Belarus: Russia questions the support to be given to a weakened Lukashenko

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko (right), in Minsk on October 10, 2014. AFP PHOTO / MAXIM MALINOVSKY

Text by: RFI Follow

3 min

While the situation in Belarus is to be the subject of an extraordinary European Union summit this Wednesday, August 19, after the contested re-election of President Alexander Lukashenko, Russia finds itself in a delicate position. A traditional ally of the Belarusian regime, it remains cautious and withdrawn for the time being.

Publicity

Read more

With our correspondent in Moscow, Etienne Bouche

Alexander Lukashenko is not alone. The Belarusian leader, highly contested in his country after his re-election on August 9 but also in a large part of Europe, assured him: he enjoys the support of Russia , which is ready, according to him, to bring him a military aid. This commitment is part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance of six post-Soviet states. But this commitment is only valid in the event of an external threat.

► To read also: Belarus: Europe seeks appeasement from Putin, Lukashenko hardens the tone

The Kremlin did not digest the recent Lukashenko attacks

Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron have all called on Belarus' partner Vladimir Putin to seek to ease this tense climate. The Russian president has made known the Kremlin's position: no “  foreign interference  ” will be accepted in Belarus. But Russia remains very measured on the Belarusian issue for the moment.

In Moscow, observers consider Russian intervention in Belarus unlikely. The political elite analyzes the situation with pragmatism: the maintenance in power of a disqualified Lukashenko, against the people, is unthinkable. The Kremlin was in any case tired of its procrastination, which wanted to push political integration. Russia also probably did not digest the accusations of Russian interference made by Lukashenko himself during the campaign.

► To (re) listen also: Belarus: “Russia is not ready to see a state that would be hostile to it, 500 km from Moscow”

Moscow could be tempted to bet another profile, capable of guaranteeing Russian interests in Belarus, that is to say preserving both the close economic relationship and the military alliance between the two countries. From this perspective, the Kremlin is no doubt hoping for a scenario similar to that of Armenia: the political transition that took place there in 2018 did not call into question the privileged place of Moscow in its national security strategy.

Newsletter Receive all the international news directly in your mailbox

I subscribe

Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application

google-play-badge_FR

  • Belarus
  • Russia
  • Alexander Lukashenko
  • Vladimir Poutine
  • European Union

On the same subject

Belarus: Europe seeks appeasement from Putin, Lukashenko toughens his tone

"You can keep shouting": Belarusian President's pithy response to angry workers

Mid-day guest

Belarus: "Russia is not ready to see a hostile state set up 500 km from Moscow"