Everything is based on evaluation
Biden's unexpected gains from a tumultuous election campaign due to the "Covid-19" crisis
Biden supporters are growing because of Trump's mistakes. Father
Biden is very lucky. Father
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Although he was forced to campaign from his home due to the impeachment measures, the Democratic candidate for the US presidential elections, Joe Biden, is recording clear progress in opinion polls, inadvertently taking advantage of the outbreak of the epidemic and the deep economic crisis, which makes the elections a true referendum on the current president, Donald Trump.
In addition to reducing the risk of mistakes, the "Covid-19" epidemic has allowed Biden, aged 77, to avoid a stressful election campaign.
The predictions of a professor of history at American University, Alan Leachman, have succeeded in the results of the US presidential elections since 1984, including the 2016 elections, when the Republican billionaire surprised the world by winning. This time, Leachman expects former Vice President Barack Obama to win the November 3rd election.
"But it has nothing to do with Joe Biden or the personality of Donald Trump," he says in an interview. "Everything is based on evaluation."
The professor of history developed a system composed of 13 easy-to-define "keys", among them: Is the country enjoying good economic health? Are you going through social unrest? Is the outgoing president a candidate for the elections? But one criterion gives points to the candidate himself: Does he have a strong presence?
"Biden does not fall into this category," Leachman notes. "He is a very friendly and honest man, but he does not have a strong personality." Lichman considered at the end of 2019 that Trump had set off well in the direction of his re-election, and now he says that “since then he made a huge mistake, which is to believe that he can suffice with making speeches to get out of the crises that hit the country, and calls for social justice and economic stagnation, this is not useful, and the result is A failed presidency ».
With more than 160,000 deaths and five million infections, the United States is the country most affected in the world by the emerging corona virus, and the health crisis has weakened the US economy.
In this difficult context, the death of an African-American citizen, George Floyd, sparked a historic wave of protests against racism and police violence in the United States. While Trump was controversially directing these events from the White House, Biden was silent.
The pandemic prevented the Democratic candidate, who has adhered to isolation measures since March at his home in Wilmington, Delaware, from holding rallies and celebrating his victory in the primaries in early April.
But Trump's camp mocked him, accusing him of "hiding" to avoid making mistakes. However, the 70-year-old candidate benefited from this silence, and from media outlets that are likely to be more lenient with him in the face of a president who constantly makes disgraceful statements to achieve progress in opinion polls.
no hesitation
Biden is very lucky, despite suffering three major defeats in the primaries, but through the storm he clings to the starting strategy: counting heavily on South Carolina, and his African American voters, who are a very important category for every Democratic candidate who wants to reach the White House.
His sweeping result shook the nomination of progressive Bernie Sanders, and prompted a number of middle-aged candidates like him, who are younger, to drop the nomination.
The professor at George Washington University, Christopher Arterton, believes that since Biden's victory and because of "his semi-closed campaign, the spotlight has remained on President Trump."
However, the Republican president, by managing the crisis, "pushed independent voters to move from the (undecided) category to the (I will not vote for him) category, according to Arterton.
But with Trump, the so unconventional candidate, and a fickle campaign due to historical events, the momentum could change.
At a time when the pace will accelerate further with the general conferences of the Democratic and Republican parties, at the end of August, and then three major debates in September and October, Biden will have opportunities to slip. Alan Leachman considers Trump "ready for everything, he has no hesitation."
And if he cannot or does not know how to broaden his electoral base, the Republican billionaire may try to discourage Democratic voters from voting.
This explains his violent attacks on Biden, who accuses him of "dementia" and that he wants to "destroy the American dream" or that he is a "puppet" of the extreme left.
Leachman sees two reasons for Democrats to be concerned: The first is that Trump and his team seek to "make voting more difficult, especially by mail, in the midst of the epidemic crisis, and the second is the intervention of Russia" or other foreign powers, recalling Moscow's interference in the 2016 presidential elections.
The historian points out that these two matters are completely "unknown", and although he is very proud of his system for anticipating the election results, he stresses that "no system can take these two matters into consideration."
Despite suffering three major defeats in the primaries, Biden crossed the storm by sticking to the starting strategy: counting heavily on South Carolina and his African American voters, a very important category for every Democratic candidate who wants to reach the White House.
In the event that he cannot or does not know how to broaden his electoral base, the Republican billionaire may try to discourage Democratic voters from voting.