ANALYSIS
The image is totally surreal: Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian President, getting out of his helicopter, Kalashnikov in hand, arriving at his residence in Minsk. Contested by part of Belarusian society since the elections of August 9, the leader does not want to negotiate anything with his opponents. It seeks to repress in an authoritarian manner the protest, a strategy which however presents a risk.
The message of repression launched by Alexander Lukashenko was perfectly understood by the security organs, which embarked on a vast roundup of opponents. The first to pay the price of this hardening of the regime are the workers. Strong interventions were carried out on Monday against the Minsk tractor plant, one of the capital's largest conglomerates and especially the first bastion of the protest. In the provinces, riot police units stormed the potash mines of Saligorsk, a large industrial town.
Worker disallowance
In reality, the Belarusian regime fears above all the economic paralysis of the country, which lurks. This explains why most of the people arrested on Monday are members of the Coordination Council, the structure which organizes and manages the general strike.
>> Find Europe Soir with Julian Bugier in replay and podcast here
For a regime with an extremely populist discourse that accuses the entire opposition of being remote-controlled by the West, the massive workers' revolt represents a real disavowal. It is also a much more serious challenge than a student movement.
The weight of Russia
Under these conditions, can Alexander Lukashenko really lose power? In any case, he clearly lost the confidence of his people. His ability to keep his post as president will depend on the loyalty of his security apparatus. And therefore, in large part, of the tolerance that Moscow will show towards it, knowing that Vladimir Poutine is not really a support for Alexander Lukashenko.
A priori, the Russian president will not take the risk of bringing him down. But if the crisis worsens and if he finds a replacement capable of guaranteeing Russia's interests, he will not hesitate for a second to let him go.