The ratings of US President Donald Trump have risen significantly over the past couple of months. This is evidenced by the published results of a poll conducted from August 12 to 15 by the SSRS service commissioned by CNN.

According to this information, in the upcoming US presidential elections, 50% of voters would vote for Biden and Senator Kamala Harris as vice president, and 46% for Trump and current vice president Michael Pence.

"Joe Biden's registered voter preponderance has dropped significantly since June, according to a recent CNN poll by analyst firm SSRS," compared to Donald Trump, "CNN said.

A similar poll, conducted from June 2 to 5, showed that 55% of respondents are ready to vote for Biden, and 41% for Trump.

What's more, CNN notes that in the 15 US states that have the biggest impact on election outcomes, Biden now averages 49% and Trump's 48%.

In addition, according to the TV channel, since June, Trump has managed to rally his party members even stronger around him. If about two months ago, support for Democrat Biden was expressed by 8% of Republicans or independent voters, now this figure is only 4%. 

The fact that Trump is indeed gradually catching up with his rival is evidenced by the data of the sociological survey aggregator RealClearPolitics. So, as of August 17, 50.2% of respondents would vote for Biden, and 42.5% of respondents would vote for Trump. A month ago, these indicators were at 48.7% and 40.1%, respectively.

"More winning candidate"

According to a political scientist, an expert on the United States Malek Dudakov, Trump's ratings have really "grown decently" in recent years.

“This is primarily due to the fact that the wave of protest in the United States has practically come to naught. If in June Trump lagged behind Biden in the region of 12-14%, now it has dropped to 4%. Trump and Clinton had roughly the same gap in the months leading up to the 2016 election. And as we remember, this did not prevent Trump from winning, "the expert said in a conversation with RT.

Another factor that “played in favor” of Trump is the economy, which “began to noticeably recover,” Dudakov said.

  • White House
  • © SAUL LOEB / AFP

“We are now seeing quite good dynamics, as industrial growth in the United States returns to pre-crisis levels, unemployment fell to10%, which is a lot, but much less than it was at its peak (14.7% in April). And in general, there is an understanding that the end of this economic crisis is not far off, ”the analyst said.

Trump's rating was also positively affected by the introduction of measures bypassing Congress to prolong the program to support the population amid the pandemic, Dudakov believes.

“The incumbent head of the White House acted as a defender of the common people, while the congressmen in the disputes could not come to intelligible decisions. Voters understand that if Trump had not signed the relevant documents, then there would have been no support, ”the expert stated.

In turn, Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, notes that Trump's active behavior on the international and domestic arenas "plays into his hands and makes him a more winning candidate in the eyes of voters."

"The head of the White House with his frequent speeches, visits and initiatives looks at least more vivid in comparison with the" sleepy "and rather passive Joe, who sits on his estate and occasionally makes shuttle trips, communicates with the country through the media and through appeals," - said Vasiliev in an interview with RT.

Unprofitable nomination

At the same time, analysts associate the fall in Biden's rating with the fact that he nominated ex-San Francisco prosecutor and California Senator Kamala Harris as a candidate for the post of Vice President of the United States.

We will remind, last year Harris put forward her candidacy in the elections from the Democratic Party. She tried to strengthen her position in the race at the expense of fierce criticism of Joe Biden. During the first Democratic nominee debate in June 2019, Harris accused Biden of collaborating with those who advocated racial segregation.

In response to these attacks, Biden was unable to give an exhaustive answer. It was only after the debate that he categorically rejected Harris's accusations, noting that it was not worth discussing the past. At the same time, in Biden's campaign headquarters, criticism from Harris was considered a transition to personalities.

Following the incident, one of Biden's largest sponsors and fundraisers for the presidential campaign withdrew his further support.

In December, Harris dropped out of the election race, explaining this by the financial difficulties that accompanied her campaign.

