Mediapart: The conflict in Nagorno Karabakh may become a major war

The French site, Mediapart, said that the renewed clashes in the Nagorno Karabakh region between Azerbaijan and Armenia have turned into a "small war" and no longer a series of skirmishes like the ones that have been occurring regularly since the "Four Day War" in 2016, and suggested that there are no prospects for negotiations. It is what prompted Baku to go on the offensive.

Jean-Pierre Perrin said

that the conflict over the Nagorno Karabakh region, which is inhabited by a majority of Armenians, may be the most explosive of 6 regional conflicts that arose out of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, because it is mixed with ethnic violence, historical and regional conflicts, and the interference of some powers, especially Turkey and Russia.

The writer explained that the burning scenes of tanks and armored vehicles displayed by the two countries indicate that the clashes around the Armenian enclave are violent, which raises fears expressed by Armenian Prime Minister Nicole Pachinyan that it may turn into a "major war with unpredictable consequences."

The writer pointed out that Armenia issued a decree for "public mobilization" and imposed "martial law" for the first time since 1990, and that Azerbaijan spoke the same warlike dialect, as President Ilham Aliyev declared martial law and curfew in Baku and other major cities and near the front line.

Calendula offers

At the moment, the Turkish army published a map showing the advancement of the Azerbaijani forces over the entire "contact line", which means that the Azerbaijani army took the initiative and regained control of several villages.

The writer reclaimed the history of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, noting that horrific ethnic violence had preceded it in the two countries even before the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and that the war between them began immediately after the departure of the Soviet army, in a bet based on the acquisition of Nagorny Karabakh, a province of Azerbaijan mainly inhabited by The Armenians declared their independence with the support of Armenia in 1991, without even being recognized by Armenia itself.

This conflict continued until 1994 with two major Armenian attacks in 1992 and 1993, in which about 30,000 people were killed, and about 400,000 Armenians and 800,000 Azeris became refugees, and the Armenian forces also seized the enclave, and not only that, but annexed all the lands between it. And between Armenia.

Since then - as the writer says - the small separatist republic, whose population does not exceed 150,000 people in more than 4,400 square kilometers, has been totally dependent for its survival on financial aid under the ceasefire regime.

However, Azerbaijan did not surrender and did not back down from regaining Nagorny Karabakh, and above all the border lands that separate the separatist enclave from Armenia, so the border between the two countries remains one of the most militarized places in Eurasia, especially since the peace talks have never succeeded.

The funeral of a member of the Azerbaijani armed forces who was killed in the conflict around Nagorno Karabakh (Reuters)

Frozen Struggle

In an attempt to put an end to the conflict, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe established a structure of 11 states in 1992 called the Minsk Group, but this group remained blatantly ineffective, says writer specializing in Caucasian affairs Jean-Louis Gouraud, and thus the chances of reaching a solution were slim. The United States was indifferent to the issue, France was powerless, and the Russians were unwilling to end the conflict, which they used to persuade Armenia to join the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military-political structure led by Moscow that was supposed to balance NATO.

Guru adds that Nagorny Karabakh is one of those famous frozen conflicts whose continuation can only be explained by serving those who have the means to settle them, especially since Moscow can impose peace negotiations on both sides, but - for its own interests - prefers to keep this wound open, pointing out. The great resources of Azerbaijan and the Armenian experience in trade could have turned the enclave into a story of economic prosperity.

And if Moscow's position was tilted toward Baku in the past, even though it armed the two parties in favor of its military-industrial complex, today it is tilting more towards Armenia - according to what the writer says - with the presence of a Russian base and border guards on its territory and a binding military agreement for the two countries.

On the other hand, the writer pointed out that Turkey has openly engaged with Baku, as the defense minister confirmed that Ankara would support Azerbaijan "with all its means", and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to provide assistance to his "Azerbaijani brothers."

In this context, expert Sergey Markidonov says in a contribution to the Carnegie Center Research Institute in Moscow, "This new escalation cannot be said that Turkey is the cause, but with the talks stalled, Ankara undoubtedly contributed to Azerbaijan taking a tougher stance."

Disappointment

But this - according to the writer - does not mean that Azerbaijan falls under the rule of Ankara, but rather that it has established excellent relations with the United States and Georgia, as the pipeline that allows it to export oil extracted from the Caspian Sea passes to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea, and has also diversified its supplies. Of weapons through an alliance with Israel, which supplies it with oil and receives advanced defense systems, including drones and missiles.

In 2016, President Aliyev announced that his country had signed a contract worth $ 5 billion with Tel Aviv, angering Armenia, which has the best relations with Iran, which has offered to mediate, although Baku is expected to refuse.

The writer pointed out that the clashes in previous times did not lead to a serious resumption of talks, which disappointed Baku, which was revived by the arrival of Nicole Pachinyan to power after the "Velvet Revolution" in 2018, as it seemed that he had nothing to do with Nagorny Karabakh, except that the opposite happened. When he seemed a strong supporter of the region more than his predecessor.