Al-Kazemi and the impossible options ... How will he face the axes struggle in Iraq?

Alaa Kouli - Dhi Qar

Since his visit to Washington at the head of a government delegation on August 20, Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi has received a torrent of political attacks and fiery media statements led by political parties and leaders of armed factions.

These attacks - as seen by observers in the political affairs - may complicate the situation, and even reveal the depth of the disagreement and crises caused by the axes conflict in Iraq, which makes Al-Kazemi in a difficult test to determine his destination and try to proceed properly to implement his government program.

The axis that tends to the Iranian side seeks to drag Al-Kazemi to its region by rejecting the presence of American forces in Iraq, and between another axis that tends to the American side, and believes that the transformation of Al-Kazemi's positions will open the way for the government to proceed peacefully, while the scene of protests rejecting all remains blurred and without an integrated vision.

Demonstrators in Nasiriyah over a tall building during the protests months ago (Al-Jazeera)

Escalation is coming

Academic and political researcher Dr. Anwar Al-Haidari believes that it is not necessary for the prime minister to line up for any of the axes, but rather it is possible to side with Iraq, and to benefit from the advantages of the axes that can serve the country.

But it seems that Al-Kazemi - as Al-Haidari tells Al-Jazeera Net - has fully joined the American axis with its timing, hoping to benefit from the surprise element that paralyzed the reaction of the political forces in the center and the south last year, but it seems that these forces have rearranged their cards in a way that pushes them to Withstand.

Escalation is coming from both sides, as Al-Haidari sees it, and it seems that both sides also know the other’s cards, so resorting to escalation alone will not settle the matter as much as it will lead to further disruption of the societal fabric in the southern governorates, and the destruction of the infrastructure in them.

Al-Haidari added that the two parties may agree to compromise solutions during which the escalation ceiling will be reduced in exchange for resorting to other means to achieve the goals. As for the Prime Minister, he is neither the director of events nor the mastermind of them, but rather the Iraqi supervisor of them, and with his political position covered by constitutional legitimacy he may be able to transfer The other party's views are on the mastermind, but the final decision is not up to him.

Angry meetings in the

middle of last month, and prior to Al-Kazemi's travel to Washington, there was a heated meeting that Hadi al-Amiri, the leader of the Badr Organization, called at his home, attended by the prime minister along with the leaders of the armed factions, and there were sharp discussions about the withdrawal of American forces, the file of demonstrations, and forcing Al-Kazemi to move away from the American axis.

But this meeting did not produce anything, and everyone came out disagreeing about whether Al-Kazemi was on their side or on the American side, or standing by the protests that disturb the political blocs and parties, especially after a wave of burning their headquarters in Nasiriyah and other cities last month, and the fear of a return to violence from new.

Al-Saadawi considered that Al-Kazemi is running within the program that was set for him from the political blocs and alliances that brought him (Al-Jazeera Net)

Returning the prestige of the state

from another angle, the deputy of the state of law, Abdul Hadi al-Saadawi, confirms that the prime minister is running within the program that was set for him by the blocs that brought him and the political alliances, namely Al-Fateh, Sairoun, wisdom and victory.

Al-Saadawi says that these are responsible for his internal and external policy, and they must correct its course, control security in the central and southern regions, restore the prestige of the state because the situation today is outside the control of security, remove some advisers who are part of the non-peaceful demonstrations, and protect peaceful demonstrators from insecurity.

Al-Saadawi added that the coalition of states of law is not involved in the government, and it is closely monitoring the situation, and if there is an external focus and failure to control internal security, the coalition will have a word of separation and will lift the legal and legal cover on the government.

Al-Kazemi (right) during his meeting with Trump last month (Anatolia)

Reactions

After Al-Kazemi's meeting with officials in Washington, the armed factions came out with a fiery statement, threatening to escalate and target US interests inside Iraq, after the prime minister failed her - as she put it - in delivering the voice of the Iraqi people to "end the American occupation of Iraq."

The factions confirmed during their statement - which was issued on 21 August - that they were surprised by Al-Kazemi's position regarding not requesting the withdrawal of American forces, and that they found in his position a circumvention of Iraq's sovereignty, denouncing normalization and targeting Israeli delegations as well.

In turn, the blogger and activist in the Nassiriya demonstrations (the center of Dhi Qar province in southern Iraq), Sadiq Al-Zaidi, confirms that the coming days will witness an escalation in the level of targeting the US embassy and its interests in Iraq, and this is happening for several weeks in several regions in Iraq, especially with regard to logistical support adopted by companies Iraqi American sites inside Iraq, where they were targeted by IEDs.

Al-Zaidi added to Al-Jazeera Net that the Al-Kazemi administration’s incompatibility with the factions will complicate matters further, and will increase the frequency of missile attacks, in addition to the media attacks and electronic campaigns that will be launched to confuse the government’s work and try to bring it down, but on the other hand it is expected that there will be an American position in support of Al-Kazemi’s actions in As soon as he announced the implementation of the law enforcement plan to restore the prestige of the state.

Regarding the expected options of Al-Kazemi, Al-Zaidi explains that the first is to stand by Iraq, not to lean towards any axis, and to emphasize the implementation of the demands of the protesters who raised national slogans and general demands serving Iraq, pointing out that such a task will not be easy, but it must be There will be sacrifices for the country.

In light of the ongoing political developments, there is a fear of a return of violence in conjunction with the one-year anniversary of the popular protests that began on October 1, 2019, and preparations to commemorate them, which makes al-Kazimi difficult choices.