ANALYSIS: Risk that the EU's threat to Turkey will make matters worse

As expected, there were no sanctions against Turkey.

After Thursday night's extraordinary EU summit, it was clear that Greece and Cyprus will have to settle for a subtle warning to Turkey.

Penalties are only at hand if Turkey's provocations in the Mediterranean do not end. 

Instead, Brussels hopes for a "positive agenda" and attracts with an expanded customs union and more trade with Turkey.

With thoughts of Turkey's economic crisis, it is certainly a welcome gesture in Ankara, where the EU is the most important trading partner.

The EU also promises improved conditions in migration cooperation, a bit unclear if it means more money that Turkey demands. 

The ball is in the court of Erdogan

All in all, a fairly accommodating counter-offer to Ankara's list of demands ahead of the meeting, even though visa-free travel for Turkish citizens was ignored. 

So far, the EU's proposal has been met with silence in Turkey, which can perhaps be interpreted as meaning that the Turkish government is not immediately hostile in any case.

The ball is now in the court of President Erdogan.

The question is whether this is enough for him to be able to breathe his last on the search for gas in areas in the eastern Mediterranean, to which Greece and Cyprus believe they belong. 

The question is also how Ankara reacts to the very subtle threats of sanctions.

The Turkish government is clearly resentful of its relationship with the EU and has previously reacted with strong anger to all EU talk of imposing sanctions. 

There is a risk that even subtle threats can increase the will to fight.

This is most evident in the tense relationship with French President Macron, who has become a new object of hatred in Turkey. 

France is challenging Turkey's military ambitions not only in the Mediterranean, but also in Syria, Libya and most recently in the armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Contemptuously against the EU

But during the EU summit, it still became Angela Merkel's firm line that dialogue is the best way forward with Turkey. 

Many EU critics say there is something ridiculous about Brussels' inability to use hard nips in foreign policy.

A parody account on Twitter that takes note of this is "Is EU concerned?"

which draws attention to the fact that the EU constantly repeats how "deeply concerned" and "very worried" they are in regularly recurring word choices. 

From the Turkish side, there is often a similar scornful tone about the EU's flatness, even though the government in Ankara at the same time wants to beat its breasts when it shook hands and negotiated a deal. 

At the same time, the NATO defense alliance states that a mechanism has now been established between the two member states, Turkey and Greece, to avoid military incidents.

It is, I guess, a more effective grip on Ankara than the EU's calls.

If I know the Turkish Government correctly, the quarrel in the Mediterranean will be toned down or perhaps completely stopped for the time being. 

But the risk is probably great that Ankara is already making plans on how they can kick Brussels on the narrow legs next time to gain advantages in the negotiating game in the squeaky co-operation pact between the EU and Turkey.