From the Caucasus:
Naka conflict may detonate Ya-A full-scale war
On September 27, the worst conflict since 2016 broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh (Naka) region, located in the South Caucasus.
Since then, the two countries accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement and took the lead in launching a military offensive.
Observers here pointed out that Armenia announced the implementation of general military mobilization, while Azerbaijan has entered a state of war. This has clearly shown that this conflict is significantly different from the frictions over the years. If the two sides do not exercise restraint and the international community’s mediation efforts are insufficient, the conflict may evolve into an Asian-African conflict. Full-scale war between.
Large-scale conflict broke out in Naka
The Naka conflict began in February 1988.
At that time, the Naka region was an autonomous prefecture of the Soviet Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic.
Here, ethnic Armenians make up the majority.
They demanded to leave Azerbaijan and merge into the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic.
Immediately, clashes broke out between the Yah and Aha tribes living in Nakka.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the two independent countries of Asia and Afghanistan broke out in a war for Naqqa, and Afghanistan lost control of Nakka and the 7 surrounding areas.
Under the mediation of the Minsk Group of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (predecessor of the OSCE) under the co-chairs of Russia, the United States and France, the two countries reached an agreement on a comprehensive ceasefire in the Naka region in 1994.
After more than 20 years, the two sides of Asia and Afghanistan were in a state of hostility in Naqqa, and armed conflicts occurred from time to time.
In recent years, Azerbaijan, whose economic strength has risen, has become more and more willing to gain control of Naka, while Armenia wants to maintain the status quo.
Regarding which side fired the "first shot", both sides of Asia and Afghanistan have their own opinions.
According to Sputnik News Agency, the Ministry of Defense of Afghanistan stated on September 27 that the Asian armed forces fired artillery at residential areas near the Naka contact line; the Ministry of Asian Defense issued a message saying that the Naka area was "under shelling and missile attack."
The "Republic of Naka", which is not internationally recognized, said that its "capital" Stepanakert and many other settlements were shelled first.
The Russian Satellite News Agency quoted the spokesperson of the Ministry of Defense of Asia on the 28th as saying that the "Naka Republic" army successfully stopped Azerbaijan's offensive operations near the line of contact.
He stated that the National Defense Forces of the "Naka Republic" caused a lot of losses to the enemy's fresh troops and equipment. So far, it has destroyed 22 tanks and 10 armored vehicles and killed more than 370 enemy soldiers.
The Afghan Ministry of National Defense announced that the Afghan army destroyed a large number of active forces, military installations and equipment of the Armenian army in battles in different directions on the front line on the 27th and 28th.
On the 27th, Armenia imposed martial law and general military mobilization, announcing that men between the ages of 18 and 55 could only leave the country with written permission from the military committee.
At the same time, President Aliyev approved the implementation of martial law and curfew in many cities and announced some military mobilizations.
Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan pointed out that Afghanistan’s re-declaration of war on Asia puts the South Caucasus on the brink of full-scale war, and an unpredictable situation may arise.
Aliyev believes that Afghanistan’s "counter-offensive action" will succeed and end the "injustice" of Armenia's 30-year occupation of Naka.
Ya-Ah "quasi-war" shocked the world
The question of the ownership of Naka in the Caucasus is a "gunpowder barrel" left over after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
After the outbreak of large-scale conflicts, it immediately became the focus of world public opinion.
Russia, the United States and France, the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is responsible for mediating the Naqqa conflict, expressed their hope that both parties to the conflict will exercise restraint.
According to the proposal of the Asian side, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with Pashinyan on the 27th to discuss the situation in the Naka region.
The Russian President’s Press Secretary Peskov stated that the Kremlin called for an immediate cessation of military operations in Naqqa and that “the conflict should be resolved through political and diplomatic channels.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry also issued a statement on the 28th, hoping that all external forces will exercise restraint and refrain from joining the Asian-African conflict.
