China News Service, September 14-After Shinzo Abe took power for nearly 8 years, who can succeed him to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and take the helm of the "post-Abe era"?
On the 14th, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will hold a presidential election to elect Abe's successor.
The new president of the Liberal Democratic Party will also become the new prime minister of Japan.
There are many problems that this "man at the helm" will face: the new crown epidemic is still developing, the Japanese economy is experiencing a record recession, the future of the Tokyo Olympics is uncertain...
On August 28, local time, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his resignation as prime minister.
The picture shows the news conference broadcast on the outdoor big screen.
A disease, the "Abe era" ended abruptly
"Faced with the pain of medical treatment and lack of physical strength... I am no longer able to perform my duties. I can no longer confidently respond to the requests of the people and decided to resign as Prime Minister."
On August 28, Abe, who had just become the longest consecutive prime minister in Japanese history, suddenly announced the above news. The Nikkei Index plummeted in an instant, which brought an unexpected shock to Japanese society accustomed to the "Abe era."
Originally, the term of Abe's third party president was until September 2021, when his term as prime minister would also end.
However, the ulcerative enteritis that has plagued Abe since the age of 17, made him regret to resign for the second time during his tenure as prime minister.
Abe's first term as prime minister ended because of this disease.
In 2012, Abe became the prime minister of Japan again.
During his tenure, Abe witnessed the rise of the Japanese stock market, Tokyo won the right to host the 2020 Olympic Games, and Japan successfully completed the transition from the Heisei era to the Reiwa era.
However, Abe ultimately failed to realize the revitalization of the economy through the Olympics and his much criticized vision of revising the constitution.
After Abe's resignation, the Liberal Democratic Party launched the party president election ahead of schedule, and the new president will perform his duties during Abe's remaining term of about one year.
Data map: National Diet Building of Japan.
535 votes to determine the next prime minister of Japan
Japan implements a parliamentary cabinet system. Citizens cannot directly elect the prime minister, but they can vote to elect members of the House of Representatives and the Senate to decide which political party will govern.
At present, the Liberal Democratic Party holds a majority of seats in the National Assembly. When elected as the President of the Democratic Party, it means becoming the Prime Minister of Japan.
The president of the Liberal Democratic Party is elected every three years and is elected by the party’s congressmen and local party members.
By convention, after the term of office of the president expires, the Liberal Democratic Party convenes a party meeting, and the party’s congressmen and local party members vote together to determine the new president.
In this case, the total number of votes totaled 788 votes, including 394 votes for members and 394 votes for party members.
However, due to Abe’s sudden resignation, the Liberal Democratic Party decided to skip the vote of local party branches and non-party supporters, and directly voted by 394 members of the Diet and 3 representatives from each of 47 prefectures.
In this way, the votes of members of parliament are still 394, while local votes are reduced to 141 votes, and the total number of votes for candidates is 535.
In this ballot, those with more than half of the votes in the first round were directly elected.
If no one gets more than half of the votes, it will enter the second round, when more members of Congress will win.
Because of the greater weight of the votes of members in this election, the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan has dissent within it that it has not fully listened to local opinions.
Data map: Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga.
Three candidates differ in their campaign positions
At present, the Liberal Democratic Party’s president’s "fighting war" is being waged between the party’s former secretary-general Shigeru Ishiba, political investigation chairperson Fumio Kishida, and Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga.
After several days of fierce confrontation, the three parties have clearly diverged positions on focal issues such as "Abe policy inheritance", "epidemic prevention measures", "economic policy", and "revitalizing the local economy".
Yoshihide Suga, who is considered to be the successor of the "Abe line", has pledged to maintain the current "Abenomics" policy and will advance the reform of the political and social security system. At the same time, he has proposed the same "post-war diplomatic accounts" as Abe. ", but its true policy orientation still needs time to test.
Data map: Fumio Kishida, head of the government affairs investigation committee of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party.
Kishida's current attitude is to "think about the next era based on the brilliant results left by the Prime Minister", and emphasizes that he will be committed to a growth strategy using big data, to overcome the gap between the rich and the poor, and to divide and expand social issues.
In recent years, Ishiba has been standing at a certain distance from the Abe government. The goal is to realize his own policy and clearly stated that he "will rewrite the design of this country."
Regarding the issue of constitutional amendment, he believes that the amendment should be discussed as soon as possible.
Data map: Shigeru Ishiba, former secretary general of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party.
Seven factions "stand in line", and the fight for dominance has already appeared
The Prime Minister of Japan used to be a "revolving lantern", but the number of party rotations is very few. Most of the time, the Liberal Democratic Party dominates. The choice of prime minister is often determined by factional politics. Those who can become the core of power are mostly from political families.
The Liberal Democratic Party has seven major factions. Although Fumio Kishida and Shigeru Ishiba are faction leaders, the Kishida faction and the Suizukikai (Ishiba faction) led by these two people have no decisive power.
At present, it is known that the largest faction in the party, the Hosoda faction, the Aso faction, the second-order faction, the Ishihara faction and many other factions support Suga Yoshihide. Therefore, Suga Yoshihide is the most popular.
As for the post of Chief Cabinet Secretary that was vacated after Yoshihide Suga was elected, many factions including the Hosoda faction and the Aso faction are interested in fighting for it.
On September 8th, Suga Yoshihide talked about if he was elected as the new president, he hinted or did not stick to faction recommendations on personnel arrangements, saying that he would "make the best use of his talents" based on professional knowledge.
As Yoshihide Suga himself has no faction and no political family background, the Japan Jiji News Agency commented that Yoshihide Suga’s party foundation is relatively weak. If he ignores the opinions of factions, even if he is elected, he may soon fall into trouble because of losing support.
The picture shows people walking past a sushi restaurant in Tokyo, Japan during the epidemic.
Photo by China News Agency reporter Lu Shaowei
How will the 12 months affect Japan's future direction?
On September 14, the Liberal Democratic Party voted for a new president, and the result will be at the same time.
On the 16th, the Japanese National Assembly will conduct a designated election for the prime minister.
No matter who becomes the new president, when the epidemic in Japan is still not under control, strengthening epidemic prevention and economic recovery will be the top priorities for the next 12 months.
The low government support rate, the troubled "Abenomics" stimulus policy, the increasingly severe problem of declining birthrates and aging population, and the unresolved issue of the US military base in Okinawa Prefecture will all be challenges that the new president has to face directly.
At the same time, whether the new president can uphold Abe's ability to integrate factions within the Liberal Democratic Party and avoid internal fighting will also become the focus of whether the Japanese political arena can continue to be stable.
On September 9, Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono revealed in a speech that Japan may dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election in October.
Therefore, the new president’s term as prime minister may only be about one month, and then he will have to face the uncertainty of the general election.
With the completion of the merger of the two major opposition parties in Japan, whether the Liberal Democratic Party can maintain its advantage in Congress under the current epidemic situation, and whether the Japanese regime change will once again fall into a "horror" situation, everything has become a suspense.
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