[Depth] Suga Yoshihide faces the "three mountains": balancing epidemic prevention and economy, hosting the Tokyo Olympics, and coping with diplomatic challenges

　　[Global Times Special Correspondent in Japan Jiang Feng] Suga Yoshihide, who was elected president of the Democratic Party by an overwhelming number of votes two days ago, will officially become the new prime minister of Japan on the 16th.

As a core figure in the operation of the Abe regime for a long time, he has more policy coordination channels and resources, and can obtain the support of the bigwigs in the party... Yoshihide Suga has a lot of advantages, but if he wants to talk about the governance problems before him, Many media will sigh "challenging."

Japan’s new crown pneumonia epidemic is still at risk of getting out of control, and the economy has experienced a sharp and historical decline. It is still unknown whether the Olympic Games next year will be successfully held.

The economic and social issues to be resolved by the new prime minister are already very difficult. He also has to deal with complex foreign relations and seek a firm foothold in the turbulent international situation.

"This makes me wonder why anyone still wants to be the prime minister of (Japan)." It's no wonder that Jeffrey Horn, an analyst at the RAND Corporation in the United States, said this to the media.

However, challenges also mean opportunities.

Perhaps Yoshihide Suga, the civilian prime minister, can cure some of the "stubborn diseases" of Japanese society through reforms.

　　The biggest challenge is the epidemic

　　Preventing and controlling the new crown pneumonia epidemic is the biggest challenge facing the incoming Kan regime. The main difficulty lies in how to balance epidemic prevention and economic recovery.

As of the 13th, Tokyo had over 100 new cases for 6 consecutive days, and dropped to 80 on the 14th. The cumulative number of cases in Japan exceeded 76,000 and more than 1,400 deaths.

　　The epidemic has brought about the deterioration of Japan's economic environment. Entry restrictions have severely affected the "tourism economy", and self-prevention and other anti-epidemic requirements have made companies miserable.

According to data released by Tokyo Shoko Research Co., Ltd., from January to August 2020, there were 583 bankruptcies in the Japanese catering industry, an increase of 13.2% year-on-year, and it is expected to create a historical record by the end of the year.

According to a survey released by the Imperial Data Bank of Japan on the 8th of this month, a total of 500 companies have gone bankrupt or entered bankruptcy proceedings from February to August this year.

Making adjustments in the minutiae has been unable to stimulate economic recovery.

　　However, according to the New York Times, the epidemic may also create opportunities for the new Japanese prime minister to encourage social reforms to solve some deep-rooted problems.

Beginning this spring, the Japanese government urged companies to allow employees to work from home, but in fact, the "seal culture" that Japanese companies need to complete through many paper documents hindered this process.

According to a survey, only about one-fifth of employees in Japan have been working remotely.

　　"Japan’s demographic structure is facing challenges. How can we increase productivity if we don’t advance a very clear IT transformation strategy?" Kathy Matsui, chief Japanese equity strategist at Goldman Sachs in Tokyo, expressed the hope that Japan’s new prime minister would propose a strict digital strategy. And urge companies to adopt more advanced technologies.

Barbara Holsas, deputy director of the Japanese Institute in Germany, said that the promotion of telecommuting is "extraordinarily" beneficial to women in the workplace, who can better balance family and career.

　　During the election campaign, Yoshihide Suga also raised the issue of digitalization, but his main starting point was administrative digitalization.

During the response to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, due to the backward data management in Japan, the government's assistance funds for enterprises and individuals could not be issued in time, and the people complained.

Japan’s Kyodo News Agency stated that Yoshihide Suga once again emphasized the establishment of a new “Data Agency” at a press conference on the 14th, and said that he “plans to prepare as soon as possible in the direction of amending the law.”

　　However, this is not an easy task.

A person from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan said to the media, "It takes at least two months to set up an agency, and it takes half a year to fully operate."

There is a voice from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that: "The establishment of a data agency requires the promotion of 5G construction, and this must face the issue of how to deal with Chinese equipment. If you follow the United States and exclude Chinese equipment, it will constitute a problem in Japan-China relations. The new data office seems to be an internal affair, but it actually involves the diplomatic aspect."

　　The Tokyo Olympics, postponed to next year due to the epidemic, is another mountain that Yoshihide Suga needs to cross.

Due to the postponement of the Olympic Games, there has been a gap of about 400 billion yen in funding for the Olympics. Whether this money is paid by the central government or the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, it is currently in a state of "mutual deduction".

A person from the Tokyo Olympic Organizing Committee told the Global Times that Japan’s problems include the possibility of cancellation of sponsorship by some companies.

In addition, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still in an unstable state. If the "no audience" form is finally adopted, the income will be greatly reduced.

If athletes from some countries are unwilling to come to Tokyo because of the epidemic, Japan may still have to do persuasive work.

　　Groping to do "suga diplomacy"

　　In the economic field, consumption tax is a topic of great concern to the Japanese people.

In a TV Tokyo program on September 10, three Liberal Democratic Party presidential candidates responded to the question of whether the consumption tax will be further increased in the next ten years, and only Yoshihide Suga made a "yes" statement.

He explained that the persistence of the problem of aging and declining birthrates makes it imperative to raise consumption taxes.

This remark caused an uproar in public opinion.

The next day, Yoshihide Suga also stated that Prime Minister Abe said that there would be no consumption tax increase in the next 10 years, which is consistent with his own view.

　　How to inherit Abenomics is also a major challenge that Yoshihide Suga needs to overcome.

"Tokyo Shimbun" believes that as the "big steward" of the Abe regime, Yoshihide Suga has put forward all the suggestions that can be made. It is difficult for the Suga regime to do things that Abe cannot do.

