Analysis: Refugee policy threatens to break up the government

The Social Democrats hoped that the Migration Policy Committee would be able to untie the knots around refugee policy. For several reasons, this proved to be impossible. The parties were too far apart politically and when the Green Party finally threatened to split the government, a broad agreement was impossible.

Where the question now goes is unclear. The Social Democrats and the Green Party are on a collision course and if these two parties cannot agree, it will probably be difficult to present a bill. And it's starting to burn in the knots. Without new legislation, the old more generous Aliens Act will enter into force again next summer, and only the Green Party and the Left Party seem to think it would be a good idea.

In this matter, the opposition in the Riksdag is not the biggest problem for Prime Minister Stefan Löfven and his party friends. No, it is the government's own partner, the Green Party. While the Social Democrats want to tighten up, the Green Party wants a more generous policy. Settling with the MP and other January parties is theoretically possible for the Social Democrats, but should such a deal be perceived as too generous among voters, the Social Democrats risk being punished in the next election. It would probably also benefit the Sweden Democrats.

A clear majority of voters want Sweden to receive fewer asylum seekers, and in addition, voters rank migration and integration policy as one of the most important issues. It can thus be an important election issue in 2022.

Given the deadlock, an alternative is to simply extend the temporary law for a few more years or to simply make it permanent. But the question is whether the Green Party can accept this.

It has also been said that the issue could also be handled by the Riksdag without the government first submitting a bill. However, this seems increasingly unlikely. First, it presupposes that the Green Party accepts such an arrangement, which the party has clearly stated that it does not do. Secondly, the Moderates no longer seem to be interested in such a solution.

If the Social Democrats are prepared to risk a government crisis, they can go from word to deed after the consultation round that now begins around the committee's final proposal. In January or February next year, the government must put its foot down on the issue and if the Social Democrats choose to push through their line, the government may split. Then it is a year and a half until the election, and Stefan Löfven can, just like Ingvar Carlsson in 1990, hope to remain in the next regular election.

But it can be a difficult maneuver. The majority situation today is completely different in the Riksdag and it would be a gamble for Löfven to try to obtain indirect support from an obsessive Riksdag when an election is approaching. Nor can Löfven be sure that parties such as the Left Party or the Liberals, or for that matter the Green Party, would release him in such a situation.

Rarely has an issue emerged as difficult to resolve as the migration issue right now. It paves the way for continued drama and perhaps also a government crisis. Regardless, the issue will continue to play a major role in Swedish politics in the coming years.