Xinhua News Agency, Tbilisi, September 28th, Hot Q&A: Where is the road to peace when Naka’s smoke resurrects?

　　Xinhua News Agency reporter Li Ming

　　In the early morning of the 27th, a new round of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out in the Naka region. The two sides used artillery, tanks and other heavy weapons to cross the actual control line and fire at each other, leading to escalation of tension.

Both sides accused the other of violating the ceasefire agreement.

Why did the conflict in the Naka region recur?

How will the situation develop?

How should the future road to peace go?

　　How is the conflict

　　The Armenian Ministry of Defense stated on the 28th that the current fire intensity at the scene of the exchange of fire between the two sides is unprecedented, and many villages on the side of the Asian side have been shelled.

The spokesperson of the Ministry of National Defense of Asia, Stepanyan, confirmed on the 27th that two armed helicopters and three drones of Azerbaijan were shot down during the conflict.

　　The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan stated that Armenia’s 12 air defense missile systems were destroyed in the battle, an Azerbaijan armed helicopter was shot down, and the crew survived.

As of the 28th, Armenian shelling had killed 5 people and injured many others in the village of Tatar on the Alfang side.

　　The military department of Naqa said on the 28th that at least 59 soldiers were killed and more than 100 wounded.

　　In response to the severe conflict situation, Armenia announced on the 27th that it will implement martial law and military mobilization throughout the country.

On the same day, Azerbaijan also declared that the country had entered a wartime state and imposed martial law throughout the country.

　　Why did the conflict recur

　　The Naka region was an autonomous prefecture of Azerbaijan during the Soviet period, and most of its residents were Armenians.

In 1988, Naka demanded to be incorporated into Armenia, leading to conflicts between the Azerbaijani and Armenians in the state.

After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan and Armenia broke out in a battle for Nagorny, and Armenia occupied Nagorny and its surrounding parts of Azerbaijan.

In 1994, Azerbaijan and Armenia reached an agreement on a comprehensive ceasefire, but the two countries have been in a state of hostility due to the Naka issue.

　　In 1992, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (the predecessor of the OSCE) established a Minsk group composed of 12 countries, with Russia, the United States and France as co-chairs to coordinate the settlement of the Naqqa conflict.

Since then, different levels of negotiations on the Naka issue have been held within the framework of the Minsk Group, but no substantial progress has been made in the negotiations so far.

　　Over the years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have exchanged fire from time to time in the Naka region, and there have been frequent casualties of soldiers and border residents on both sides.

The war of words between the two governments around the Naka region has never stopped.

　　Analysts believe that the outbreak of a new round of conflict in the Naqa region is still a continuation of the previous military confrontation between the two sides in the region. The new crown epidemic has severely affected the economic development of the two countries, fueled nationalism, and also encouraged the two sides to adopt foreign military operations. To divert domestic conflicting ideas.

　　Attitudes of great powers become the key

　　At present, in response to the tense Naka situation, the international community has urged the two sides to cease fire immediately and resolve their differences through peaceful negotiations.

　　United Nations Secretary-General Guterres issued a statement on the 27th, calling on the Ayas and Ayas to immediately stop the military conflict, to cool down the current tension and to resolve the issue immediately through negotiations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin urged both parties in the conflict not to take any actions that would further escalate the situation during the phone call with Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan and to immediately stop all military operations.

US President Trump also publicly stated on the 27th that he would take action to prevent the escalation of the Naqqa conflict.

　　Analysts believe that the attitudes and actions of Russia, the United States, and the European Union are important factors that determine the course of the Naqqa conflict.

The European Union is committed to transporting Azerbaijan’s Caspian natural gas to Europe via the "Southern Gas Corridor" to promote the strategy of diversifying energy sources. It definitely does not want the stability of the region to be disrupted and affect its future energy security.

　　As the most influential country in the region, Russia’s attitude is crucial.

Proceeding from its own strategic interests, at the moment when the situation in Belarus is unstable, it is absolutely not in the strategic interests of Russia to allow the Naqqa conflict to go out of control. The next mediation action by Russia may become a key factor in determining the direction of the conflict.