Washington will continue negotiations with Asian allies on the deployment of US intermediate and shorter-range missiles (INF). This was stated in a telephone interview to the Japanese edition of the Nikkei by the United States Special Representative for Arms Control Marshall Billingsley.

From the diplomat's point of view, the deployment of missile systems will allow Washington's allies in Asia, including Tokyo, to counter the "threat" allegedly posed by China's nuclear arsenal. Billingsley believes that the transfer of the INF will increase Japan's defenses.

Difficulties in negotiations

In a commentary to RT, Dmitry Egorchenkov, director of the RUDN Institute for Strategic Studies, suggested that Billingsley could have deliberately made a provocative announcement for Moscow and Beijing of plans to deploy ground-based INF in the Asia-Pacific region (APR).

The expert drew attention to the fact that the interview of the American special envoy for arms control was published on the eve of the next round of talks between the delegations of the Russian Federation and the United States, at which, among other things, the situation with the START III treaty limiting the strategic arsenals of the two powers will be discussed.

“It cannot be ruled out that such statements are made specifically before negotiations with the Russian side in order to thus strengthen their position. And this, as the Americans believe, should force the Russian side to make concessions, ”says Yegorchenkov.

In addition to the US's desire to place missiles in the Asia-Pacific region, in an interview with Nikkei journalist Billingsley reiterated that Beijing should be included in a deal that limits the development of nuclear missile arsenals. At the same time, he admitted that China could join the negotiations after the conclusion of an appropriate agreement between Moscow and Washington.

“I think this is a very sensible approach, especially because we will probably be able to reach some kind of framework agreement with Russia that we would like China to join,” Billingsley said.

Today, however, Beijing sees no point in negotiating with the United States to limit its nuclear arsenal. The PRC leadership insists that it is Washington that should take the first steps in the field of disarmament.

“I can assure you that if the US says it is ready to reduce its nuclear arsenal to the level of China, then China will gladly join the next day. But we know that this will not happen, "Fu Cong, head of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's arms control department, explained earlier Beijing's position.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) has 320 nuclear warheads. At the same time, the arsenal of the American army has 5.8 thousand warheads, of which 1.75 thousand are deployed.

  • US Armed Forces Tomahawk cruise missile launch
  • Reuters
  • © John Schults JES

It is worth noting that lately the United States has not received any demands for the mandatory involvement of the PRC in the negotiation process. So, on August 1, Donald Trump said that Moscow and Washington are working on a "nuclear non-proliferation" treaty. 

In August, the United States Audit Office released a report according to which the National Nuclear Safety Administration (part of the US Department of Energy) and the Pentagon are planning their funding for the coming years, based on the assumption that START III will be extended.

In the same month, Democratic Senator Edward Markey presented a draft resolution to Congress calling for an immediate extension of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. The document draws special attention to the fact that the PLA's nuclear potential is not comparable with the arsenals of the United States and the Russian Federation.

"Suitable footholds"

Experts suggest that the course of the Russian-American talks in Vienna gives rise to cautious optimism. Analysts expect that START will be extended in one form or another, but the issue of the destruction of the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty) is unlikely to be resolved in the near future.

“Washington is determined to place previously banned missiles in the Asia-Pacific region. First of all, this measure is directed against China, but it will inevitably affect the security of Russia, ”Vladimir Vinokurov, professor of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, explained in an interview with RT.

In his opinion, Washington intends to deploy the INF in the territories of the two closest military allies in East Asia - Japan and South Korea, where there is already a developed American military infrastructure. According to the expert, the United States is exerting powerful political pressure on these states in order to achieve agreement on the transfer of previously prohibited weapons.

“The most suitable bridgeheads are, of course, Japan and South Korea. However, it will be very difficult for the United States to agree on the deployment of missiles. Yes, Tokyo and Seoul are loyal to the US military activity in the region, perceiving it as a counterbalance to China. But the deployment of American missiles is a very serious step that is unlikely to be unconditionally accepted by the society and elites of these countries, ”Vinokurov says.

From the expert's point of view, the hardest thing for Washington will be to get Tokyo's consent. In his opinion, the Japanese authorities do not share the overly militant aspirations of the United States. Most likely, South Korea will yield to pressure from Washington, Vinokurov suggests.

Dmitry Egorchenkov looks at the situation somewhat differently. The expert expressed confidence that the transfer of American missiles to several countries in East Asia is only a matter of time.

“Today the logic of events is such that the American INF Treaty should appear not only in Japan and South Korea, but also in Taiwan, with which Beijing has a lot of unresolved problems. Perhaps other countries in the region will also become bases for overseas missiles. The United States does not hide that it is going to form a "hostile belt" near the borders of China, "Yegorchenkov said.

Mirror measures

Moscow is anxiously assessing the prospects for international security after the destruction of the INF Treaty. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, Washington has taken a course towards "the earliest completion of the creation" of previously banned missile systems and does not hide its intention to place them in the APR.

"It is obvious that the deployment of American ground-based INF in various regions of the world will seriously undermine regional and global security, as well as provoke a dangerous new round of the arms race. Russia cannot ignore the emergence of additional missile risks for its territory, which will be strategic for us," - stated in the commentary of the ministry dated August 3, 2020.

The foreign ministry stressed that the transfer of the INF Treaty outside the American borders would require the Russian Federation to "immediately respond."

  • Iskander operational-tactical complex launcher
  • RIA News
  • © Mikhail Voskresensky

By the decision of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Russia adheres to a moratorium on the deployment of ground-based INF. But the temporary ban will be lifted if the United States nevertheless decides to redeploy intermediate and shorter-range missiles.

After the INF Treaty was denounced, Moscow offered to join the moratorium of the United States and its allies, but this call was ignored. In late June, answering journalists' questions, Billingsley said that Washington was not going to impose any restrictions on the deployment of previously banned missiles.

According to Vladimir Vinokurov, Moscow and Beijing can respond to the transfer of American missile systems to the APR. According to him, the Russian army and the PLA have the necessary resources for this.

“For example, Russia can increase the number of Iskander operational-tactical complexes in the Far East, which, as you know, our“ partners ”fear. I think that this step can be the optimal response to the hostile actions of the United States, ”Vinokurov summed up.