Clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh: is a negotiated solution still possible?

Azerbaijani soldiers fire mortars on the front line opposing them to Armenian separatists on September 27, 2020. Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry via AP

Text by: Daniel Vallot Follow

6 min

The Security Council is to meet this Tuesday evening to urgently discuss the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, after two days of clashes.

A provisional assessment reported Monday evening of 95 dead, including eleven civilians.

These are the deadliest clashes since 2016 between Azerbaijani forces and Armenian separatists.

Nothing seems to be able to stop them at the moment.

Publicity

Read more

From our correspondent in Moscow,

Can we still avoid war?

This is the big question today.

Given the scale of the clashes, the already very high death toll, one can wonder if it will be possible to reach a ceasefire, as in 2016 when the fighting had ceased after a few days.

Several elements are very worrying in this regard because the military means deployed since Sunday are much greater than in 2016. Another difference, the clashes at different points of the contact line are much less localized than four years ago.

Finally, the war rhetoric and the patriotic fever which manifest itself in Armenia as in Azerbaijan are an element which can hamper the peace efforts.

We will have to act very quickly, and with very important means of persuasion, to force the belligerents to discuss and sit down at the negotiating table.

►Also read: Nagorno-Karabakh, the unrecognized powder keg of the Caucasus

Russia as a mediator?

A meeting of the UN Security Council is to be held this Tuesday evening, but what will also be decisive 

She is eagerly awaited on this issue because it was she who negotiated the previous ceasefires, in 1994 and 2016. Russia is undoubtedly the country best placed today to force the parties to the conflict to withdraw. Speaking, she is a very close ally of Armenia, but despite everything she maintains good relations with the authorities of Azerbaijan.

Historically, Russia has exercised major political, economic and diplomatic influence over the region.

Finally, and this is undoubtedly crucial, Moscow does not have much to gain in this story, and much to lose in the event of a major conflict.

Linked to Armenia by a political and military alliance, it could even be drawn directly into the conflict, in the event of an incursion of Azerbaijani forces into Armenian territory.

The problem today for Russia is the Turkish question and the fierce attitude of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which seems to incite Azerbaijan to war.

This element considerably complicates the situation for Moscow because Russia and Turkey are already opposed on two external grounds, by interposed allies: Syria and Libya.

A "frozen conflict"

A necessary historical reminder, Nagorno-Karabakh is a territory of the Caucasus which was historically mainly populated by Armenians, but which Stalin in the 1920s decided to reattach to Azerbaijan.

This is the source of this conflict which killed 30,000 people in the early 1990s when, when the USSR broke up, Nagorno-Karabakh proclaimed its independence.

Since this war which was won by the Armenians, Azerbaijan demands the return of this territory - and it should be noted that no country in the world has recognized the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh to this day.

We are therefore in a situation of "frozen conflict" typical of the former USSR with this small territory supported by Armenia, and threatened at regular intervals by Azerbaijan. 

In July, there were border incidents between Armenia and Azerbaijan, undoubtedly heralds of these clashes.

From an Azerbaijani perspective, there is the disappointment that followed

.

Rightly or wrongly, it was believed in Baku that this new leader resulting from a popular revolution in 2018 would allow progress in the peace process, but it did not happen.

On the contrary, say Azerbaijani leaders, Nikol Pashinian himself has fueled the fire by visiting Nagorno-Karabakh on several occasions and making statements considered to be very harsh on the issue.

From the Armenian point of view, on the contrary, we first point to the very significant military expenditure in Azerbaijan, a country rich in its hydrocarbons.

Expenses that would encourage him today to a military solution, rather than a negotiated solution. 

Turkey's role singled out

Turkey is Azerbaijan's traditional ally, and of course a staunch opponent of Armenia.

Turkey has increased its declarations of support, and even encouragement, for Azerbaijan - some observers believe that, with this support, Baku has decided to embark on this military adventure.

This remains to be confirmed, but what is certain is that since Sunday, Turkey has been the only country, the only regional power, which does not really call for appeasement.

Some observers therefore believe that Recep Tayyip Erdogan's current strategy, which consists of involving his country in external conflicts,

has led him to incite his Caucasian ally to launch an offensive.

This is one explanation among others - and which would undoubtedly be vehemently refuted in Baku -, the Azerbaijani authorities explaining that it is the Nagorno-Karabakh separatists and their Armenian ally who are at the origin of this new confrontation. 

Newsletter

Receive all the international news directly in your mailbox

I subscribe

Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application

google-play-badge_FR

• Azerbaijan

• Armenia

• Recep Tayyip Erdogan

• UN

• Vladimir Poutine

On the same subject

Clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh: caught in the crossfire, Russia calls for appeasement

Clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh: fear of Turkish intervention in the event of war