Muhammad Al-Minshawi - Washington
The Iranian announcement of the success of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in launching a satellite for military purposes was met with shock and confusion in the American capital.
During a press conference at the White House on Wednesday evening, President Donald Trump responded to a question about the Iranian military satellite by saying, "We are watching Tehran closely." Before that, he confirmed that there were orders to open fire on any Iranian boat approaching American ships in the region.
Initial news reports indicated that the US intelligence services lied to the Iranian claim about its success in launching a military satellite.
The reports also indicated that an official in the Ministry of Defense said that the intelligence did not monitor the entry of any Iranian satellite into Earth orbit, adding that "the information suggests that the launch operation will fail."
However, CNN confirmed during its evening programs late on Wednesday that the assessment of the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) concluded that the test of launching the Iranian satellite was successful for the first time after several failed attempts in the past.
The ambiguity of the launch
, and military expert David De Roach from the National Defense University in Washington tweeted, "Iran launches its first military satellite, and in theory this means that it has the capabilities to launch intercontinental missiles." If this estimate is correct, this would be a dangerous development in the escalating confrontation between Tehran and Washington. .
For his part, Professor Jawdat Bahjat at the Center for the Near East and South Asia of the American National Defense University believes that the US government has not yet confirmed that "Iran has succeeded in launching the satellite."
In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, Bahjat confirmed that "if the Iranian story is correct, it will not be a surprise. Iran has been trying for years to launch satellites and has always failed, like everything else in life. If the attempt is repeated, it will one day be able to succeed."
In an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, David de Roach affirmed that the Iranian step is "an Iranian achievement in light of the repeated failures that their past experiences have witnessed. Now Iran has four satellites, and the last one only has a military nature, and this does not mean much."
The US State Department expressed its public condemnation of Iran's missile and space programs, considering them a violation of Security Council Resolution 2231, and called on member states to take a decisive stance against the Iranian step.
The resolution calls on Iran to "refrain from any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads, including those that use ballistic missile technology," and Iran denies that its missiles aim to carry nuclear warheads, and that its programs do not violate international resolutions.
For his part, former US ambassador David Mack told Al-Jazeera Net that "Iranian experts are exaggerating their country's military and technological capabilities to intimidate Arab countries on the other side of the Gulf."
Mack said that "senior Trump administration officials may have underestimated the technical and technological capabilities of the Iranians, while exaggerating Iran's hostile intentions."
Iranian messages
Professor Jawdat Bahjat indicates to Al-Jazeera Net that "Iran sends a message that, despite the sanctions and the spread of the Corona virus, it is able to advance and improve its military capabilities."
De Roach believes that the regime in Tehran "wants to appear in a good position, especially after the resounding failure, which was the shooting down of a civilian airliner after it took off from Tehran airport at the beginning of this year."
American military experts disagree over Iran's capabilities that allow it to launch a satellite, and those related to the ability to launch long-range and ICBM missiles.
The experiences of other countries show that "intercontinental missile launch technology can be exploited to launch satellites for non-military uses, but the opposite is not certain. The ability to launch a satellite does not automatically mean the existence of the ability to launch ICBMs," according to Professor Bahjat.
Missile range:
Military expert David de Roach believes that "the range of ICBMs is estimated at 5,500 km, but the Iranian satellite's capacity does not exceed 2000 km only."
"Of course, this is progress, but it is still a limited progress in the end. Iran's missiles come from North Korea and have heavy weight, and it is very difficult to convert them into ICBMs," he added.
De Roach underestimates the importance of Iran's successful launch of the satellite, saying that "thirty years ago a few countries owned satellites. Now those satellites own a lot of private companies that have technology that allows placing a satellite in its orbit, so what the Iranians have achieved is of no value." "They are aiming for gains in improving the image and public relations."
Bahjat agrees with De Roach in assessing the size of the Iranian achievement, and concluded that “it is important not to exaggerate Iran's military and intelligence capabilities, and if Iran’s success in launching a satellite for espionage purposes is confirmed, this is an important achievement, but the United States and its allies in the region still have technological capabilities. And military more than its Iranian counterpart. "