In his first “carte blanche”, a new event for the “Grand evening newspaper” of Europe 1, Philippe Besson analyzes the dynamics of French political parties at the start of the school year. And for the writer, the uncertain certainties of today do not prevent political surprises in the next two years.

EDITORIAL

The writer Philippe Besson listened attentively to the speech of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Sunday, at the end of the summer school of La France insoumise in the Drôme. The leader of the rebels postponed his choice for the next presidential election until October, while the other political parties are in the starting blocks for the next electoral deadlines. With, obviously, 2022 in sight, as the analysis Philippe Besson in his first "carte blanche" of the Grand journal du soir , Monday.

"I admit, I was as much amused as I was annoyed by the contortions of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, not to say his pretense. Ira? Won't go? He did not answer on Sunday but, I promise, he will do us the favor of putting an end to our ordeal in October. A relative ordeal, nevertheless, because I wonder if there is a single person in France who seriously thinks that Jean-Luc Mélenchon will not be a candidate. His ego would survive. One can even say without much fear of being contradicted that he will also appear in 2027 and 2032. It is his side 'Companions of the Song' or Fidel Castro: he does not know to hang up.

The Ecologists also held their summer school

Among environmentalists also, ambitions are asserted. Driven by their electoral success in the European elections last year and in the municipal elections this year, they are convinced that it is their turn. Let's be honest: they have real reason to believe it. Moreover, Yannick Jadot proclaims it, he who is 'preparing'. Except that Eric Piolle, the mayor of Grenoble, has no intention of leaving him the place. And that Julien Bayou, the boss of Europe Ecology-The Greens, does not find him far enough on the left. And that Nicolas Hulot, like a dusty ghost, threatens to come out of his closet at any time. Environmentalists have no equal when it comes to shooting themselves in the foot.

In the Socialist Party, on the other hand, we do not see anything coming

We cite the name of Anne Hidalgo who, however, never ceases to swear that she is very happy in her position as mayor of Paris and has no intention of running as a candidate. These are all denials that allow us to say that it will therefore appear on the starting line. She would already be putting herself in order of battle and waiting for her name to prevail, which should not be difficult since in the Socialist Party, there are only 'has been' or 'nobodies' left.

And on the right, what's going on?

It starts to jostle. Recall that the candidate Les Républicains did not appear in the second round in 2017, that the party made 8% in Europeans, that Emmanuel Macron siphoned off the party's traditional electorate. But that does not prevent believing in it. As proof, Xavier Bertrand wanted to send us a postcard from Corsica during his holidays: he too is 'getting ready'. On the other hand, for him, there is no question of submitting to the primaries: he will not, in addition, ask the voters for their opinion.

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On Sunday, Bruno Retailleau took a position in Les Latest Nouvelles d'Alsace : he is embarking on the race. 'Bruno who?' But if, the guy who was in the shadow of François Fillon. Fillon, you remember, the guy who got blackballed with his pans three years ago. A winner's profile, therefore, this Retailleau.

We also mention François Baroin. A clamor rises, a friendly pressure emerges. Except that the interested party takes pleasure in absent subscribers and does not really want it, it seems. About him, Nicolas Sarkozy would also have whispered: 'I find it hard to convince myself that if he does not want in July, he will want in September.' As all this is cruelly said.

On the far right, Marine Le Pen will be a candidate

Yes, Marine Le Pen told us in January, just to pull the rug out from under her niece. Not really a scoop, you will tell me: a Le Pen has been a candidate in all the presidential elections since 1988. We can say that we have consistency and perseverance in the family. Some say this might be the right time. Who knows ? In this case, I have a suggestion: we should immediately decide to suppress the debate between the two rounds. A second live crash would be fatal.

You are not talking about Emmanuel Macron ...

Emmanuel Macron doesn't say anything because he can't say anything, obviously. He won't say anything for as long as possible because it's in his best interest. But there is no doubt, either, that he will be a candidate. Apart from François Hollande, all the outgoing presidents have represented themselves, but was François Hollande really president? And then, appointing Jean Castex in Matignon, promoting Gérald Darmanin, pampering Bruno Le Maire, resuscitating Roselyne Bachelot, pursuing a liberal and security policy demonstrate it: he fully intends to be the candidate for the right. He must have read the political scientist Jérôme Fourquet who explains to us that 'France is more to the right than ever' and he drew the necessary lessons from it.

All this is not very exciting!

'We are never safe from a surprise,' my grandmother kept telling me. So why not hope for one? We have the right to dream, to extravagate, to fantasize, right? My grandmother always added: 'The problem with surprises is that they are often bad'. "