US State Department spokesman Otagus stated on the 27th that the United States firmly condemned the escalation of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Naka region and called for an immediate ceasefire between the two countries.
Earlier, US Deputy Secretary of State Biegun separately called the foreign ministers of Asia and Afghanistan, calling on the two sides to use existing communications to communicate directly to avoid further escalation of the conflict.
French President Macron had a phone conversation with Pahinyan and Aliyev on the 27th, calling on both Armenia and Azerbaijan to "stop fighting and resume dialogue immediately."
In addition, on the 27th, UN Secretary-General Guterres expressed extreme concern over the outbreak of a new round of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Naka region, calling on both sides to immediately stop fighting.
Unlike Russia, the United States, and the United Nations "persuing peace," Turkey, the neighboring country of Asia and Afghanistan, clearly stands on the side of Azerbaijan.
Turkish President Erdogan called for "the overthrow of the Naka leader Harut Yuyang", calling on the Armenians to "oppose their government dragging the country into the abyss of war and disaster" and calling on the world to "support those who are fighting oppression and injustice." Azerbaijan".
Some media here revealed that Turkey has sent thousands of armed personnel to the conflict zone to support Azerbaijan.
Also as a regional power, Iran expressed its willingness to facilitate dialogue between Asia and Afghanistan.
Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif emphasized on social media on the 27th that the war and hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Naka region must be stopped and dialogues should be started immediately. International mediators have not made any efforts to stop the conflict in the past few months. Willing to mediate the dialogue between the two parties.
Russia-US "real" position attracts attention
The disintegration of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War brought a series of geopolitical collisions to the Eurasian region, such as the Moldova conflict, the eastern Ukraine conflict, and the Crimea’s “entry into Russia”. The current conflict in the Naka region is the latest one. A bloody scene.
What people are most concerned about at this time is the true position of Russia and the United States in the Naka conflict.
Observers here pointed out that Russia is really "persuading peace."
On the one hand, Armenia is an ally of Russia, is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization of the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia, and has deployed Russia’s Gyumri military base in its territory; on the other hand, Russia has strengthened its cooperation with Azerbaijan in recent years. interactive.
Taking advantage of Afghanistan's willingness to get more support on the Naqqa issue, Russia has actively promoted Russia-Afghanistan cooperation in the fields of energy, economy and trade, and bilateral relations have made continuous progress.
It is reported that the runner-up has asked the Russian electronic warfare unit to provide assistance to it to deal with the UAV attack of the Turkish army.
However, Russia has not been involved in the conflict so far.
As the most influential country in the world, especially in the Eurasian region, Russia is striving to play a crucial role of mediator in the conflict, trying its best to prevent the Naka conflict from slipping into an all-out war between Asia and Afghanistan, affecting itself in the South Caucasus. Interests.
At the same time, the role played by the United States in the Naka conflict this time is suspicious.
Russian media believe that the United States has long used geopolitical games as a starting point to disrupt the situation in Eurasia and contain Russia's influence in the region.
Potapeko, the former deputy secretary-general of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and former special representative of the Russian President for SCO affairs, said in an exclusive interview with our reporter that Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkey, which supports Azerbaijan, are all dialogue partner countries of the SCO. "The Naqqa dispute has turned into a serious conflict which is regrettable and worrying."
He believes that the current presidential campaign has entered a white-hot global power that thinks it can dominate the world. It is using the Naqa conflict to divert voters' criticisms of its ineffectiveness in fighting the epidemic and racial conflicts.
In stark contrast to this country, Russia is trying to get the situation back on track.
Potapeko said that since Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey all hope to improve their respective positions in the SCO, the SCO should remind the above-mentioned countries to remain rational, promote the region to return to stability, and ensure the safety and well-being of residents.
Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, posted on social media a few days ago that the danger of war is looming and that “it’s time for Russia, France, and the United States, individually or jointly, to stop the situation from continuing to ferment”.
(Our newspaper Moscow, September 29th, by our reporter Han Xianyang in Moscow)