China News Service, August 24 (Zhang Olin) On August 24, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe became the Japanese prime minister with the longest consecutive term in office. For Abe, this day would have been his "icing on the cake" highlight: if there was no new crown epidemic, the Tokyo Olympics would have closed on August 9 and the economic recession caused by the epidemic would not exist.
However, the reality is the opposite, and Abe's seemingly beautiful plans are broken. Not only was the Olympics supported a year later, the cabinet approval rating also plummeted, and his body seemed to have a "red light" when he was 65 years old. There is still a year to go until the end of the term. How many pages are left in the "regret list" left by Abe?
Data map: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The epidemic hit
"Wishful thinking" all failed
At the beginning of August, the Japanese magazine "Flash" exposed "severe material", claiming that Abe "vomited blood" at the prime minister's residence on July 6. And as early as July 5, a Liberal Democratic Party congressman revealed that "seeing (Abe's) face is really worried, I feel that he has reached the limit." Recently, 65-year-old Abe went straight to Keio University Hospital and stayed there for more than 7 hours, which has aroused concerns about his health in Japanese politics.
Although the hospital said after the incident that Abe had only conducted an "additional medical examination," and the authorities also denied all speculations, insiders in the Japanese government revealed that Abe may have been "working hard" in responding to the new crown epidemic. However, the measures taken by Abe in response to the epidemic did not seem to have been satisfactory.
After the outbreak of the new crown in late January, the Japanese government did not declare a national emergency until mid-April. At that time, the total number of confirmed cases in Japan was approaching 10,000.
When the epidemic situation has not been completely stabilized, the Japanese government "unblocked the epidemic" on May 25, which laid the roots for the second wave of the epidemic at the end of June.
On the one hand, the number of cases has risen in the past few days, and on the other hand, the GDP that has continued to fall. In the dilemma, Abe seems to choose the latter. Although the severity of the epidemic’s rebound is far greater than before, Abe made it clear that he will not declare a state of emergency again, and at the same time continue to promote the "Go To Travel" plan to promote tourism recovery. At present, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Japan has exceeded 60,000, and more than 1,000 people have died.
A recent poll showed that the approval rate of Japan's Abe cabinet dropped to 37.2%. (Photo source: Screenshot from the Japan Jiji News Agency)
Abe's series of reactions and the surge in the number of cases have led to growing public dissatisfaction. According to a poll conducted by Japan's Jiji News Agency in early August, Abe's cabinet's approval rating dropped sharply to 32.7%, the second lowest since taking office in 2012. Among them, 60% of the people made it clear that they were not satisfied with Abe's response to the epidemic.
For Abe, the "cold water pouring on the back" of 2020 is far more than that.
Since coming to power, Abe's intention to amend the "peace constitution" to make Japan a so-called "normal country" has become clear. After the reorganization of the cabinet in 2019, it has repeatedly declared that he hopes to complete the "constitutional amendment" during his term. However, the epidemic has caused the "constitutional amendment" to be completely shelved. If he wants to achieve it during his term, it may be an empty basket.
Not only that, at the closing ceremony of the 2016 Rio Olympics, when Abe suddenly "flashed" in a Mario costume, he was full of longing for the incumbent prime minister to announce that Japan will successfully host the Olympics. However, contrary to expectations, the Tokyo Olympics were postponed due to the epidemic, and Abe's "wishful abacus" that originally hoped to boost Japan's economy through the Olympics also fell through.
End of term
Difficult to break through multiple difficulties?
In 2019, when he became the prime minister with the longest tenure in Japan's constitutional history, Abe once said that he "will go all out for the rest of his term." Today, his number of consecutive days in office has surpassed his uncle and former Japanese prime minister Eisaku Sato, becoming the Japanese prime minister with the longest consecutive term in office.
Not surprisingly, the "Abe time" of Japan's political arena will come to an end in September 2021. Faced with a mountain of difficulties in domestic and foreign affairs, can Abe make a breakthrough in the last year of his term?
Data map: South Korean people protested in front of the Japanese embassy.
——Diplomacy: The old questions have not been solved, the new difficulties are coming again
For Abe, diplomacy has always been an area where he wants to make great efforts. However, the reality is that there are many difficulties. The first thing to bear is the old troubled Japan-South Korea relationship.
