Significant differences reappeared in negotiations, the risk of Britain’s “no-deal Brexit” increases

　　The risk of Britain's "no-deal Brexit" increases (international perspective)

　　Core reading

　　The United Kingdom and the European Union recently concluded a new round of future relations negotiations, and the two sides have still not been able to bridge their differences in many key areas.

The outside world believes that there are only more than three months left before the end of the "Brexit" transition period at the end of the year, and the risk of "no-deal Brexit" is accumulating, and the future relationship negotiations between Britain and Europe are facing greater uncertainty.

　　On September 16, local time, European Commission President Von der Lein once again urged the United Kingdom not to unilaterally try to change, ignore or abolish the "Brexit" agreement that has been reached. "The progress of the negotiations is not as expected, and there is not much time left for the two parties to negotiate. ".

　　At present, the lower house of the British Parliament is considering the internal market bill submitted by the government on the 14th, because the bill allows the United Kingdom to modify the previous "Brexit" agreement with the European Union, triggering a strong backlash from the European Union and adding new variables to the future relationship negotiations between the two parties .

　　Internal Market Act

　　The eighth round of negotiations on future relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union recently concluded in London.

Both the UK and the EU have shown tough stances in an attempt to break the deadlock in the negotiations, but their differences in key areas such as a level playing field and fisheries have not yet been eliminated.

In the meantime, the British government promulgated the Internal Market Act, which caused disputes due to the provisions concerning Northern Ireland that were deemed to override the "Brexit" agreement, resulting in damage to mutual trust between the two parties.

　　The border and tariff arrangements between Northern Ireland and Ireland are key elements of the Brexit agreement.

According to the previously announced Internal Market Act, if the provisions concerning Northern Ireland are inconsistent with the withdrawal agreement in the "Brexit" agreement or the content of special arrangements related to Northern Ireland, the provisions of the Act shall prevail.

　　The UK government website issued a statement stating that the UK will still be committed to the implementation of the "Brexit" agreement, and the Internal Market Act aims to ensure smooth domestic trade after the "Brexit".

At present, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland apply EU rules. If emergency legislation is not passed, after the end of the "Brexit" transition period at the end of this year, the respective rules and regulatory measures formulated by the above regions may become new obstacles to domestic trade. .

　　The European Union questioned that the bill violated the "Brexit" agreement.

Michelle, President of the European Council, said that the "Brexit" agreement is an agreement reached by the UK and Europe and approved by the British Parliament. It must be fully implemented.

Von der Lein emphasized that the "Brexit" agreement reached is a prerequisite for the conclusion of any partnership in the future.

The Vice President of the European Commission Sevcovic also rushed to London to meet with the British high-level officials for this, saying that the internal market bill seriously damaged the mutual trust between Europe and Britain, and called on the UK to withdraw the bill as soon as possible and by the end of the month at the latest. Once the bill is passed, the EU may complain. All laws.

　　British Prime Minister Johnson stated that the EU is trying to set up a comprehensive trade border to put pressure on the UK and force the UK to accept EU terms. This is a threat to the peace between the UK and Northern Ireland.

The latest issue of the British "The Economist" magazine stated that the British government's announcement of the internal market bill at a critical moment of negotiation may be a negotiation strategy to require the EU to make concessions at the last minute.

　　At present, the British side has made it clear that it will not withdraw the bill.

The British media generally believe that because the Conservative Party has a majority in the House of Commons, the internal market bill under consideration is likely to be passed in the near future.

　　There is not much time left for negotiation

　　Britain officially "Brexit" on January 31, and then entered an 11-month transition period.

During the transition period, Britain and Europe must negotiate a "post-Brexit era" bilateral relationship.

Affected by the epidemic, most of the previous rounds of consultations between the two sides have stayed in place. Although the two sides expressed that they have conducted good dialogues on dispute resolution mechanisms, police and judicial cooperation, they have not been able to bridge differences in some key areas.

