In France, a fall in unemployment "trompe l'oeil"

Unemployment in France fell in the second quarter. But this decline "does not reflect an improvement in the labor market," said Thursday, August 13, INSEE. This is a fall in "trompe l'oeil" related to confinement that has prevented people from looking for work. The crisis is there, with in particular a fall in the number of hours worked, according to INSEE. 

The unemployment rate in France fell 0.7 points in the second quarter to 7.1%, according to figures released Thursday. Already in the first quarter, the unemployment rate had fallen by 0.3 point to 7.8%. 

In the second quarter of 2020, a labor market under the influence of containmenthttps: //t.co/1RcZM7VhnA

"The extent of the crisis"

These declines "in trompe l'oeil" according to INSEE, are inherent in the very definition of the unemployed within the meaning of the International Labor Office (BIT), a traditional thermometer measuring the unemployment rate.  

To be unemployed within the meaning of the ILO, you must be 15 or over, be: unemployed during the reference week; available for work within the next two weeks; have carried out an active job search during the past four weeks or found a job which begins within three months. 

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According to this indicator, the number of unemployed fell from 271,000 to two million people between April and June. 

However, other data published Thursday by the Institute of Statistics "well describe the extent of the crisis", underlines Sylvain Larrieu, of INSEE, citing the falls to record levels of the employment rate and the number hours worked, or the rise on an unprecedented scale of "underemployment". 

Containment called into question 

"The confinement has put in forced inactivity a whole part of the population, whether they are employed or unemployed", he recalls, a few days after INSEE announced the destruction of more than 600 000 jobs in the first half in the private sector, because of the coronavirus crisis. 

The employment rate of 15-64 year olds fell by 1.6 points to 64.4%, its lowest level since the start of 2017. The drop is particularly marked for young people under 25, from -2, 9 points to 26.6%, a historic low since INSEE measured it (1975). 

"Underemployment", which concerns people employed part-time who would like to work more, jumped to 20% of those in employment, or 12 points more than in the first quarter, "an unprecedented level" since the Insee measures this indicator (1990). 

As a consequence of the strong recourse to short-time working, the average number of weekly hours worked per job fell by 12.9% compared to the first quarter and by 18% over one year. 

"The halo of unemployment"

The "halo around unemployment", ie unemployed people who want one but who do not meet all the ILO criteria to be considered unemployed, also reflects the crisis: "among inactive people within the meaning of the ILO, 2, 5 million want a job ", up 767,000 from the first quarter. 

The share of the halo in the 15-64 year-old population stood at 6% in the second quarter, "its highest level" since INSEE measured it (2003). 

Taking into account the employment rate and the halo around unemployment, "we have a third of the working population who is inactive, whereas we are traditionally at 11-12%. This is a massive explosion. ", comments Mathieu Plane, economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conjunctures (OFCE).  

He expects a rise in the unemployment rate in the third quarter, "if there is not a reconfinement, with people looking for work who will switch from the halo to unemployment". 

With AFP 

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