Trump's official opponent: will Biden be able to mobilize the electorate to win the US presidential election

Joe Biden is officially elected as the US Democratic presidential candidate. This is evidenced by the results of voting at the party congress.

"I am pleased to inform you that (former. - RT ) Vice President Joe Biden has been officially elected as the Democratic presidential candidate for the United States," said the head of the organizing committee of the congress, Congressman Benny Thompson.

Biden called his nomination "a great honor."

It is the honor of my life to accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States of America. #DemConvention

During the congress, Biden's party members presented a number of arguments in favor of why he was chosen.

According to former United States President Jimmy Carter, Biden "has the experience, character and decency" to unite the country and "restore America's greatness." Another former American leader, Bill Clinton, in turn, called Biden a man who does not shift responsibility to others.

For former Secretary of State John Kerry, Biden's "moral compass" always pointed in the right direction. As the politician noted, the former vice president understands that none of the world's problems can be resolved "without the unification of countries."

Recall that the US presidential elections are scheduled for November 3. Joe Biden's main opponents in the inner-party struggle for the right to compete with Donald Trump in this campaign were Senator Bernie Sanders and ex-San Francisco prosecutor Kamala Harris. Her Biden recently nominated as a candidate for the post of Vice President of the United States.

• Former American Vice President Joe Biden
• © Carlos Barria / Reuters

"Far from being an ideal politician"

Meanwhile, as Yuri Rogulev, director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the United States at Moscow State University, noted in a conversation with RT, according to a number of parameters, Biden is "far from an ideal politician, and the Democratic Party is aware of this."

The former deputy prime minister "has changed his political attitudes more than once," his figure is quite controversial in many respects, Andrey Sidorov, head of the department of international organizations and world political processes at the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University, explained in an interview with RT.

“However, this particular candidate seems to be a compromise for the majority of the Democratic Party, which is also not monolithic. If Biden wins, he will be a very weak president. He is a rather elderly man who, most likely, will take care of his health, and his entourage, the presidential apparatus, will rule the ball. In such situations, people appointed to the post of Secretary of State, Defense Minister, National Security Adviser usually gain special influence - these people will determine US policy, ”Sidorov said.

According to Yuri Rogulev, voters who intend to vote for Biden simply "do not want to see Donald Trump in the presidency." At the same time, the Democratic Party relied on Biden, since he is a "well-known political figure".

“Even in this sense, Trump makes fun of him, in his last speeches he calls him O'Biden, hinting that his figure is such a shadow of Obama, and nothing more. Biden is not wildly popular, ”the analyst stated.

Attack against Trump

It is worth noting that at the Congress of Democrats, in addition to words about Biden's advantages as a political figure, criticism of the current US president was also clearly sounded.

So, the democrat and the former acting US Attorney General Sally Yates said that since coming to power, Donald Trump allegedly "used his position for his own good, not the good of the country."

“He trampled on the rule of law in an effort to turn the Justice Department into a weapon to attack his enemies and protect his friends,” she said.

Bill Clinton, in turn, accused Trump of shifting responsibility to others.

“Donald Trump says we are a world leader. True, we are the only large industrialized state where the unemployment rate has tripled. In times like these, the Oval Office should be the command center, but in reality it is the epicenter of the storm. There is only chaos. Only one thing remains unchanged - his desire to evade responsibility and shift the blame (on others. - RT ), "Clinton said.

John Kerry also criticized the American leader.

“He (Trump - RT ) does not want to defend our country. He doesn't know how to protect our military. The only person he wants to defend is himself, ”the democrat said, probably referring to the story with the appearance of information in the American media about Russia's“ conspiracy ”with the Taliban against the US military. Let us remind that the corresponding data was not confirmed by either Washington or Moscow.

According to Yuri Rogulev, in the time remaining before the elections, the Democratic campaign will be based on criticism of Trump.

• Great Seal of the USA
• Reuters
• © Carlo Allegri

"At the same time, such accusations will be distributed in different areas: a pandemic, an economic crisis, the topic of racism, arms control, dialogue with China," the expert said.

Andrei Sidorov adheres to a similar position. According to him, the Democrats "will try to associate Trump with a universal evil."

“Against the US President and everything bad - this is, in fact, the program of the Democratic Party,” he said.

