Data modeling simulates the second wave of epidemics in Europe, and the peak period may last until January next year
On the 23rd, the journal Science Reports under Natural Science published a mathematical study. In response to the return of the epidemic, scientists used infection rate data and travel data within and between European countries to simulate the second wave of new crowns in Europe in the next few months. How the pneumonia epidemic might happen.
The results show that the second wave of epidemics in Europe will occur between July 2020 and January 2021. The precise peak period of infection rates in European countries may be controlled by social distancing, local hotspot control and border control measures.
In the latest study, scientists at the Lyon Institute of Nuclear Physics and the University of Southern Denmark used data from the first wave of the epidemic and considered a 15% change in infection rate.
Their simulation found that the peak of the second wave of epidemics is highly dependent on the infection rate, and countries with higher infection rates are expected to usher in the peak sooner.
If social isolation and responsible personal behavior are implemented early, they will have a significant impact on the timing of peak periods.
At present, 10 countries in Europe have seen signs of the second wave of epidemics in early August. They are Belgium, Bosnia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Greece, the Netherlands, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain.
Therefore, the research team simulated the time dynamics of the second wave of epidemics in all European countries and produced a simulation video showing the possible time of the peak of the second wave of epidemics in each country.
The results show that the peak period may occur between July 2020 and January 2021, but the specific time of each country may be controlled by border control, social isolation and local hotspot control measures.
The research team said that their model can be easily adjusted based on new available data. The government, financial markets, industries, and individual citizens may be able to use this useful tool to prepare in advance to deal with the threat of a resurgence of the epidemic.