After the UAE swallowed up the Egyptian economy ... why does normalization with Israel threaten the Suez Canal?

The Emirati normalization agreement with Israel raises fears that the Egyptian Suez Canal will become its first victim, in light of talk of geostrategic projects that unite them, excluding and marginalizing the Egyptian shipping route, so that Cairo remains in front of a terrifying scenario that was reinforced by the recent wave of reconciliation card with Ankara, the regional opponent of Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv. .

According to Western and Israeli press reports, Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv are discussing reviving a pipeline that avoids passing through the Suez Canal, and extends from Abu Dhabi - through Saudi territory - to the port of Eilat in the Gulf of Aqaba in the Red Sea (on the Egyptian border), and from there to Ashkelon port in the Mediterranean.

It was possible for Egypt to stand in the way of these projects, had it not given up on sovereignty over the islands of Tiran and Sanafir to Saudi Arabia, which control the entrance to the Gulf of Aqaba and the ports of Aqaba in Jordan and Eilat in Israel, and are located on a stretch of strategic importance, representing Israel’s route to entering the Red Sea.

Israel is citing the marketing of the pipeline to be launched with the Emirates, that the sea route passing from the Arabian Sea, the Straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, through the Suez Canal in the Red Sea, has become more costly in terms of material and security in light of the military skirmishes in Yemen and the spread of piracy, according to "Globe" magazine. Israeli economic mid-month.

Egyptian fears

The fears of normalization are also reinforced by the head of the Suez Canal Authority, Lieutenant General Osama Rabie, that the canal is facing the challenges of having a less expensive land competitor, and his assertion that the pipeline “could transport oil to Europe ..” and that there are regional arrangements affecting Egyptian national security.

Despite confirming that there are "limited repercussions", Rabei expressed his fear of concentrating Gulf goods in the hands of Israel, saying: "We bet and rely on Arabism that intra-trade with Israel is based on not affecting the Suez Canal significantly."

Egypt had spent $ 8.5 billion in 2015 to create a new branch for the canal, but it did not fulfill the promises made by Sisi, other than legitimizing the UAE's penetration into the joints of the Egyptian economy, especially the strategic projects in the canal axis.

Recently, the Egyptian-Turkish reconciliation paper returned to the fore, in light of the diminishing intensity of the rhetoric between the two countries and the talk of high-level intelligence coordination that may develop into open political horizons, reinforced by changing the calculations of the forces on the ground in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean, in addition to the accelerated pace of normalization with More than one Gulf country, according to observers.

Objectives and dimensions of normalization

Jordanian political analyst Jawad Al-Hamad, head of the Center for Middle East Studies (based in Amman), indicated that Israel is targeting the Suez Canal through direct land and air communication with the Gulf states and their ports, as part of geostrategic, economic, security and political goals under American pressure, which does not rule out besieging Jordanian Palestinians to accept the deal of the century. And the Israeli annexation plans.

In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Hamad warned that the activation of the Israeli-Emirati project could reduce the global trade movement that passes through the Suez Canal, and the possibility that the Gulf countries could export oil through pipelines through Israeli ports (including Ashkelon) on the Mediterranean to Europe and America, as well as The two countries may agree to consider Dubai as an intermediary station for the transport of Chinese and Asian goods to Europe and America, and then through Israeli ports as well.

 Egyptian papers

In order to avoid catastrophic scenarios for Egypt, Al-Hamad called on Cairo to reject the path of normalization and fear it a lot politically, economically and on the security level, indicating that it has several papers to reject this path, the first of which is "developing and activating better relations with Gaza and Hamas on the one hand, and with the Palestinian Authority on the other hand." And encourage them to agree and unity, and support the Palestinian position against the deal of the century and the annexation plan. "

He added, "Egypt has the right to close Egyptian, Jordanian and Iraqi coordination - as affected countries - to confront this transformation, as happened in a limited way in Amman last month (referring to the Egyptian-Jordanian-Iraqi summit in Amman)."

Al-Hamad called on Egypt to "take a courageous and important turn in developing its relations with Turkey, to solve the Libyan crisis and develop Ankara's investments in Cairo, especially since there is a strategic direction for this by Turkey, and to contribute to a speedy end to the Syrian crisis in cooperation with Turkey, Iran, Russia, Iraq and Jordan simultaneously." .

Egypt also has - according to Al-Hamad - to "establish a coordinating body for energy and gas with Jordan, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and Turkey, parallel to the Eastern Mediterranean Organization, so that it has more freedom in its choices, and so that Israel does not think that it is able to limit, weaken and besiege its leadership role in the region." .

Intelligence convergence

In turn, the Egyptian academic and researcher in political science Muhammad Al-Zawawi warned of the Emirati policies "devoid of the value dimension, after the collapse of the Arab system and the Gulf Cooperation Council."

In his interview with Al-Jazeera Net, he said, "The normalization agreement with Israel was nothing but the tip of the iceberg under which hides a great intelligence rapprochement between the Emirates and the Zionist entity, extending to coordination in pursuing activists and social movements in the Arab world, in addition to sabotaging regional port projects that they acquired, whether In Djibouti, Eritrea, Somalia, and the intervention in Yemen, and others, in order to keep the Dubai Port Company from competition. "

He added, "The support for the military coup in Egypt by the UAE came after the government of the late President Mohamed Morsi expressed Sinai development projects, including logistical projects to serve ships in the Suez Canal area."

Tabline line

Al-Zawawi warned of the repercussions of the Gulf-Israeli normalization on the interests of Egypt, explaining that "Saudi Arabia can also enter the same line by restarting the Tapline line (the world's longest oil transport) by reducing the transportation cost, even at Egypt's expense.

The Tabline line extends from the coast of the Arabian Gulf in Saudi Arabia to the coast of the Mediterranean Sea, and oil exports through it were stopped after Israel occupied the Golan Heights (in 1990).

Al-Zawawi added, "Israel itself has bypassed Egypt in its agreement with Greece, Cyprus and Italy (early 2020), in order to work the East Mediterranean pipeline project by ignoring Egypt, which was aiming to be a crossing for eastern Mediterranean gas by liquefying it and exporting it to Europe."

The Egyptian political analyst attributed the existence of an Egyptian-Turkish intelligence dialogue, to that “Egypt's goal now is to break the isolation imposed on it by exporting gas to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, and then to Europe, which is the least expensive route to Cairo, as its infrastructure is located from the city of El-Arish, Egypt, to the Syrian port of Banias. "