ANALYSIS
Turkey will make "no concessions" to defend its gas interests in the Mediterranean: by raising the tone further, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is participating in the escalation of tensions in south-eastern Europe. The Turkish president even threatens to use force against Athens. Its ships continue their illegal drilling in the territorial waters of Greece. Paris warns: "This zone should not be the playground of the ambitions of some". France has started a new maneuver in the area with Italy, Greece and Cyprus.
This provocative, anti-Western and anti-European statement is today the basis of Recep Erdogan's policy. It is a way of seeking to mobilize his Islamo-conservative electoral base, through the exaltation of the grandiose past of the Ottoman Empire, of which he would be the faithful heir.
Erdogan's systematic confrontation
This is one of his only chances to stay in power after 17 years of unchallenged reign and rather average, if not heartbreaking, economic results. It is absolutely no coincidence that this statement was made on Wednesday morning. It is the anniversary of a battle that took place in Anatolia in 1071, almost 950 years ago. It marks the victory of the Seljuk sultan and therefore of the Turks over the emperor of Byzantium and therefore the Greeks.
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To us this may seem totally ridiculous, but Erdogan is building up a diplomacy of systematic confrontation with Europe piece by piece. Whether at the symbolic level, with the reconversion of the Hagia Sophia church into a mosque, on the strategic ground with this naval campaign of intimidation which aims to transform the Mediterranean into the Turkish inland sea.
A problematic Berlin declaration?
Germany calls for an immediate resumption of dialogue, because it believes that Turkey and Greece are "on the edge of the precipice and could fall there". This poses a problem: one has the impression that for fear of confrontation, Berlin sends Ankara and Athens back to back, while there is still an aggressor and an attacked.
However, this is the type of reaction that completely plays into Erdogan's game. Turkey is particularly attacking Europe, because it knows it is politically weak, even fearful. The only way to stop Erdogan's Ottoman ranting is to show unfailing European solidarity. This is the meaning of the naval maneuvers that France and Italy are organizing at this very moment with Greece and Cyprus.