"Every Voice Matters"

Meanwhile, Donald Trump noted that the ratings of the Democratic National Convention "left much to be desired." At the same time, he stressed that the candidates from the Republican and Democratic parties will have almost equal chances of winning the elections, therefore, "every vote is important to him."

“Do not get sick, be vigilant, be extremely careful. Go ahead and do your best. Your every vote is important to us, as the election campaign is likely to be tough. I always assume that the odds will be almost equal. In the arsenal of fake media there are underrating opinion polls, in which they poll significantly more Democrats than Republicans, ”the head of the White House said during a speech to his supporters in Arizona.

According to Trump, if he does not win, "the Biden plan will unleash" on the US such a wave of illegal immigration as the world has never seen. "

“This is complete madness! Biden's immigration plan is the most radical, extreme, reckless, dangerous, and disastrous that a major party candidate has ever proposed. He needs to be prevented, and on November 3 it will happen! ”, Said the President.

In addition, according to him, if he wins, Biden will erase all the achievements of the previous administration.

“If we do not win, they (the Democrats - RT ) will be able to bring it all back. As for our undertakings - and we have achieved very, very much, whether in relation to our military, our veterans, or whatever - it’s like with a tree: it needs some time to settle down. You plant a tree and it must take root. If we have four more years, they will not be able to do anything - our country will confidently move forward, ”the American leader said.

According to the aggregator of sociological surveys RealClearPolitics, 49.9% are now ready to vote for Biden, and 42.3% for Trump. At the same time, according to CNN, the gap between the head of the White House and the former vice president is only 4 percentage points (50% versus 46%, respectively).

"The advantage is noticeably diminishing"

As noted by Yuri Rogulev, it was not for nothing that Trump "started a live campaign against the Democrats."

“He's embarked on a trip to states that are considered to be wavering. The head of the White House should never be written off. If the number of cases of coronavirus decreases, and now it is still high, then Trump's chances of winning will increase many times, "Rogulev said.

At the same time, he noted that already now we can talk about the growth of the ratings of the current American leader.

“If at the beginning of the summer Biden's advantage was around 10%, now it is noticeably decreasing,” the analyst said.

• Polling station in Miami
• Reuters
• © Marco Bello

Andrei Sidorov, for his part, notes that Trump, unlike the Democrats, "relies on law and order." 

“He demonstrates that he intends to preserve traditional America. The head of the White House counts on his deep-seated electorate, which usually does not throw out its emotions on the streets, but, as a rule, votes consistently for order in the country, ”Sidorov says.

Yuri Rogulev emphasizes that one should not expect any special "heat of passion" during this campaign, since it takes place during a pandemic.

“Biden does not leave the house at all, he holds all the events there. And the round tables that the Democratic Party is trying to organize are virtual. This format, of course, does little to mobilize the electorate, ”the expert stated.

He also drew attention to the fact that the Congress of Democrats was held in an online format, many speeches were recorded, which "smacked of some formalism, so the Americans watched it without enthusiasm."

“Even the channels traditionally supporting the Democratic Party did not broadcast this event in its entirety,” the analyst noted.

From the point of view of political scientists, the main factors on which the outcome of the elections in the United States depends will be the dynamics of economic recovery, the possibility of voting by mail, and the debate between Biden and Trump.

“Now the candidates' chances are really approximately equal. The state of the economy can be a decisive factor here. Even if her performance deteriorates, Trump can still win, but only if there is no sharp decline. The second factor is voting by mail. If, nevertheless, such a method of expressing will is used, it will negatively affect Trump's chances, since a large number of people will take part in the vote, who usually do not go to the polls and do not support Trump. The third factor is Biden's possible refusal to debate. In this case, the current head of the White House will be able to boldly declare that the Democratic candidate is simply afraid to make a reservation again, ”Sidorov says.

In addition, he noted that "the Democratic Party is split from within, and is united only by antipathy towards Trump."

“However, there is no certainty that this factor will be enough to consolidate the party and mobilize the electorate. There are also serious doubts as to how much Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be able to represent the interests of the left wing. They will have to maneuver between the left, the centrists and the moderates. And it is extremely difficult to pursue such a line, because often these parties adhere to diametrically opposite positions, ”the expert concluded.