On August 28, after serving as Prime Minister of Japan for 2803 days, Shinzo Abe announced his resignation. What's intriguing is that just 4 days ago, he just became the prime minister of Japan with the longest consecutive rule.
Born in a political family, Abe, who had "revived" after stepping down, broke the vicious circle of changing Japan's prime minister with these resumes. Since taking office for the second time, he has been in the prime minister's position for nearly 8 years. But it's almost "finished", and there is still a year before the end of his term. Why did Abe choose to leave at this time?
At about 5 pm on the 28th local time, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe officially announced his resignation as prime minister at a press conference. Image source: Screenshot of NHK video
Health turns red?
Two times as prime minister, he left early due to illness
The two terms of office did not expire, and both ended in early resignation. Abe announced that the cause was "ulcerative colitis." So, how "serious" is this disease?
According to reports, ulcerative colitis is an intractable disease that causes severe abdominal pain and diarrhea due to inflammation of the large intestine mucosa. The cause of this disease has not yet been determined.
What is known to the outside world is that Abe has been suffering from ulcerative colitis since he was over 10 years old. In September 2007, he had been prime minister for less than a year and announced his resignation on this ground.
According to research data, about 5% of patients with the disease in Japan have to undergo surgery to remove the large intestine due to difficulty in improving their symptoms. After the operation, although abdominal pain and other symptoms can be improved, the loss of large intestine function will affect the daily life of the patient.
Data map: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Although Abe has been taking new anti-inflammatory drugs and his condition has remained stable since he re-elected the prime minister of Japan in 2012, the physical examination results in June 2020 showed that his condition was "abnormal."
Recently, Abe's frequent hospital visits have been the focus of close attention from all walks of life in Japan. On August 17, Abe went to Keio University Hospital for "health check" and stayed for more than 7 hours. On the morning of the 24th, Abe and his party went to the hospital again and stayed for more than 3 hours. In response, Abe said that he would follow the doctor's advice to listen to the inspection report.
However, government insiders revealed that Abe may be "overworked" in responding to the new crown epidemic, causing a "red light" in his physical condition. Japanese media said that from late January to late June 2020, Abe had worked continuously for nearly 150 days.
Born in a political family
Promoting "Abenomics" in office
Born in a political family, Shinzo Abe is the grandson of the former Prime Minister of Japan and the Liberal Democratic Party's top Nobuyuki Kishi, and the second son of the former Japanese Foreign Minister Shintaro Abe; his uncle Eisaku Sato was also prime minister.
In 2006, 52-year-old Abe became Japan's youngest prime minister. However, after only one year in office, he resigned as prime minister for health reasons. In fact, what Abe faced at the time was the political reality of constant cabinet disputes, the defeat of the Senate election, and the improper implementation of government orders.
In 2012, Abe once again participated in the election of the president of the Democratic Party and won, becoming the first president of the Liberal Democratic Party since its establishment. Since then, he has won six national elections and promoted "Abenomics" during his tenure, vowing to revive the Japanese economy.
Data map: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe canvassed votes in Soma City, Fukushima, Japan. In order to please the local people, Abe tasted local grilled fish at the event site.
Tobias Harris, a writer who has long studied Japanese politics, said that after overcoming the "stigma of resignation" in 2007 and acknowledging that severe gastrointestinal discomfort was a factor in his resignation, Abe endured the above-mentioned mockery. And determined to avoid similar results.
Harris analyzed that even if the situation deteriorates, Abe may continue to save his economic legacy-"Abenomics."
In fact, in order to get rid of decades of deflation in Japan, the rebound in the Japanese stock market was one of the characteristics of Abe's second term. Until 2020, the new crown epidemic broke out.
The public's low evaluation of the Japanese government's response to the new crown epidemic has directly led to a sharp drop in the support of Abe's cabinet. In August, a joint poll conducted by Nippon Television and Yomiuri Shimbun showed that only 37% of the respondents supported the Abe cabinet, while 57% did not.
