The American site Stratfor says that the diminishing influence of Arab nationalist and Islamic movements, and the increasing American pressure will push some Arab countries to soon join the Emirates, to formalize their relations with Israel, thus accelerating the long-term trend of normalization that no longer depends on establishing Palestinian state.
In an article on the motives of Islamic countries to normalize their relations with Israel, the site notes that the technological "attractiveness of Israel" and its defense capabilities will force other Islamic countries with secret relations and a limited history of open conflict with Israel to follow the example of the Emirates.
Israel's relations will expand
He added that Israel will witness an expansion of global economic relations that promote its recovery after the epidemic, in addition to stronger regional allies who will strengthen its position against Iran if the upcoming US elections result in a less hawkish administration in Washington.
He says that the main motives that have traditionally kept Israel isolated in the Islamic world are changing, which opens the door for countries interested in strengthening trade and diplomatic relations to explore normalization.
He explains that the positions of the Islamic and Arab nationalist movements towards Israel were previously centered on anti-Israel narratives, which prompted many Muslims to support the isolation striking Israel and even fight wars with it, adding that however, these movements are weakening as a result of "losing their credibility in part because of their long records in Stirring up failed conflicts with Israel, and its history of governance that did not always improve living standards or provide basic services to its people. "
Generational difference
Ball adds that nationalist and Islamic ideologies are more common among the older Muslim generations, which are generations that represent an increasingly small minority among the approximately 1.8 billion Muslims and Arabs living around the world, noting that the average age of Muslims compared to the average ages in the world is considered low.
Paul also referred to the active support for the administration of President Donald Trump for Israel and its exercise of diplomatic pressure in some places and mediating in other places to improve Israel's relations with various Islamic countries, but he expected this dynamic to change after the US presidential elections in November in the event that the Democratic candidate wins. Joe Biden, who announced that he will increase scrutiny on Israel, and reduce Trump's pressure campaign on Iran.
Who will follow the example of the Emirates first?
The writer said that of the 30 Islamic countries that do not have formal relations with Israel, only 8 have a history of the main conflict, while only 5 - namely Iran, Iraq, Libya, Sudan and Tunisia - have engaged in clandestine action against Israel, mostly by proxy.
It is likely that the Sultanate of Oman, Bahrain and Morocco, before others, will follow the example of the UAE in normalization, with the drive to obtain Israeli education, technology and defense cooperation.
It is also likely that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Sudan will start moving towards normalization, but will not seek to spread it as quickly as Abu Dhabi, adding that the difference in strategic, diplomatic and ideological pressures in these countries means that there is no guarantee that one will move faster than others.
Islamic influence curbing, but not preventing normalization
The writer continued his speculation, saying that other countries with large economies and Muslim populations - such as Malaysia and Pakistan - have stronger Islamic influence, which will curb but not necessarily prevent normalization with Israel.
He claimed that Israeli desert-friendly agricultural technologies are well suited to the Arab Gulf states that suffer from food scarcity, just as the higher education sector in Israel surpasses most Arab Gulf institutions.
He added that governments and companies around the world often search for healthcare technologies and defense systems in Israel.