The contradictions between Japan and South Korea are inherently intricate. In 2019, due to a series of compensation issues caused by Japan's forced labor recruitment during World War II, the relationship between the two countries has become even more intense.
More than a year has passed. Not only is it difficult for both parties to see signs of relaxation, but the South Korean court has recently confiscated the assets of the Japanese companies involved, which has further intensified.
Zhou Yongsheng, a professor at the Institute of International Relations of the China Foreign Affairs University, said in an interview with a reporter from Chinanews.com that Japan and South Korea will not make concessions because of the great differences between the two sides. It is very difficult for this issue to be resolved under Abe's tenure.
Another historical problem is undoubtedly the ownership of the disputed islands between Japan and Russia (the four northern islands in Japan and the southern Kuril Islands in Russia). Since the 1950s, the two sides have been involved in a long-term dispute over this issue. At present, due to multiple factors such as the new crown epidemic and conflicts of interest between the two sides, negotiations on a peace agreement between the two sides have also been shelved.
In this regard, Zhou Yongsheng believes that this issue is unlikely to be broken during the remaining term of Abe. Because "the two sides have reached a stalemate on the territorial issue. Although Japan still routinely mentions the territorial issue, Japan has no expectations of returning to the four northern islands (Russian called the Southern Kuril Islands) and will not invest too much energy." .
Just as the diplomatic relations with Russia and South Korea were at a deadlock, another "heavy punch" came from behind, and Abe was caught off guard.
US President Trump (right) and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Photo by China News Agency reporter Diao Haiyang
Former U.S. President's National Security Affairs Assistant Bolton once disclosed in his memoirs that Trump had hinted that Japan would need to pay more than four times the current funding for the US troops stationed in Japan, amounting to US$8 billion. Although Japan is very worried about this, Zhou Yongsheng believes that Japan may not be able to avoid additional funding.
"Whether it is dealing with the Obama administration or the Trump administration, Abe wants to hold back the United States and coordinate with the United States on the premise of obeying the overall interests of the United States' strategy." Zhou Yongsheng explained Abe's policy toward the United States. .
In addition to the issue of military expenditures, the issue of US troops stationed in Japan can be said to be a "sorrowful tooth" of Japan. The frequent accidents and crimes of US soldiers have plagued the surrounding people for many years. In this regard, Zhou Yongsheng pointed out that although Japan is promoting the relocation of US military bases in Okinawa, the US military has always had extraterritorial powers on the issue of US military crimes and harassment, and Abe has no ability to change it.
——Internal Affairs: Economic recession, who will succeed?
The diplomatic dilemma is difficult to resolve, and the situation in Japan is not optimistic.
Abe has been promoting what he calls "Abenomics" since he took office, but the results have not been significant. He is full of strength and wants to boost the weakening domestic economy through the Tokyo Olympics.
But things backfired. Not only was the Olympics postponed, Japan's GDP in the second quarter also experienced the biggest drop since World War II. In this regard, Zhou Yongsheng believes that Japan cannot expect a large-scale economic recovery in the short term as the epidemic continues.
Data map: National Diet Building of Japan.
At the same time, since Abe has repeatedly stated that he will not be re-elected as prime minister of Japan again, where will the Japanese political situation in the "post-Abe era" go, or will become the focus of Abe's remaining term.
At present, Abe is planning to carry out cabinet reorganization and Liberal Democratic Party personnel adjustments in September. Although the current Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai intends to stay in office, Fumio Kishida has also revealed his ambitions.
Since the Japanese prime minister is the head of the largest party in the National Assembly, the post of secretary general, known as the “second-in-command” of the Liberal Democratic Party, will be the head of the party. It is self-explanatory for the future direction of Japanese politics. Some Japanese media even said that Abe is facing a major decision, and if the judgment is wrong, it will seriously shake the fundamentals of the regime.
Regardless of internal affairs or diplomacy, Abe has a lot to do, and because of this, Japanese media ridiculed that his "biggest achievement" is the record-breaking time in office.
However, if the new crown epidemic is still serious and the Tokyo Olympics are eventually cancelled, Abe, as the 96th Japanese prime minister's "regret list" when he leaves office, may have to add another item. (Finish)