After the declaration of a ceasefire by the reconciliation government and the Tobruk Parliament, public opinion raises questions about the future of retired Major General Khalifa Haftar and the options of the parties that have supported him over the past years.
Ahmed Al-Mesmari, a spokesman for Haftar's forces, said that his forces are ready to respond to any attack around Sirte, noting that Al-Sarraj's initiative to cease fire is an attempt at media marketing.
Al-Mismari’s statements are the first official response from Haftar’s forces to the declaration of a ceasefire and the resumption of Libyan oil production.
Analysts and politicians believe that Haftar feels that his supporters are leaving him with each passing day since his heavy loss in Tripoli, in addition to his fear of international sanctions and prosecution in America for the war crimes he committed in Libya.
The Al-Wefaq government's advisor for US relations, Muhammad Al-Darrat, considered that "Haftar's position rejecting a ceasefire" stems from Russian and perhaps Emirati directives because of his awareness that his ambitions to rule Libya were buried on the walls of Tripoli.
"Haftar knows that giving up what the Russians dictate may make him lose his position in negotiations with the rest of the international parties," he added.
But at the same time, he expected that the UAE and Egypt would not continue to support Haftar militarily to avoid falling into an endless swamp, and therefore "they are looking to achieve their goals through other means."
And he said in a statement to Al-Jazeera Net that the Speaker of the Tobruk Parliament, Aqila Saleh, is facing a major challenge to convince the international community that he is fit to be an effective political front representing the eastern region, after Haftar refused a ceasefire.
Media heresy
. A member of the Supreme Council of State, Adel Karmous believes that any statement issued by Haftar and his official spokesperson is a media heresy that will not have any impact on the current negotiations for a ceasefire in Libya.
Karmous said in a statement to Al-Jazeera Net, "Haftar's heavy losses, his departure from southern Tripoli and Tarhuna, and his recent forced to open oil facilities, made him in an embarrassing position in front of his angry supporters as a result of being thrown into a bloody war that he finally lost."
Karmous considered that the Egyptian authorities are cautiously seeking rapprochement with the reconciliation government, after Haftar's excruciating failure and the Russian intervention, which Washington opposes, trying to install Aqila Saleh as a representative of the Eastern Region as an alternative to Haftar, in contrast to the failed policy of the Emirates hostile to the reconciliation government and the Arab Spring revolutions.
Karmos confirmed that Haftar will soon be held accountable as an American citizen for human rights violations in Libya and for dealing with the mercenaries of the Russian Wagner Company and for bringing the Russians into Libya.
Haftar is out of the scene
In turn, political analyst Ismail Al-Mahishi believes that Haftar has become outside the political scene after being excluded from the recent consensus and will not have a future role in the political process.
"Haftar does not control the Russian mercenaries who are in Sirte and Jufrah, in addition to the Janjaweed and Chadian mercenaries and their armed militias, they may leave him at any time when his financial sources dry up," Al-Muhaishi added.
Al-Mohaishi told Al-Jazeera Net that Haftar will not be able to exploit any political investment in the region because the major countries have overtaken him, after missing an opportunity that was available to him before his bloody attack on Tripoli and his failure to seize power.
Al-Muhaishi indicated that the countries supporting Haftar may change their aggressive policy towards the reconciliation government, as we recently saw from the French government, which seems to be intending to change its political course based on its interests.
He added that some countries that support Haftar will defend him until the last minute and will not change their course due to their involvement in the Libyan blood for fear of being held accountable in the future.
The essence of the Cairo declaration
As for the member of the House of Representatives in Tobruk, Ziad Daghim, he considered that Ahmed Al-Mesmari, a spokesman for Haftar's forces, questioned the sincerity of the intentions of the Presidential Council of the Government of National Accord and did not announce the rejection of the cease-fire that is the basis of the principles in the Cairo Declaration.
Daghim added to Al-Jazeera Net, "Egypt, the Emirates, Russia, France and Saudi Arabia all quickly welcomed the ceasefire statements issued by Al-Sarraj and Aqila Saleh."
And he added, "The military establishment led by Haftar is professional and legitimate, derives its legitimacy from the House of Representatives, operates according to the laws in force and will continue."