British experts answer .. This is the scenario of the expected escalation between Turkey and Greece

With the continuing escalation between Turkey and Greece and behind it the European Union, and the hinting of the military option;

To settle the dispute over the maritime borders, the fear of a military confrontation is growing, which includes regional and international powers with huge military capabilities, which means entering the Middle East into a devastating war in terms of effects and consequences.

As usual, London maintains its calm in dealing with international crises, in the absence of any decisive official position lining up with one of the sides, and the British political circles are also not dealing with convulsions with this crisis as is happening in Paris and even Berlin.

London does not want war, and

perhaps the United Kingdom is reluctant to declare the bias of any party, due to a large extent to the relationship between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a relationship in which he did not record crises or war statements, but rather was always moving in a positive direction, and expressed This is Erdogan's messages to Johnson, first when he congratulated him on his electoral victory a year ago, then the message of reassurance to Johnson after entering the intensive care unit due to his infection with the Coronavirus.

The British lingering position in this crisis can be put in the context of the British government's desire to put a distance with the European Union policies, in preparation for the final exit at the end of next year, and finally there is the trade agreement that has reached its final stages between Ankara and London, which the latter relies on to diversify its trading partners after Brexit. .

As for the last factors, it is the close cooperation between the two countries in the field of defense industries. At the end of last year, Turkey and Britain agreed to accelerate military cooperation in the production of war fighters.

All these factors make Britain put a distance from the European Union's positions in this crisis, and at the same time oppose the outbreak of any military confrontation in the Middle East region.

War But

Tahir Abbas, who previously held the position of senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, which is the oldest research center in military issues in the world, reads that what is happening now is a diplomatic war to redraw areas of influence again, "and there are forces that do not want Turkey to It is expanding more because it believes that this will affect its vital interests. "

The professor of defense policies and terrorism ruled out, during his conversation with Al-Jazeera Net, the outbreak of a direct war between the two parties, justifying his position, "with the presence of a large number of interveners in this crisis, and all of them have great influence and huge military capabilities, and any war means catastrophic losses and chaos not only in the Middle East; But this time the spark will reach the European Union. "

The security and military expert expressed his confidence that major countries would seek to prevent the region from descending into a new war. “There is the United States that will oppose any war, and there is also Russia that has good relations with Turkey, and there is the United Kingdom that is preparing for the post-Brexit phase, and does not want the outbreak of A war that is destroying the global economy more than it is now. "

The professor at Leiden University pointed out that the European Union is not at the heart of a single man in his position on Turkey, "There is a country resentful of the role played by French President Macron, who is trying to influence the Union's policies to appear as the new leader of the Union; but this angered other European countries. It has an interest in the hostility of Turkey. "

With regard to the relationship between the European Union and Turkey, Tahir Abbas believes that it is a relationship of interests, "and there is an implicit agreement on the refugee file, and none of them can violate it, because it serves both sides, and therefore the European Union will not seek to deny this agreement, because it is not in its interest even if it opposes Turkish policies." ".

The spokesman expects that matters will return to the diplomatic square, "European leaders know that Turkey is a regional power, and European peoples cannot be dragged into a destructive war."

Skirmishes, not a battle

, Professor Gilbert Al-Ashqar, Professor of International Relations at the Institute of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London, expects that the escalation between Turkey and Greece will not develop into a comprehensive war;

"Rather, what will happen in the worst case is limited skirmishes between the two parties, and skirmishes will be controlled, and will not go out of control."

In his statement to Al-Jazeera Net, Professor Al-Ashqar explains his position that Turkey and Greece are among the strategic and military allies of the United States, "and Washington will not allow a military confrontation to erupt between two of its allies."

The professor of international relations explains that what fuels this conflict has borrowed regional and international competition for gas, which is the direct cause of the recent escalation.

But he goes for other reasons, including "Erdogan's reliance on foreign policy in a major way in building his political project, which is called neo-Ottoman in Turkish political literature and even Western," explaining that the Turkish president "believes that his country is now able to adopt a foreign policy that matches that followed. By the major powers. "

As for the French position that leads the escalation efforts against Turkey, Professor Al-Ashqar believes that "the foreign policy of Paris is not without opportunism and political rivalry against Turkey, especially since France had its eye on Libya since the era of former President Nicolas Sarkozy; but it received a strong blow in Libya after the French intervention." And it found itself the biggest loser because of its bet on Haftar. "

The professor of international relations places the solution to this crisis exclusively in Washington’s hands. “This file will not be resolved until after the results of the US elections, and it will decide the matter in the Middle East in general. But it is certain that whatever the nature of the next president will not choose war.”