Nagorno-Karabakh, the unrecognized powder keg of the Caucasus

Text by: Romain Philips Follow

7 min

Nagorno-Karabakh, a self-proclaimed independent province of the South Caucasus, has been the subject of a thirty-year conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Despite several attempts, negotiations are slipping and the logic of militarization of the territories continues to predominate. With the hand of Russia and Turkey in the background.

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Latent for almost thirty years and a ceasefire that put the brakes on a bloody war, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has known, in recent weeks,  a sudden increase in violence . The clashes, which have resulted in the deaths of 19 people since Sunday, July 12, did not directly take place in the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh . But this self-proclaimed independent region since 1991 is at the heart of the tensions that agitate the two countries.

In 1921, Stalin decided to reattach this territory, the size of a French department, to Azerbaijan. But when the Soviet bloc collapses, Nagorno-Karabakh dreams of independence. Populated 95% of Armenians, the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh was created in 1991 when it proclaimed itself independent, to the chagrin of its neighbors. Supported by Yerevan but recognized by no member of the United Nations (UN), it is in the crosshairs of Baku, which wishes to regain control of the territory. At that moment, tensions, previously ethnic, turn into open war between the two countries.

Endless conflict and untraceable peace

With its military power, Azerbaijan launched the offensive to regain control of its territory. Violent fighting therefore exploded between the two States on this Transcaucasian mountainous enclave, from which Armenia would emerge victorious. During this open war, clashes are almost daily. In 1994, a ceasefire agreement, which proved to be fragile , put an end to the conflict. To date, the death toll stands at over 30,000 dead and thousands displaced.

Since 1992, the international community has been involved in the matter. A negotiating group is set up by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE): the Minsk Group. Composed of international mediators, co-chaired by Russia, France and the United States, it is responsible for guiding negotiations for the signing of a peace treaty. But even today, they are at a standstill, due to lack of communication between the belligerents and despite several meetings organized over the past 20 years.

" It is very difficult to agree with one or the other "

Status of Nagorno-Karabakh, peripheral territories, nationalist inclinations or even the influence of the great powers… The differences between the two States are legion. "  There are both reasons directly linked to the peace process and at the same time, in the long term, the appetites of nationalist currents on each side  ", summarizes Gaidz Minassian, political scientist specializing in the Caucasus. "  It is also a unique situation because, in this conflict, the main actor is not a stakeholder in the process,  " said Gaidz Minassian, referring to the difficult negotiations.

The historical roots of the separatist region also do not help negotiators to come to terms with this thorny issue. Over the centuries, Nagorno-Karabakh has seen many populations pass, thereby reviving the desire for control. For Azerbaijan, it is a former Ottoman and then Persian territory which control is rightfully theirs. For its part, Armenia emphasizes the sacred character of these lands because, in the 18th century, there was an independent Armenian state. "  Historically, it is very difficult to agree with one or the other because of population movements  ", explained to senators Stéphane Visconti, French co-president of the Minsk group.

Uncertain future

Twenty-eight years later, this “ frozen  ” conflict  has only name, unlike the talks. Outbreaks of violence are regular in the region. One of the most significant, and the bloodiest since the ceasefire of 1994, was the “  four-day war  ”. In April 2016, this period of clashes resulted in the death of more than a hundred people. But each year, between 30 and 40 victims are recorded in tensions at the borders.

►To (re) listen  :  Grand report - Nagorno-Karabakh: when the frozen conflict rekindles

Even though Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a declaration calling for a “  peaceful settlement  ” of the conflict in 2008, the behavior of the respective governments is not up for discussion. Since the end of the war, the three territories have been in a logic of ultra-militarization and return the responsibility to each other. The population lives under constant fear of clashes. Over the years, land is littered with mines and fortifications have been erected around the borders. "  The barriers have allayed concerns for some but serve as a permanent reminder of insecurity for others,  " said a Crisis Group report .

The fear of a new war

The July clashes, the most serious between the two sides since 2016, also risk hardening attitudes towards Nagorno-Karabakh and rekindle fears. A few days before, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliev, believed he had the right to take up arms, arguing that the negotiations were futile. “  The main theory of the Minsk group is that there is no military solution to the conflict. Who said that ? Who do they think they are?  ", He had declared to several local chains. For the population, the death of a famous general has revived the will to put an end to the dormant conflict by means of arms. Thousands of demonstrators gathered in the streets of Baku on July 15, chanting "  Karabakh is Azerbaijan  " and calling for armed intervention.

However, the likelihood of another open war is low. These recent clashes mobilized the entire international community on the issue. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres has called for "  complete and immediate de-escalation  " and "  a return to negotiations  ", as have the European Union, the United States and the Minsk group.

Russian and Turkish influence

The key role of Russia and Turkey in the region greatly influences the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, which is constantly torn between the two countries. On the one hand, Armenia enjoys economic and military alliances with Russia, which notably has a military base on its territory. On the other hand, Azerbaijan buys a third of its weapons from the Soviet giant while enjoying the full support of Turkey . “  The two countries play an ambiguous role, analyzes Gaidz Minassian. Russia considers that it can hold Armenia and Azerbaijan under its grasp and Turkey also considers that the Caucasus is a former Ottoman province  ”. "  They both conduct nuisance diplomacy for different reasons but parallel and opposed,  " he concludes.

Maintaining a status quo is essential for both powers. In the event of a direct confrontation, Russia will be forced to support Armenia, within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, while Azerbaijan will receive the support of its Turkish ally. An arm wrestling that neither of them wants.

The future remains uncertain, however, because while the Kremlin maintains the ceasefire in this region today, the Azerbaijani position fluctuates. The unexpected dismissal of the Azerbaijani foreign minister, in office since 2004 and rather pro-Kremlin, as well as the July 29 military exercises between Turkey and Azerbaijan in the south of the country show  Baku "  a change of direction " .

"  Azerbaijan has decided to play the Turkish card more than the Russian card  ," adds Gaidz Minassian. He tempers, however, on the risk of a conflict: "  Turkey does not want war, it seeks to create disorder in order to put pressure on Moscow  ". To summarize, yet another kick in the anthill, a sign of a show of force, like other conflicts in which the two countries are indirectly opposed. While avoiding making a spark, which would be enough to ignite the powder magazine.

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