Ahead of Macron’s visit to Lebanon, how was it quickly agreed on Mustafa Adib to form the government?

Events in Lebanon accelerate before the arrival of French President Emmanuel Macron to Beirut, after the President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, commissioned the Lebanese diplomat, Mustafa Adib, to form a new government, with the support of 90 deputies out of 128, to succeed the government of President Hassan Diab, which resigned after the Beirut Port bombing on August 4 / This August.

As a result of French pressure on political leaders in Beirut, the sudden agreement on a figure outside the lot of political candidates for this position raised many questions, especially about the background of Adeeb's nomination to form the "mission government", after his recommendation by the club of the four former heads of government, and the immediate adoption of him by the strong There are many, in the forefront of which is Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and the Free Patriotic Movement.

This nomination reinforced the fears of some forces in Lebanon that the government of Mustafa Adeeb would be a revised version of Hassan Diab's government, or that the experience of not nominating a "prominent Sunni figure in the political arena" would be entrenched, in parallel with the French proposition of the need to go to a "new decade" in Lebanon.

The most prominent opposition stances came from the former Interior Minister Nihad Al-Machnouk, who apologized for participating "in the divine victory celebrations that take place in the Republican Palace and are called binding consultations," as he put it, and blamed him, asking: "Is this the compromise that former prime ministers call for with New civilian nobles?

Michel Aoun (center) appointed Adeeb (right) to form a government after 90 deputies out of 128 support him (Anatolia)

How political forces justify the nomination of Mustafa Adib?

Mustafa Alloush, a member of the political bureau in the Future Movement - headed by Saad Hariri - believes that what prompted the former heads of government to recommend Mustafa Adeeb was the desirability of the street demanding the nomination of an independent personality. Therefore, “The head of the Future Movement, Saad Hariri, was excluded from assuming the task, so it came Adib is adopted based on French advice, so as not to open the appetite of other parties to join the government.

When I asked Alloush if the Sunni community in Lebanon was paying the price for not being truly represented in the premiership, Al-Jazeera Net replies that "Sunnis pay the price not in Lebanon alone, but in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, as a result of the absence of international coverage and the lack of regional and local leadership to take care of their presence and improve their conditions." In Lebanon and the Arab world, they will be the weakest link in every settlement. "

On the other hand, writer and political analyst Tawfiq Shoman - who is close to Hezbollah - believes that the nomination of Mustafa Adeeb is a French production, and that both the president of the republic and the Shiite duo (Hezbollah and Amal Movement) were waiting for Hariri to adopt the name of his candidate, in response to Macron's insistence on consensus before Arriving in Beirut.

However, will Adib's government be a prelude to a "new contract" that undermines the Taif Agreement that was established in 1989?

From the viewpoint of writer and political analyst Johnny Mounir, the role of Adib's government is "exaggerated", as he believes that "its mission is less than a year old, limited to implementing the reforms required of Lebanon, preparing for parliamentary elections and dealing with the repercussions of the Beirut port explosion."

He told Al-Jazeera Net: "The new contract is not related to the Lebanese interior only, but rather is related to external settlements and conflicts in Iraq and Syria, and it will be with the participation of all the main forces in the country, then go either to improve the Taif Agreement, or to discuss the French proposal that calls for respect for pluralism, which means decentralization." (Federalism), while the Shiites are calling for the triple, and this is a debate (that needs) many years before it is crystallized. "

At a time when the Future Movement was embracing the mission of defending the Taif Agreement, Mustafa Alloush believes that after "this agreement became subject to suspicion, researching the constitution became a necessity."

However, any constitutive agreement - according to Alloush - must be in the form of a "new national contract" based on redrawing geographical borders, "but if Hezbollah's weapons do not come out of the internal equation, then" no national contract that guarantees the preservation of the Lebanese geography and demography can not be completed. ".

Tawfiq Shoman expresses a different point of view, and believes that the openness of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah to the French initiative came in harmony with the position of President Michel Aoun, who called for the building of a civil state in Lebanon, and he explains it openness to move towards a new Lebanese decade.

Shoman said, "The French-Iranian communication threw its real weight on the internal Lebanese positions, and the position of Hezbollah was crystallized, but the matter needs regional cover that will not be available before an Iranian-Gulf settlement."

Shoman reveals to Al-Jazeera Net his information about the French attempt to extend the communication bridge between Riyadh and Tehran regarding the Lebanese issue, establishing an indirect consensus that “facilitates the process of pushing the Lebanese towards a national dialogue, by hosting France for effective Lebanese forces for dialogue, and then amending some constitutional articles based on development The Taif Agreement, and the French may go to the last point. "

Schuman believes that there is French-American coordination toward Lebanon, and "what matters most to the Americans at present is the issue of demarcating the borders in the south with Israel."

Hassan Diab resigned after the Beirut port explosion on August 4 (Al-Jazeera)

So, will the next Adib government succeed in these missions?

Even if there is an internal facilitation of the government as a result of international pressure, Johnny Munir believes that it may be on the verge of a direct collision with the street if it fails to implement the reform provisions, especially the electricity issue.

As for Tawfiq Shoman, he expects that the government will face major obstacles on the way to reform, especially in the event of the escalation of American pressure before moving to the national dialogue stage to produce a new political contract.

On the other hand, Mustafa Alloush goes further, considering that the bet on the government's performance is evident through its ministerial statement and the names of its ministers.

He recalled, "Remaining the most prominent station that many ignore: the file of renewal of the UNIFIL forces at the Lebanese border with Israel, and it is linked to the American position in Lebanon, because what America is demanding on behalf of Israel is to expand the scope of UNIFIL's work to surround the armed presence of Hezbollah in the border areas according to a decision." 1701 ".

This station, if Lebanon agreed to it, would mean that "Hezbollah and Iran are ready for a settlement with America, which may be translated by the next government in its performance."