During this election process, the other two candidates Shigeru Ishiba and Fumio Kishida mentioned many times that Abenomics did not give people and companies a sense of gain, nor did they distribute the results to people and companies.

Yoshihide Suga proposed that on the basis of Abenomics, the content of "local creation" should be added, that is, measures to increase the vitality of the local economy should be introduced.

　　As the "son of a farmer" from Akita Prefecture, Yoshihide Suga attaches great importance to the local economy.

He actively promotes the export of agricultural products and hopes that more Chinese tourists will travel to Japan and more foreign laborers will find employment in Japan.

During the Abe administration, Yoshihide Suga ignored the opposition of the Ministry of Justice and the National Police Agency and relaxed visas to China.

"Nihon Keizai Shimbun" said on the 14th that after Yoshihide Suga was selected as the president of the Democratic Party, the governors of Fukuoka, Okinawa, and Miyazaki have high hopes for him to revitalize the local economy.

　　In addition to the above issues, the direction of diplomatic relations is undoubtedly the focus of Japanese media attention.

In recent years, China's story and influence have spread all over the world. The United States has suppressed and contained China in trade and technology, and the relationship between the two major powers has continued to deteriorate.

How Yoshihide Suga, who lacks diplomatic experience, will handle relations with the United States and China has attracted much attention.

　　"Global Times" reporters participated in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential candidate meeting held by the Japan Press Club on the 12th.

At that time, some media raised questions about Yoshihide Suga’s diplomatic “layman”. He replied: “I participated in all major diplomatic activities of the Abe administration. Every time Prime Minister Abe calls U.S. President Trump, I always At the scene." A reporter from "Yomiuri Shimbun" said: "Your presence at the scene does not mean that this diplomatic event is hosted by you, nor does it mean that you must understand diplomacy." Yoshihide Suga said to this: "I hope you will be able to Understand that this kind of participation requires me to make a lot of preparation in advance, and this preparation process is also a process of engaging in diplomacy."

　　On the same topic of diplomacy, Yoshihide Suga said at a press conference at the Liberal Democratic Party headquarters on September 8: "Abe diplomacy is very good diplomacy. I can't do it. I can only do'Suga-style diplomacy.' Cooperating with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, we consulted Prime Minister Abe for advice and then fumbled to do it."

　　Seeking change, but afraid of change

　　It is generally believed that the advantages of Yoshihide Suga’s administration include long-term work experience as the core of the operation of the Abe regime, the ability to dispatch troops, and the backing of Toshihiro Nikai, secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party.

During Abe's tenure, Yoshihide Suga basically appeared on various occasions such as summit meetings, phone calls, and video conferences.

In terms of posture, he learned Abe's softness, seeking to maximize national interests in the process of advancing and retreating.

In actual operation, he can discuss everything with Abe.

Japan's JBpress website believes that with the help of the second-order force, Suga Yoshihide can smoothly develop relations with China, and related diplomatic achievements may surpass Abe.

　　The ability to maintain Abe's political legacy is considered one of the advantages of Yoshihide Suga's administration, but it also brings him certain controversy.

Some Japanese media believe that the focus of the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election is not on the candidates’ line, guidelines, and policies, but on whether they can inherit the operation of the Abe regime.

"The Asahi Shimbun" lamented on the 15th that the election did not have the "lively energy" of the past and lacked fierce debate. It was an election where the winner was known from the beginning.

　　A Japanese congressman who asked not to be named told the Global Times reporter that what surprised him most in this election was the overall resurrection of the Liberal Democratic Party’s “factional politics”.

After Suga Yoshihide came to power, he might devote a considerable part of his energy to "repaying" the factions who supported him. He must consider how to allocate cabinet positions and how to listen to ruling suggestions.

Abe may also want to use Suga's power to complete his unfinished business such as amending the constitution and hosting the Tokyo Olympics.

　　Yoshihide Suga himself denied at the press conference on the 14th that the support of the five major factions in the party would affect the operation of the regime.

He said: "The related drawbacks are completely non-existent. I introduced the policy and (therefore) got a large number of votes." On the 15th, the second-tier and other Liberal Democratic Party senior leaders also emphasized the need for integration between factions after the election.

　　Some media are also worried that it is difficult for Yoshihide Suga to come up with a policy with personal characteristics.

The "Yomiuri Shimbun" commented that Yoshihide Suga "has not shown his clear'view of the country' on issues such as diplomacy, security, and constitutional amendment, nor can he see the'future image' outlined by him in terms of taxation and finance. ".

"Tokyo Shimbun" stated, "As the Chief Cabinet Secretary who supported the Abe regime for 7 years and 8 months, it is impossible to deny any'achievements' of the Abe regime. If he does that, it is tantamount to denying himself." .

　　However, Shige Harada, a former Hachioji city councillor, said in an interview with a reporter from the Global Times that the Japanese are now in a state of "seeking change" but "afraid of change".

The so-called "seeking for change" means that the Japanese are watching the changes in neighboring countries and the world, and hope that Japan will also change accordingly; the so-called "fear of change" means that the Japanese have suffered from the loss of the change of political parties. If an experienced party comes up and candidates who deny the achievements of the Abe regime come up, the country’s development will stagnate and even political and social chaos will occur. Therefore, in general, the Japanese are still happy to see those who inherit the Abe regime come. In front of the stage.

　　An article in Japan’s Sankei Shimbun earlier this month referred to Yoshihide Suga as the "Kuroko Servants" of the Abe cabinet, which meant that there was no sense of existence on the surface, but an important role that supported the completion of the whole scene.

Taking off his black clothes and putting on full costumes, how does Suga Yoshihide show his political wisdom?

The whole world is watching.