departure of separatist forces

from the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh

a condition for a ceasefire

.

But for now, we seem far from a truce.

Because this conflict, started a week ago, on September 27, took a turn on Sunday.

A dark day when the fighting on the front line remained intense.

According to official reports, these bombings, including rockets, killed four residents of the self-proclaimed republic, and five in Azerbaijan.

As well as many injured.

Fighting beyond the front line

Azerbaijan claims the capture of several villages, in what are called the " 

occupied territories

 " around the secessionist province, in particular that of Djabrail, which the Armenian side denies.

More importantly, the fighting has gone beyond the front line.

On Sunday morning, the Nagorno-Karabakh capital, Stepanakert, was hit dozens of times by rockets and other long-range projectiles.

Stepanakaert was still sleeping yesterday morning when the warning siren sounded in the wake of the first explosions.

This time, the ammunition was of much larger caliber.

Holes in the asphalt, destroyed apartments, black smoke several meters high in the sky.

In the rare moments of respite, the departures of civilians from the capital were accelerated.

This Sunday afternoon, it is hardly if we crossed a silhouette which hurried in the streets.

This attack by Stepanakert, unprecedented since the start of hostilities, is a response, according to Baku, to the attack launched by the Armenian side on Azerbaijan's second city, Gandja and its airport located nearly 100 kilometers from the line. head on.

Violent shots

Another symbolic city affected in the afternoon, Chouchi (or Choucha in Azeri), located 8 kilometers from the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh.

A medieval citadel city, important to Armenians and Azerbaijanis alike, with mosques and a large church with gray stones and biblical paintings.

In this city so far almost untouched by attacks, a violent shot would have killed 4 people and injured at least 20 others.

Civilians took refuge in a cultural center in the city.

On the way back to Armenia, about twenty ambulances were going to the scene at high speed on a road soaked by the storm, all headlights off for safety reasons, instructions given to each vehicle.

Regional concern

This is a marked escalation of the conflict, even though no ballistic missiles were used.

This increase in the intensity of the fighting worries the South Caucasus.

This very sensitive region, located at the gates of Russia, the traditional regional arbiter, Turkey, allied with Azerbaijan, and

Iran

, does not need a direct conflict between Yerevan and Baku.

The Turks are already accused of adding fuel to the fire by encouraging Azerbaijan to go on a military offensive and are strongly suspected of having deployed

pro-Turkish Syrian mercenaries

in Nagorno-Karabakh.

This Sunday evening, faced with the violence of the bombings affecting inhabited areas, Russia was worried about this turning point.

His Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed his concern to his Armenian counterpart at " 

the increase in the number of victims among the civilian population

 ".

He reiterated the call of Russia, the main regional power, for " 

a ceasefire as soon as possible

 ".

To read also: Defense: the stakes of the territorial conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh

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