A campaign poster by Matteo Salvini, leader of the Northern League, in Venaria (Italy).
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Riccardo Giordano / IPA / I / SIPA
Voting day with our Italian neighbors.
They elect their regional executives and must also respond to a referendum on reducing the number of parliamentarians.
The Italian far right hopes to seize new regions in the hands of the left, including Tuscany, a “red” bastion whose loss would shake the government of Giuseppe Conte without necessarily bringing it down.
Voters began voting on Sunday morning and have until 3 p.m. (local time) this Monday to come and drop their ballots by following strict security protocols, in this country where the prevalence of the coronavirus has been rising for seven weeks.
Sunday evening, participation already reached almost 40%, a very honorable level in the context.
Results known this Monday evening
Six regions - four on the left (Tuscany, Campania, Puglia and Marche), two on the right (Liguria and Veneto) - must elect new presidents.
The left-right score at the end of the regional results, announced this Monday evening, will not fail to be stirred under the nose of the government of Giuseppe Conte, a coalition formed a year ago between the 5 Star Movement (M5S) and the Party. Democrat (PD, center left).
Without however implying a fall of the current government, which must get down to presenting a recovery plan in Brussels.
A front going from the center-right to the far right
With unique candidates, a center-right and far-right front has serious chances of seizing regions on the left.
A disaster scenario for the government would be for the right to win three of the four regions currently on the left (Campania seeming out of danger).
The right already rules 13 Italian regions and the left 6.
From 945 to 600 parliamentarians?
All 46 million Italian voters are also expected to vote “yes” in a national referendum on reducing the number of parliamentarians, an electoral promise of the 5 Star Movement.
The number of parliamentarians would then drop from 945 to 600. Today, Italy has the second largest parliament in Europe, behind that of the United Kingdom (around 1,400), and ahead of France (925).
Still, it is perhaps the regional ones that could further modify the political landscape.
A key match in Tuscany
In Tuscany, the president of the League Matteo Salvini (far right) - losing speed in the polls - and the former democratic leader of the government Matteo Renzi - who has been trying to revive for a year with his formation Italia Viva- play big .
Chosen to seize this bastion of the left, whose symbolic value is strong: Susanna Ceccardi, a 33-year-old MEP of the League.
Faced with it, the Tuscan Renzi imposed his local candidate, Eugenio Giani (label PD / Italia Viva), who will also face an isolated candidacy of the M5S.
A defeat in Tuscany, a region known for its good functioning so far little inclined to respond to the sirens of populism, would also be unfortunate for the future of Nicola Zingaretti as President of the Democratic Party, analysts say.
"The left has neglected its base"
" The times have changed.
The left has neglected its own history, its roots, its base, ”said Roberto Bianchi, a professor of contemporary history at the University of Florence.
The right has led the offensive on the ground in recent years to seize medium-sized Tuscan towns.
“Choose change”, proclaims with a big smile on the bus posters Susanna Ceccardi, who won a town hall four years ago for the League.
Popularity contest on the far right
The regional elections also risk turning into a popularity contest among the tenors of the far right.
It is in fact candidates of Fratelli d'Italia who were chosen by the right to lead the assault in the Marche and in Puglia.
Francesco Acquaroli, criticized last year for having participated in a dinner of nostalgic for Mussolini, is running for a region of the Marche that has never been on the right.
In Puglia, Raffaele Fitto, an MEP from Fratelli d'Italia, was already president of the region fifteen years ago.
A virtual campaign for the left in Veneto
In the event of a double victory, party leader Giorgia Meloni, who has risen sharply this summer in the polls, will not fail to overshadow her northern rival Matteo Salvini.
A shattering score for a third term in Veneto for its popular Leguist president Luca Zaia would have the same effect.
It seems all the more untouchable as its left-wing competitor, positive for the coronavirus, has ended its virtual campaign from the hospital.
The right should a priori also keep Liguria, the only region where M5S and PD have yet managed to form an alliance on a candidate.
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Matteo salvini
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Italy