Pyongyang does not trust China to protect it from any possible attack
North Korea will not disarm its nuclear weapons because it is a guarantee of its survival
One of North Korean factories as the country adopts the self-reliance policy of the founding fathers. A.F.B.
The North Korean president watches a military exercise in an undisclosed location. a. B
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Analysts believe that North Korea will not agree to denuclearize, because it represents its influence, ensures its survival, and deals with the international community. It even rejected China's offer to disarm and annex it to its nuclear umbrella, because it does not trust Beijing.
When North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for the first time in March 2018, the expected official topics of discussion were: peace, nuclear disarmament, industry, economic development, and deepening relations between North Korea and China. A surprise for two countries allied for decades.
However, this relationship is much more tense than what appears to be indicating. North Korea is happy with Beijing at its side, but it will never be willing to put its security fate in the hands of China, and therefore it will not risk disarming its nuclear weapons, as China asks it to. In the past, the United States managed to pressure its allies, such as South Korea and Taiwan, to discourage them from seeking nuclear programs, thanks to its offer to protect them, whether through vague guarantees for Taiwan, or formally including them under its nuclear umbrella that it offered to Japan and others, and this It makes the idea of a Chinese nuclear umbrella over North Korea an attractive and legitimate method for denuclearization, but Pyongyang is not expected to ever agree to it.
Before becoming a nuclear threat, attempts to rapprochement with the United States were often unanswered, because it was difficult for it to deal with a global superpower with interests on the Korean Peninsula, and nuclear weapons later allowed it to deal with the overwhelming conventional military forces of the United States. And South Korea, as it helped it deal on an equal footing with the United States, South Korea, China, Japan and Russia.
Ideological roots
China and North Korea share ideological roots. Beijing laid the foundation for this permanent alliance between the two countries when North Korea was in need of assistance during the Korean War. However, there are fundamental differences between the alliance of North Korea and China, and the US alliances with South Korea and Japan, which makes It is extremely unlikely that a Chinese nuclear umbrella would be established to cover North Korea, and any such offer from China would directly conflict with three concerns that are rooted in the depth of its policy-making: adherence to the ideology of self-reliance, or what is called in the Korean language "jushi", and economic twinning. With China, maintain nuclear influence.
North Korea’s founder, Kim Il-sung, adopted the principle of "self-reliance" as a guiding principle in North Korean life and for policymaking to confront the volatile geopolitical environment in the country in the early 1960s. His son, Kim Jong Il, the father of the current president, Kim Jong Un, further activated the ideology of self-reliance, ensuring its continuation as a central concept. This ideology asserts that North Korea adheres to independence and self-reliance in domestic and foreign policy-making, economic development, and military defense.
self-reliance
North Korean leaders saw independence and self-reliance as increasingly important, as their asymmetric relations with allies remained inconsistent. When the country adopted this ideology, North Korea was at odds with the Soviet Union and China. At the same time, it relied heavily on Chinese and Soviet aid to achieve economic stability and national security, and this was alarming to policymakers, who kept asking: How could North Korea preserve its sovereignty while relying economically and militarily on those who have conflicting interests with it?
Historically, Chinese empires frequently cared for Korean lands. The interests of modern China also collided directly with those of North Korea on various occasions, which had dire consequences for the bilateral relations. China assumed command of operations during the Korean War, which increased tensions between military officers in North Korea and China, and China threatened military action against North Korea during the Cultural Revolution, and China re-interpreted the mutual defense treaty with North Korea, to exempt itself from the responsibility to defend its neighbor if it attacked Korea North first, and China supported the imposition of sanctions on North Korea.
China is not exempt from North Korea’s concerns about the ideology of self-reliance, but rather one of the main reasons for pursuing this policy, because Pyongyang fears fickle allies like China more than clear opponents.
obstacle
Even North Korea's strong economic relationship with China is, paradoxically, another obstacle to a Chinese nuclear umbrella. North Korea wants to rearrange its economic development priorities through its economic policy, which it calls "parallel growth," which maintains the balance of military and economic development. Kim Jong Un's visit to the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone in January 2019 feeds into this idea. Recently, North Korea has already shown a tendency towards economic development zones, which are a major component of China's Belt and Road Initiative, and this interest comes after Chinese government officials secretly complained about North Korea's unwillingness to follow their system of market reforms, so Beijing welcomed this. Steps.
Moreover, economic sources estimate that China in 2018 received 62.5% of North Korea's exports and 95.7% of its imports, making China the country's first trading partner. China continues to support the North Korean economy despite the sanctions, and has called for a reduction in economic sanctions amid nuclear disarmament talks.
Security independence
However, the strong economic relationship does not mean North Korea's willingness or flexibility to accept a stronger security relationship with China. On the contrary, Pyeongyang's insistence on its economic dependence makes it more keen to preserve its security independence. North Korea's economic dependence on China comes as a necessity due to sanctions that prevent the development of wide-ranging economic ties with other countries. The absence of sources to diversify trade in North Korea increases its economic vulnerability and its exposure to Chinese interference in its internal affairs. The impact of the "Covid-19" pandemic on the North Korean economy is a strong example of this weakness. North Korea closed its borders with China in January due to the outbreak of the epidemic, which led to a decrease in the volume of trade with China by 91.3% in March on an annual basis. This is due to the instability of prices and the lack of basic foodstuffs.
A sovereign state
North Korea wants to become an independent, sovereign state, enjoying complete independence in achieving its national security interests, in the manner it deems appropriate. Nuclear weapons play an important role in North Korea’s dealings with the international community, and in satisfying its desire for international recognition.
Despite sanctions and isolation, North Korea has surprisingly succeeded in leveraging its nuclear weapons to achieve domestic and international political goals. In the 1990s, North Korea benefited from its nuclear weapons program to obtain food, energy, and economic aid from the United States, South Korea, Japan and China. This came at a time when North Korea was in a state of severe economic decline and facing severe famine.
Domestically, nuclear weapons are a force to legitimize and stabilize the Kim Jong Un regime. The Korean People's Army is the military arm of the North Korean government, and one of its most powerful institutions. North Korea’s policy of "army first" is intended to reinforce national resolve and ensure North Korea's ability to confront its military opponents. The successful development of nuclear weapons, under the leadership of Kim Jong-un, is the culmination of the "army first" policy of his father. Kim Jong Il, this legitimizes the Kim regime by showing local political players, such as the Korean People's Army, which has been marked by long-standing patriotic sacrifices. North Korea not only wants to be safe, but also secure on its own terms, and it will never accept trading its influence in nuclear weapons for the uncertain haven of a Chinese offer.
China and North Korea share ideological roots. Beijing laid the foundation for this permanent alliance between the two countries, when North Korea was in need of assistance during the Korean War, but there are fundamental differences between the alliance of North Korea and China, and the US alliances with South Korea and Japan. Makes it extremely unlikely that a Chinese nuclear umbrella would be built to cover North Korea.
China is not exempt from North Korea’s concerns about the ideology of self-reliance, but rather one of the main reasons for pursuing this policy, because Pyongyang fears fickle allies like China more than clear opponents.