"Not only China will suffer": what can Trump's plans to overcome the economic dependence of the United States on the PRC lead to?

Donald Trump, in the event of his re-election as president of the United States, promised to eliminate the country's dependence on Chinese industry.

“Over the next four years, we will transform America into the world's manufacturing superpower and end our dependence on China once and for all,” Trump said at a rally in Middletown, Pennsylvania.

The head of the White House called China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 a "terrible thing".

According to him, membership in the WTO has become an incentive for the rapid industrial development of the PRC.

At the same time, the United States was unable to realize its production potential, Trump said.

From his point of view, the development of the American industrial sector will create new jobs in the country.

Trump also believes that with his coming to power, the problems of employment and economic development were successfully solved, but many achievements were canceled out by the coronavirus pandemic, of which he again blamed Beijing.

“We had the best employment indicators in history, the best economy, the best situation on the securities market in history.

Although now the market is almost at the same level.

We walked towards success together, and then became a victim of the Chinese infection (COVID-19. -

).

We have to return America to its former greatness.

Again, ”Trump said.

"We are losing billions"

Revision of trade and economic relations with the PRC and increasing employment of the population became the key theses of Trump's election rhetoric.

The current President of the United States assumes that the industry of the United States is capable of producing a fairly wide range of goods that are now imported from China.

In August, in an interview with Fox News, Trump said that the current format of trade and economic ties with the PRC caused colossal damage to the United States.

He said that he would not do business with Beijing until the Asian power "does not treat the Americans properly".

• Chinese workers make flags with the slogan Keep America Great!

  for the needs of the election campaign of Donald Trump

• Reuters

• © Aly Song

“No country has ripped us off more than China ... We are losing billions, hundreds of billions of dollars.

We get nothing from China.

Yes, certain goods come to us, which we ourselves could produce ... (but. -

) we do not receive anything.

We only lose money, ”Trump stressed.

At the same time, he is confident that the possible arrival of his rival Joe Biden in the White House will result in a catastrophic increase in the US economic dependence on Beijing.

Trump also recalled the warnings of the country's special services about the alleged plans of the PRC authorities to interfere in the American elections on the side of the Democratic Party candidate.

Speaking at a GOP convention in late August, Trump said he would push for the transfer of industrial assets of American companies from China to the United States.

In addition, if he wins the elections in ten months of his second presidential term, the current head of state has promised to create 10 million new jobs.

Experts recalled that with the arrival of Trump in the White House, trade and economic relations between Washington and Beijing have noticeably deteriorated.

In 2018, the President of the United States initiated a so-called trade war against the PRC in order to support American manufacturers.

“The bottom line is that the current administration seeks to hinder the development of knowledge-intensive industries in the PRC, especially those that allow the republic to strengthen its positions in the military sphere.

In general, Americans will be satisfied with the role of China as a supplier of consumer goods, but Beijing, given its economic ambitions, naturally does not like this option, "Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained in an interview with RT.

The main instrument of Washington in the trade war was the increase in import duties on Chinese goods.

In July 2018, the US authorities imposed duties of 25% on the import of 818 types of products from China in the amount of $ 34 billion per year.

In August last year, Trump announced an increase in the then tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 250 billion from 25% to 30%.

However, in September, he postponed the introduction of new tariffs.

According to the US President, in this way he showed a gesture of goodwill and satisfied the request of Vice Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Liu He.

• Donald Trump at a meeting with Vice Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Liu He

• © Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

In January 2020, the United States and China entered into an agreement on the so-called first phase of the trade deal.

According to the agreements reached, in the next two years, Beijing must purchase US goods for $ 200 billion, which, as expected in Washington, will significantly reduce the trade imbalance with China.

"Unjustified measure"

Trump has repeatedly said that the United States is winning the trade war with China, but this interpretation was criticized by the expert community.

So, in mid-August, Bloomberg, citing American economists, reported that Beijing was in no hurry to fulfill its obligations to purchase American goods.

According to analysts, Trump has not achieved significant success in the trade war.

Moreover, tense economic relations with Washington only served as an impetus for the development of the high-tech industry of the PRC and an increase in the export of industrial products.

• Employees of the Foxconn Technology Group, which manufactures Apple products for the US

• globallookpress.com

• © Wang Feng / Xinhua

It is noteworthy that many American companies are unhappy with Trump's anti-Chinese economic initiatives.

According to Reuters, about 3.5 thousand US enterprises have filed lawsuits challenging the legality of imposing duties on products from the PRC.

Among the opponents of the trade measures taken by the head of the White House are the industrial giants Tesla and Ford Motors, the large retailer Target Corp and the clothing manufacturer Ralph Lauren.

According to Vladimir Vasiliev, Trump's anti-Chinese economic policy seems to pursue good and quite reasonable goals related to the development of industry and the increase of jobs.

At the same time, the course announced by the head of the White House to return production from the PRC to the United States can lead to serious negative consequences for the United States, the expert says.

“At least some of the goods that will be produced within the United States will be more expensive than their Chinese counterparts.

This will affect, among other things, retail prices, and hence the wallet of an ordinary American consumer.

A truly radical reduction in imports from the PRC requires a restructuring of the American economy, the development of an appropriate long-term plan, but it is not yet available, ”Vasiliev stated.

A similar point of view is shared by the director of the RAS Institute for the Far East, Alexey Maslov.

In a commentary on RT, the expert said that the implementation of Trump's plan to massively transfer production facilities from China to the United States will inevitably result in an increase in prices for industrial products.

“Technically, what Trump is talking about means a complete rupture of economic relations with China.

Of course, this will be an unjustified measure.

It is more expedient for the United States to transfer production assets from China to other countries - India, Brazil, Argentina, and not to return enterprises to its territory.

Also, Trump, as part of his policy, could reduce the participation of Chinese investors in American business, ”the expert says.

At the same time, Alexey Maslov is confident that the continuation of the course aimed at a large-scale curtailment of trade and economic relations with Beijing, in the future, will negatively affect the high-tech industry of the United States.

“Not only China will suffer, but also the United States.

Already today, many Chinese-American companies are experiencing big problems, for example, those that supplied microchips to the PRC.

Up to 40% of these products are exported from the USA to China.

American manufacturers also incur losses from the trade war, as they are deprived of the opportunity to earn money on the Chinese market, ”Maslov explained.