Political events in Lebanon are accelerating at a great pace that may affect the course of forming the government, especially after the decision of the International Court to indict the accused Salim Ayyash, affiliated with Hezbollah, for the assassination of Rafik Hariri.
Since Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab resigned his government days after the Beirut port explosion on August 4, Lebanon has entered a new phase of "conducting business", under the weight of political circumstances and pressure from the international community, which calls on Lebanon to implement reforms and form a government of The independents do not participate in it, in return for opening the door to financial aid.
The question is: How will the decision of the International Tribunal affect the formation of the government in Lebanon? What does the internationally required reforms hide?
Dr. Mustafa Alloush, a member of the political bureau in the Future Movement - headed by Saad Hariri - believes that until this moment there are no clear indications of the impact of the international court’s decision on the process of forming the government, and that the matter depends on Hezbollah’s stance towards it, and is expected to ignore it.
However, Alloush believes that the court’s decision has repercussions on political relations, based on Hariri’s direct statement to hold the party responsible for committing the crime and his indication that "the time for sacrifices is over."
No gray positions
Alloush says to Al-Jazeera Net, "Hariri cannot take gray positions after today, in front of his fans first, which means that in the foreseeable future he will not be the head of a national unity government in which Hezbollah will participate."
According to Alloush, Hezbollah's insistence on formulating a national unity government is "poisoned to put us in the forefront and then fail us, but stubbornness will not help it in the long term, at a time when there are no signs of forming a new government."
Alloush stems from the main axes of the reforms required of Lebanon, foremost among which is the electricity issue, then the issue of waste and water and the dispute over dams, leading to structural reforms in the public and private sectors, which need restoration and liberation from political domination.
He added, "All these reforms cannot be achieved without the state restoring its sovereignty, because carrying out long-term projects needs to be neutral from regional conflicts and security stability without the adventures of Hezbollah, whose presence Iran uses as a military base." As for the insistence of the international community on Lebanon's demand. With reforms, in addition to pushing him to rid his sovereignty of the domination of Iran and Hezbollah, it "means going to more violence before reaching stability."
International demands
For his part, writer and political analyst Wasim Bazzi (close to Hezbollah) considers that talking about the demands of the so-called international community has become a hybrid in Lebanon, especially after the Americans' attempts to attack the French initiative were evident by the invitation of French President Emmanuel Macron during His presence in Beirut led to the formation of a national unity government, which also includes Hezbollah, and he admitted his presence as soon as he met with the party’s vice president, Muhammad Raad.
Bazzi told Al-Jazeera Net, "After the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale to Lebanon, international demands were turned upside down, and the Americans clearly and systematically dwarfed the French role in Lebanon as a result of its openness to Hezbollah, and to say that the final word is for them."
Regarding the reforms required from Lebanon, Bazzi believes that they are the demand of the Lebanese before the international community, and that Hassan Diab's government has already drawn up its reform plan, but these reforms - according to Bazzi - conceal political goals for America and its allies in Lebanon and abroad, and that they are a good title that is intended to undermine the presence of The resistance in the Lebanese political decision, and "Hill exploited the issue of the port explosion to talk about what he called illegal crossings, the land borders with Syria and the sea with Israel."
Bazzi added, "The party is clear in its demand to form a clear and protected political government that has the current confidence of the parliament. It holds the strongest card in Lebanon with the legitimacy of its representation of the parliamentary majority, and the caretaker government continues with the force of a fait accompli."
Hezbollah's bet
on the level of the party's allies, Walid Al-Ashqar, a member of the political council in the Free Patriotic Movement, considers that the decision of the International Tribunal will not affect the course of forming the government, and the decision confirmed Hezbollah’s theory that the ruling does not affect the political game in Lebanon, and will not constitute any pressure card on it. Inside Lebanon. "
Al-Ashqar reveals to Al-Jazeera Net that there are new proposals that have begun to circulate in the corridors of the Republican Palace, about the possibility of going to form a "polar government", that is, represented by the leaders of the first row of the main political forces in Lebanon, and that there is another vision about the possibility of forming an independent government headed by Hassan Diab Himself.
"The governments of national unity have proven their failure in Lebanon, because they transfer political struggles in the parliament to a narrower scope that is reflected within the government, but necessities remain their rulings," Ashkar says. As for Hariri to head a non-political government representing all forces in Lebanon, "this is an unlikely option that no one from the party and its allies will accept," according to a member of the Political Council of the Free Patriotic Movement.
Active neutrality
on another level. Last Monday, a remarkable position emerged of the Maronite Patriarch, Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Ra'i, who launched the memorandum of "active neutrality", in an indirect "Christian" correction against the legality of Hezbollah's existence and its weapons, as well as rejecting any external proposal for the "new charter." As a gateway to negotiate with the party.
The position of the Patriarch comes in contrast to the position of the head of the Free Patriotic Movement in Lebanon, Gebran Bassil, who declared his party’s refusal to participate in what he called “an external and internal blockade on an entire Lebanese component,” that is, against Hezbollah. Did the Patriarch want to embarrass Bassil in front of the Christian street in Lebanon and the international community behind him?
Al-Ashqar rejects this link, and considers that his movement’s position on neutrality is clear, and Bassil previously expressed it, and that standing by Hezbollah in the international siege that it faces is a natural thing, “just as we previously stood by Saad Hariri when he was kidnapped in Saudi Arabia in 2017.” .
Al-Ashqar considers that the reforms required from Lebanon are the demand of his movement for 10 years in various files. He said, "The international community has no right to violate Lebanon's sovereignty by imposing its conditions on the mechanism for forming the government, and if it wants an independent government, then let it form it with its allies."