Among the reasons for disapproval, 33% of the respondents said that “Abe himself is not credible”. In addition, the proportions of “not expecting policy” and “Abe has no leadership” were 31% and 17% respectively. .
Although the tenure time broke the record
Long list of "regrets"
The New York Times commented that “in this country once known for the brief term of prime minister, Abe’s departure will mark the end of an unusually stable era”.
Perhaps the biggest failure of Abe is that he failed to achieve his goal of "constitutional amendment" due to lack of public support. But in fact, Abe's regrets are much more than that.
Internally, even though Abe pushed "Abenomics" during his tenure and stimulated the Japanese economy to a certain extent, the rise of unilateralism and protectionism, as well as the continuous development of the new crown epidemic, have continuously hit the Japanese economy. The gross domestic product in the second quarter declined historically.
Data map: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
At the same time, a major flood occurred on the southern island of Kyushu, coupled with the deadly heat in recent days, all of which have put the current Japanese government in trouble.
Externally, Abe vigorously carried out diplomacy with Russia at one time, trying to resolve territorial disputes and signing a Japan-Russia peace treaty. He also tried to break the deadlock in Japan-North Korea relations and resolve the so-called "kidnapping" issue. However, none of these efforts has achieved actual results. In fact, at the interim cabinet meeting where he announced his resignation, Abe bluntly stated that he "regretted" that he had not been able to make progress on issues such as the disputed islands between Russia and Japan during his term.
The Tokyo Olympics, originally scheduled to be held in 2020, could have been a major achievement for Abe. However, affected by the epidemic, the Tokyo Olympics has been postponed until next year. Abe’s hopes that the Olympics will boost the economy have failed, and Japan has also failed. The huge amount of money that has been invested in the Olympics has been "failed."
In addition, a series of scandals such as Mori Yu, Kake Gakuen, and the "Sakura Viewing Club" have also made the Abe regime face strong doubts.
Who will succeed in the "post-Abe era"?
As "Abe Time" is about to end, the battle for a new prime minister will also begin. According to NHK reports, Toshihiro Nikai, secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, stated on August 28 that the reorganization of the Japanese cabinet and the re-election of the Liberal Democratic Party’s senior personnel will be carried out as planned in September.
He said that the former secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, Shigeru Shigeru, the head of the Liberal Democratic Party’s political investigation committee, Fumio Kishida, and the chief cabinet secretary of Japan Yoshihide Suga are all strong candidates.
Data map: Shigeru Ishiba, former secretary general of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party.
At present, the most popular candidate for the next prime minister in the Liberal Democratic Party is Abe's "antagonist" Ishibama. On September 20, 2018, Abe defeated Shigeru Ishiba in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election and successfully achieved three consecutive terms. However, in recent polls, Shi Pomao was considered by many people as "a suitable candidate for the next prime minister."
Data map: Fumio Kishida, head of the government affairs investigation committee of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party.
Kishida Fumio is also regarded as one of the strong successors. He served as Japan’s foreign minister from 2012 to 2017, and is the second longest serving foreign minister in Japan after the war, second only to Shigeru Yoshida.
In January 2020, Kishida made a positive statement on taking over as prime minister. This time, regarding Abe's resignation, he said that he had learned the relevant news and his plan to continue running for the next Liberal Democratic Party president "has not changed."
Yoshihide Suga has repeatedly denied any intention to run.
Data map: Taro Kono, Minister of Defense of Japan.
In addition, Defense Minister Taro Kono also intends to participate in the "post-Abe era" competition. In early August, he said, “I would like to enter the Prime Minister’s residence if possible. I have said from the first election that'the ultimate goal is the Prime Minister (Prime Minister)'.”
Taro Kono has been elected as a member of the Diet 8 times and belongs to the Aso faction of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party. He also participated in the presidential election in 2009 shortly after the Liberal Democratic Party government went down the opposition.
Earlier, many Japanese media have included the son of former Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and Minister of the Environment Shinjiro Koizumi as a popular candidate for the "post-Abe era", but he himself did not make much comment.
(Author: Olin Dong Hanyang Li Hongyu Zhang Meng Xiangjun)