Three candidates confirm that Japan will elect a new prime minister in September
□ Ji Yong, our reporter in Japan
After Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his resignation as prime minister, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party recently quickly determined the schedule and methods for the presidential election.
At present, the election is held among the three candidates, Fumio Kishida, Shigeru Ishiba, and Yoshihide Suga. Yoshihide Suga is considered to be the most likely to win the election because he has won the majority of factions in the party.
The new prime minister will inherit the remaining one-year term of the Abe government. As a "transitional government", he will face multiple domestic and foreign issues, such as the prevention and control of the new crown epidemic, economic recovery, the Tokyo Olympics and the four northern islands.
Prime Minister elections will be held on the 16th
On September 1, the General Affairs Council of the Liberal Democratic Party decided on the schedule and method of party president election for Abe’s successor. An announcement will be made on the 8th, and the party’s congressmen and local branch representatives will vote on the 14th to elect a new president.
Because the Liberal Democratic Party is the ruling party, the election of the president of the Liberal Democratic Party is actually the election of the prime minister.
After the new president is elected on the 14th, an interim parliament will be held on the 16th to hold the election of the prime minister.
According to the relevant regulations of the Liberal Democratic Party, the election of the president is divided into two methods: general election and emergency election.
General elections are conducted by voting by members of the party's Congress and local party members, and the voting power is equally divided.
If this method is adopted, the total number of votes in this election is 788. Among them, 394 members vote and 394 party members votes. Those who get more than half of the votes are elected; the emergency election will be conducted by members of Congress and 3 representatives from 47 local branches across the country. In this way, the votes of members are more important than those of party members.
In this way, the votes of members and local votes were 394 and 141 respectively, for a total of 535 votes.
On August 28, Abe suddenly announced his resignation. In order to avoid the stagnation of the government, the election of a new president as soon as possible has become the top priority of the Liberal Democratic Party.
The leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party believes that the sudden resignation of the prime minister is a situation that requires an urgent response, and therefore decided to adopt an emergency election method.
Many times in the history of the Liberal Democratic Party, after the president resigned due to health or other reasons, he adopted the method of urgently electing the president.
According to analysis by Japanese media, because of the greater weight of votes of members in emergency elections, factions in the Liberal Democratic Party, including Abe’s Hosoda faction, will play a leading role in the election.
Yoshihide Suga has the best chance of winning
After the Liberal Democratic Party determined the election schedule and methods, the head of the political investigation committee Fumio Kishida, the former secretary general Ishiba Shige, and the chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Suga announced their candidacy.
Fumio Kishida served as the Minister of Foreign Affairs after the establishment of the second Abe government, and the current chairman of the political survey is also an important post known as the "three party campaigns."
The Kishida faction led by Fumio Kishida has 47 members of Congress and is considered a liberal faction within the Liberal Democratic Party.
Kishida Fumio had been considered by Japanese public opinion to be a strong successor to Abe, and his good personal relationship with Abe was also seen as a favorable condition for competing with the prime minister.
Shi Po-mao served as secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, minister of defense, minister of local regeneration and other positions.
After withdrawing from the Abe government, he has always existed as a representative of anti-Abe forces within the Liberal Democratic Party, and he has been sharply criticized for scandals of the Abe government such as the "Sakura Viewing Society".
Shi Pomao is proficient in policy and his personal style of being close to local voters has made him very popular among grassroots members of the Liberal Democratic Party.
In the two presidential elections in 2012 and 2018, Ishibashi received extremely high party votes, posing a threat to the winning Abe.
Yoshihide Suga has served as the Chief Cabinet Secretary since the establishment of the second Abe government. Together with the Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso, he constitutes an important pillar of the Abe government and made great contributions to the Abe government becoming the longest governing regime in history.
Yoshihide Suga was not only the hero who persuaded Abe to challenge the Prime Minister's throne for the second time in 2012, but also served as the Chief Cabinet Secretary for a long time in the government center. He has a huge influence on the Abe government. Some voices in Japan call him the "shadow prime minister."
Public opinion generally believes that if Yoshihide Suga is elected, the current policy line will be better maintained and a smooth transition of the regime will be achieved.
At present, the 7 factions in the Liberal Democratic Party have supported Suga Yoshihide, the Hosoda faction, Aso faction, Takeshita faction, and Ishihara faction, giving it an advantage in the 394 votes of congressmen.
Japanese media believe that Yoshihide Suga has basically determined the victory.
The new government has a long way to go
According to the LDP Party Constitution, the newly elected president after the resignation of the president can only inherit the remaining term of the original president.
Because the term of Abe's Liberal Democratic Party president was originally scheduled to expire at the end of September next year, this means that the term of the new president is only more than one year.
Although the term of office is short, judging from the internal and external situation facing Japan, the issues facing the new government can be described as numerous challenges.
At present, the new crown epidemic in Japan is still spreading. Although the government's new crown countermeasures subcommittee believes that the second wave of infection has passed its peak at the end of July and has begun to show a slow downward trend, some experts in Japan have continued to spread the new crown. It is worried that after entering the November flu season, Japan will face a situation where the new crown and flu will be epidemic at the same time.
How to prevent and control the epidemic will become the primary issue after the establishment of the new government.
Economically, Japan’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter fell by 7.8% compared to the first quarter, and the converted annual rate fell by 27.8%, exceeding the 17.8% annual rate after the Lehman crisis in the first quarter of 2009, the worst in history. Record.
Under the worst economic data, Japan's domestic unemployment rate has risen, and business closures have increased, and the economy is facing a dilemma between epidemic prevention and control and recovery.
In addition, as an important issue for the new government, the future of the Tokyo Olympics, which will be postponed until next year, is still uncertain.
At present, many voices in Japan are skeptical of hosting the Olympic Games as scheduled. Although the Japanese government is discussing plans to reduce the scale, if it is really suspended, the impact on the new government will be very great.
In addition to the series of internal political problems, as a legacy of the Abe administration, the four northern islands and the improvement of relations with South Korea are also diplomatic problems that the new government needs to face.