Donald Trump expressed his surprise that the Democrats' choice fell on the Senator from California. According to him, she performed poorly during the primaries, "having spent a lot of money." Trump said this at a press conference on August 11. Also, the American leader pointed out that Harris behaved disrespectfully towards Biden and said "terrible things" about him.

“The fake media is giving Kamala Harris the green light despite her radical left-wing failures and a poor record in the Democratic primary. No one, not even me, spoke more caustically or arrogantly about Slow Joe than she did, but according to polls, her support rating quickly slipped to almost zero. Poorly!" - wrote Trump on his Twitter page.

As noted by Vladimir Vasiliev, Biden's rating dropped, among other things, due to the nomination of Kamala Harris.

  • Senator from California Kamala Harris
  • Reuters
  • © Eric Thayer

“This is not to Biden’s hands, because in American society they realized that this candidacy was imposed on him, he himself could not choose a person who harshly criticized him in the debates. All this creates the feeling that Biden is a weak and weak-willed politician. Voices also began to appear suggesting that Biden would simply be replaced later with Harris, who would continue to fight Trump. This whole situation gives rise to even greater disappointment with the Democratic candidate, ”the expert said.

According to Malek Dudakov, "the progressive liberal part of the party will not go and vote for Biden because of Harris's nomination."

“There have been many scandals around her, and at a time when the United States is experiencing a wave of struggle for civil rights, the nomination of a former prosecutor does not fit into the current agenda. It will not help Biden win, but rather the opposite, ”he said.

Vladimir Vasiliev stressed that the democrats are now "beginning to reap the negative benefits of their strategy, built on autopilot, which has shown its ineffectiveness in the crisis conditions."

“Democrats have refused to cooperate with Republicans on how to get out of the crisis and to fight the pandemic. Against the background of the motley initiatives on the part of the Democrats, Biden does not look like a party leader, he never got involved in the process of saving the country, he, one might say, withdrew, "the analyst said.

Moreover, according to Vasiliev, many voters do not remember what to expect from the Democrats, since "now they only sound anti-Trump slogans, the purpose of which is to expel the incumbent president from the White House at any cost."

“And what the members of the Democratic Party will do after the elections in case of victory, they have not yet decided, they do not have a clear plan to lead the country out of the crisis. Moreover, the mass pogroms frightened the business. Businessmen began to fear the democrats who supported the protests, because they could create a situation in which the United States would plunge into chaos and would not protect the interests of business and homeowners, ”the expert noted.

"Not always a guideline"

At the same time, Vasiliev believes that Trump's calls to act on the principle of maintaining "law and order" "resonate positively in the minds of respectable American citizens."

“These US residents have begun to better understand that it is the head of the White House who protects their interests,” the analyst said.

Meanwhile, according to Vasiliev, Trump is betting not only on ordinary US citizens, but also on the elite.

  • Tribune of the President of the United States
  • © Carlos Barria / Reuters

"It is for this purpose that the head of the White House changed the head of his campaign headquarters in order to work more closely with the upper class of the United States, which also sponsors the Trump campaign," he said.  

In turn, Malek Dudakov notes that the American leader "has a tangible chance of winning" the upcoming elections.

"At the same time, the ratings of the head of the White House will strongly depend on how the congresses of the Democratic and Republican parties are held," the analyst said.

At the same time, experts agree that public opinion polls "cannot accurately predict the outcome of the upcoming electoral process."

“Most of the sociological services are in the liberal mainstream, perfectly understanding the role and the degree of influence that they exert by publishing such data. Such structures are politicized, and their polls are not always a reliable reference point, ”said Vladimir Vasiliev.

Malek Dudakov adheres to a similar position. According to him, balanced polls in the United States "are extremely difficult to conduct."

“It is always difficult to say which voter will come and vote. The mood can be counted, but the main thing that the parties are fighting for is mobilizing the electorate. And it is always difficult to determine who will ultimately manage to do this most effectively, ”the expert noted.