All eyes are on Angela Merkel.
The German Chancellor is under increasing pressure to take action against Moscow in the case of the poisoning of Russian opponent Alexeï Navalny.
"It's time to hurt the man in the Kremlin," the weekly Der Spiegel bluntly said in an editorial published Thursday (September 4th).
The head of government has already made a noticeable departure from her traditional style.
Known across the Rhine for her political procrastination, she showed unusual firmness in her condemnation of the attempted assassination of Alexeï Navalny.
"Only the Russian government can and must answer certain very serious questions which arise in this affair", she affirmed Wednesday, before adding: "According to these answers we will decide together [with the European Union , Editor's note] of an appropriate reaction ".
Diplomatic poison for Berlin
In doing so, Angela Merkel condemned herself to go further, judge political observers and experts on German-Russian relations.
Germany had already "agreed to play the leading role in this affair by taking the decision to bring in Alexeï Navalny and treat him at the Charité hospital in Berlin", notes political commentator Michael Strempel on the public channel ARD .
But by officially calling the poisoning a "crime" that requires responses from Moscow, the Chancellor has upped the ante.
"In a democracy, launching an accusation of an attack against a person is not a trivial matter", underlines the Süddeutsche Zeitung.
The Novichok administered to Alexeï Navalny thus turns out to be a diplomatic poison for Berlin.
The case pushes the government to abandon its traditional prudence in its relations with Moscow.
"The government has never been very enterprising in the past. It reacted little after the murder [of a Chechen activist in 2019, Editor's note] near the Berlin zoo, after the cyberattack on Parliament in 2015 or afterwards the various disinformation campaigns targeting German public figures, "recalls Stefan Meister, specialist in German-Russian relations at the German Council on Foreign Relations, interviewed by the N-TV news channel.
>> To read also: Novichok, a poison of the Cold War even more deadly than sarin
This restraint can be explained, in part, by the conviction of the German authorities that a policy of confrontation with Moscow is counterproductive, notes Der Spiegel.
They believe that "Russia is essential for finding solutions to a large number of conflicts and that too much firmness towards it will only push the country a little more into the arms of China and its vision of the world" , says the magazine.
How do you "hurt the man in the Kremlin"
?
This time around, the time for geopolitical subtleties is over.
And Angela Merkel's call for a coordinated response with other European countries can only work if Berlin sets an example.
Determined leadership is needed because "the precedent of the Novichok poisoning of the former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal in London [in 2018] demonstrated Europe's lack of unity in the face of Russia ", recalls the Süddeutsche Zeitung.
In the end, the EU was content to send a few diplomats back to Russia, which should not have filled Vladimir Putin with fear.
But the question is how to "hurt the man in the Kremlin", to use Spiegel's expression.
For Moscow, "everything is a question of cost / benefit ratio," said Sarah Pagung to the Süddeutsche Zeitung, Russian policy specialist at the German Council for Foreign Relations.
We need a reaction that is equal to the advantage that Vladimir Poutine would have obtained from the disappearance of an opponent of the caliber of Alexei Navalny.
In this regard, the traditional arsenal of sanctions consisting in freezing the accounts of oligarchs close to power and restricting their movements would not be sufficient, believes this expert.
She considers it more useful to hit Moscow on the wallet by banning German banks from processing certain Russian financial transactions.
"We can also do more in the fight against corruption which benefits the Russian regime, because we know that the money is laundered in German banks and that it is used to buy real estate in Germany", notes Stefan. Meister.
The atomic option
: Nord Stream
2
Angela Merkel, however, has a much more formidable weapon: to stop the construction of Nord Stream 2, the gigantic and very controversial Russian-German gas pipeline.
This 10 billion euro project is almost completed and if Berlin decided to put an end to it, it would be a very hard blow for the Russian giant Gazprom, which largely financed it.
It would also be a major setback for Moscow, which hopes to consolidate its position as Europe's leading gas supplier (41% of gas imported into Europe already comes from Russia) thanks to Nord Stream 2.
>> To read also: Nord Stream 2, the gas pipeline which makes Germany "prisoner of Russia"
"If we allow this work to continue after the poisoning of Alexey Navalny, it would be the ultimate sign for Vladimir Putin that we are unable to show firmness", warned Norbert Röttgen, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Bundestag and historical opponent within the CDU (Angela Merkel's conservative party) to the Nord Stream 2 project.
But Angela Merkel was very attached to this project.
Shortly after the arrival of Alexei Navalny in Germany, on August 22, she let it be known that she did not intend to call this site into question because of this affair.
Has the political pressure she is under been able to make her change her mind?
"I don't think she's ready to give up Nord Stream 2 yet," Judge Sarah Pagung.
The main reason is the economic interests of the German companies participating in it.
Gazprom is not the only one to have invested in the gas pipeline and shutting it down would cost the German partners in the project hundreds of millions of euros.
The Chancellor also has a lot to lose politically if she releases Nord Stream 2. Since the start, in 2015, she has defended this gas pipeline tooth and nail, and almost alone against almost all of the European partners of Germany and the United States. .
All consider this project economically useless and playing into the geopolitical game of Moscow.
Washington even took sanctions against companies participating in this project in December 2019, which had deeply irritated Berlin.
After having stood up to everyone for so long, she may find it difficult to abandon it, judges Focus magazine.
But with this possibility in hand of dealing a real blow to Moscow, any other decision by Angela Merkel would be considered unsatisfactory.
The Chancellor's dilemma is therefore between two evils: to take sanctions which may not impress anyone, or to sacrifice a project in which she has invested so much politically.
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