Usually the economic recovery process takes one of five forms, which are the letters "L", "U", "W", and "V" and sometimes the letter "Z".
More than 600 executives from all over the world have been questioned, and 42% of them expect that the recovery will take the U-shape.
Writer Iman Ghosh says, in a report published by the "World Economic Forum" website, that the responses of these executives were different and contradictory according to the regions they come from, as only 26% of Japanese managers support this belief.
Whenever the economy passes through pitfalls and periods of uncertainty, expectations differ between a pessimist and optimistic about the prospects for recovery and recovery of activity.
This same situation applies now to decision-makers in the economic field as we are walking in the heart of the Coronavirus storm.
Overall, the economic recovery takes many forms, and each has connotations.
In general, there are 4 scenarios that are considered the most likely, based on the opinions of a large group of executives from all over the world.
This scenario involves a sharp downturn in the economy followed by a slow recovery period.
It is often characterized by the continuing unemployment crisis and lack of jobs, and it takes several years to restore pre-crisis levels.
This scenario is characterized by continuing economic recession for several quarters, and it may reach two years of contraction before a relative breakthrough occurs and economic indicators return to head towards the top.
This scenario makes brilliant promises of recovery, and then plunges back into deterioration so that it can finally achieve a full recovery in up to two years.
This scenario is referred to as the "bilateral crisis," which is exactly what happened in the 1980s.
This scenario represents the best assumptions, and indicates that the sharp deterioration in the economy will be followed immediately by a rapid recovery and a return to the recorded economic recovery figures, within a period not exceeding one year, taking advantage of economic measures and consumer spending.
There is another scenario that was not mentioned, which is the Z-shaped recovery process, which is characterized by a revolution after the stagnation of demand, but this scenario is not in line with the situation of the Corona virus crisis that the world is currently experiencing, and it is considered more optimistic than the V-shaped scenario.
The author indicates that the matter varies according to the person to whom the question is asked, but it seems that feelings about recovery in the post-Corona virus stage appear to differ sharply.
How do managers view the recovery assumptions?
The Conference Board Center for Business and Economic Studies has questioned more than 600 executives around the world, to find out how they feel about the prospects and expectations for a recovery scenario that looks set to materialize in the near future.
And 42% of executives said that the economic recovery will take the shape of the letter U, believing that the economy will achieve a slow recovery in the third quarter of 2020, and this is a slightly optimistic outlook.
But according to the author, geography seems to influence the views of these managers and their expectations about the speed and scenarios for the economy to return to normal, as more than half of the managers in Europe (55%) believe in the possibility of a U-scenario, which is higher than the global average.
The reason for this belief may be that the hotbeds of the Coronavirus outbreak have recently moved to other regions outside the old continent, such as the United States, India and Brazil.
In Japan and the United States, 22% of executives expect a second recession, which means that global economic activity will take the letter W. These two countries have suffered a painful blow due to the Corona virus, but there are big differences between them in the high unemployment rate, as It reached 15% in the United States and did not exceed 2.6% in Japan.
In China, 21% of executives say the recovery process will be swift and take the shape of the letter V. It appears that managers in East Asia are the most optimistic, and there are good reasons for this.
Although the economic contraction reached 6.8% in the first quarter, China made a leap after that, reaching a growth rate of 3.2% in the second quarter.
Finally, there are also CEOs in the Arab Gulf region, who are more pessimistic about the fate of the economy.
Faced with the oil price shock, 57% of them expect that the economy will run in the shape of the letter L, which means that the crisis and recession will continue in the coming years.
In the end, the author says that the opinions of executives differ according to the regions from which they come from, and this diversity has its explanation in geography and cultural differences, in addition to the situation experienced by the countries and the economic sectors to which they belong.
In spite of that, a good percentage of all those involved in this field believe that there are real opportunities to achieve a recovery on solid foundations.
And earlier this year, risk analysts at the World Economic Forum had voiced these same ideas, predicting that a prolonged recession would be the biggest risk in the post-coronavirus phase.
What remains to be seen now is what will happen, and what form will economic indicators take on the road to recovery?