A man walks past an employment agency in Glendale, Calif., Closed due to the coronavirus, on May 4.
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VALERIE MACON / AFP
Unemployment is slowly falling in the United States after exploding in the spring as a result of the pandemic, but the world's largest economy is struggling to lift its head and many of the newly unemployed may not find jobs for a long time.
The unemployment rate for August, released Friday, should be down slightly from 10.2% in July: analysts are forecasting 9.8%.
The number of jobs created continues to decline
The number of jobs created should continue to slow, to around 1.4 million, after 1.8 million in July and a record 4.8 million in June.
Not enough to make up for the 20.5 million jobs destroyed in April alone.
"Economists don't really know what's going on in the job market, in large part because the data is so disproportionate that it's difficult to apply a past model to the numbers," says economist Joel Naroff in a report. note.
"The labor market is improving, but the reopening (activity) slowed in August in most regions, and even new closures in some, could be reflected" in the August figures, he said. .
Several hundred thousand jobless claims every week
The unemployment rate is declining slowly, after its jump in April, when it peaked at 14.2% because of containment measures in the face of the pandemic.
In two months, it had gone from a low in 50 years to a high in 80 years.
Economic activity then restarted with fanfare at the end of spring, before suffering an upsurge in Covid-19 cases in the country.
She is now struggling to keep up.
And every week, several hundred thousand Americans continue to register as unemployed.
Consumers have lost confidence because they don't know if they will be able to keep their jobs.
Years before you can work again?
Many economists, like those at the US Central Bank (Fed), worry that some unemployed people will take years to get back to work. "Long-term unemployment is a huge problem," he said. AFP William Spriggs, chief economist of the AFL-CIO, the largest American federation of unions.
Beyond six months of unemployment, he emphasizes, it becomes difficult to find a job.
It is also the maximum duration of payment of unemployment benefits, the amounts and duration of which vary from state to state.
While back to school is virtually back to school for many American schoolchildren, many women could suffer as a result, forced out of the workforce to care for children, whose classroom is now home.
"The question will be to know what is the rate of activity of the women, because that will determine if the unemployment decreases much" or not, notes William Spriggs.
Aid plans that are slow to come
The economic recovery is also threatened by the failure of negotiations between the White House and the Democrats in Congress on a new plan to help households, businesses, schools and local communities.
“I am extremely worried.
Extremely concerned.
It is a catastrophe, an absolute catastrophe.
The third quarter should have registered a rebound.
This is not the case, it will be a disaster, ”laments William Spriggs.
Millions of Americans without jobs, or whose incomes have fallen, also lost an additional $ 600 a week in aid.
Donald Trump signed a decree in early August to temporarily replace it, to the tune of $ 400 per week.
States also had to put their hands in their pockets.
Some refused help.
However, it had largely enabled the American economy to restart, by stimulating its main engine: consumption.
“The $ 600 supported the consumption of the poorest 75%,” adds William Spriggs, warning that “without this money, we will see a collapse (of the economy)”.
“A lot of companies that have taken out loans are in trouble and, with this drop in demand, yes, they will lay off,” he said.
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