　　David Frost, the chief negotiator of the British side, said that progress in the eighth round of negotiations was very limited and the two sides had beneficial exchanges, but differences in key areas were very serious.

Barnier, the chief negotiator of the European Union, said that the two sides have obvious differences when it comes to the basic interests of the European Union.

　　According to reports, in terms of fisheries, EU countries previously opened up their maritime exclusive economic zones, and countries negotiated fishing quotas. The EU requires both parties to continue to open fishing areas.

The United Kingdom believes that the European Union has obtained too many rights and interests through quotas, and hopes to regain control of the fishery resources in its own waters and give British fishing vessels priority access.

On issues such as civil rights, border inspections in Northern Ireland, and the entry of the British financial industry into the EU market, the UK and the EU have their own opinions.

　　Katia Adler, the editor-in-chief of European Affairs of the British Broadcasting Corporation, analyzed that the "Brexit" negotiation issues are intertwined. Issues such as trade negotiations, Brexit procedures, fisheries rights, and financial services are all linked. Problems in negotiations in one area will affect them. To other negotiations.

Even if the two parties can reach an agreement, formulating and implementing the implementation rules will be no small test.

　　Right now, there is little time left for negotiations between Britain and Europe.

Johnson said that if the two sides fail to reach a substantive agreement before October 15, Britain will withdraw from the negotiations and both parties "should accept this fact and look forward."

Bernd Lange, chairman of the International Trade Committee of the European Parliament, also warned that if Britain and Europe want to reach an agreement, they must reach a consensus by October 31 at the latest.

　　European media generally believe that the UK and Europe need to reach an agreement on a series of issues such as trade, immigration, aviation, security, and fisheries before the end of the year, and get the approval of the two parliaments.

The governments of EU member states also need to negotiate with their domestic legislatures on the text of the agreement. Reaching an agreement before the end of October will be a difficult task.

　　Set out to prepare for various possibilities

　　According to plan, the ninth round of negotiations will be held from September 28 to October 2.

This is also the deadline for the EU to require the UK to withdraw the Northern Ireland clause in the Internal Market Act.

If the United Kingdom does not act accordingly, it will be difficult for the negotiations to continue.

Many analyses pointed out that since neither side will easily make concessions in some key areas of negotiation, the UK and Europe have realized that it is very likely that they will not be able to reach an agreement before the end of the transition period, and therefore are preparing to deal with the "no-agreement Brexit". situation.

　　Frost said after this round of negotiations that the British side is still committed to reaching an agreement before mid-October, and the two sides have agreed to continue negotiations in Brussels as planned.

The British side will make every effort to advance the negotiations, but will not easily compromise in the negotiations. The United Kingdom must prepare for various possibilities such as "no-deal Brexit".

　　Barnier stated that the EU will step up preparations for any scenarios that may arise after the transition period ends.

The EU’s previous policy documents pointed out that regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, the relationship between Britain and Europe will undergo extensive and far-reaching changes. Government departments, enterprises and citizens of all countries should be prepared to respond.

　　Reuters recently reported that the British government has advised drug suppliers to stock up on drugs that can be used for six weeks to avoid interference with drug imports when a "no-deal Brexit" situation occurs after the transition period.

The Bank of England also warned commercial banks to prepare in advance that the UK may not be able to reach a trade agreement with the EU before the end of the transition period at the end of the year.

　　There is widespread concern that a "no-deal Brexit" will bring great uncertainty to the British and European markets.

If a trade agreement cannot be reached, the UK and Europe will follow World Trade Organization rules starting next year and re-implement border inspections and tariffs, resulting in increased trade costs. This is bound to worsen the economy of the UK and Europe, which has been hit hard by the epidemic, and may also affect regional politics and security relations. Cause shock.

　　(Our newspaper, Brussels, September 17th)

Our correspondent in Belgium Zhang Penghui