Presidential election in Belarus: "In the absence of any control, the figures are manipulable"

Text by: Perrine Juan

4 min

In Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko hardens his tone ahead of the presidential election which is being held this Sunday, August 9. He is aiming for a sixth term after more than 25 years in power, but he faces an unexpected and atypical opposition: that of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. The wife of an imprisoned blogger has turned into a popular phenomenon, defying the authoritarian and aging president, analyzes Anna Colin-Lebedev, lecturer at the University of Paris Nanterre, specialist in post-Soviet societies.

Publicity

RFI: Who is the opponent Svetlana Tikhanovskaya?

Anne Colin-Lebedev: Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is a recently emerged opponent. She is the wife of Sergei Tikhanovsky, in prison since May 29. This blogger, who denounces the political and social functioning of current Belarus, wanted to stand for the presidential election, but his candidacy was not retained, because considered threatening by the political power.

His wife then started collecting signatures and launched a campaign on internal political issues. This is where it draws its legitimacy. Svetlana Tikhanovskaya tells Belarusians: “  I am not looking for power. I am looking to drive a change. If I am elected, I will organize a free presidential election, I will release political prisoners and I will organize a referendum for a return to the previous version of the Constitution which allowed a better distribution of powers. But once I have accomplished all of that, I will leave, because my goal is to get back to my old life, my family and my children.  "

How do you explain that this protest mobilizes so much ?

There are several reasons. On the one hand, there is dissatisfaction with the economic and social policy led by Alexander Lukashenko. Today Belarus is in an economic crisis. There has been a growing feeling, for several years, that power governs badly. The drop in the price of hydrocarbon and the Covid-19 pandemic have amplified this impression. Belarusian power, which was extremely protective, has become less and less present and able to respond to the needs of Belarusians.

In addition, the disastrous management of the epidemic of the new coronavirus by Alexander Lukashenko has been a new source of discredit. The elites and the population realized that their president was putting them in danger by claiming that the coronavirus did not exist or was not very important. As a result, there was a surge of concern combined with dissatisfaction with the management of the health crisis among Belarusians. It was the last straw that broke the camel's back and brought many people to the streets to support the opposition candidate.

Do you think that the current power made a mistake in thinking, at the beginning, that a woman could not be a serious rival ?

I think that the authorities have indeed badly anticipated the weight that Svetlana Tikhanovskaya could take. He did not anticipate two things. The first is the union of the campaign staffs of the opposition candidates. Today Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is not alone, she does not only represent her husband. She managed to unite around her all kinds of dissatisfaction and desire for change.

Moreover, Lukashenko, who is a man who works "in the old fashioned way", did not anticipate the capital of sympathy which a woman could benefit from in Belarusian society. Especially a woman who does not come from institutional politics, but from civil society.

Can Alexander Lukashenko really lose this election ?

There is a risk for him that the candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya will get a lot of votes. There are no polling institutes in Belarus that give reliable results, but there are estimates which show that it could obtain considerable figures. Will these votes be counted? There is another question. There are no independent observers to monitor this election. The authorities in charge of counting the votes are totally controlled by the government. So, in my opinion, there is little chance that the real figures will be those that will be communicated to us after the elections.

We are even beyond fraud. In Belarus, we tend to say that the number that comes out of the ballot box is the one that the authorities need. In the absence of any control, the figures can be manipulated, not only by falsification, but also by forced voting. Some officials are forced by their superiors to send a photo of their ballot. These are things that are practiced in Russia as well. Power has multiple ways of falsifying results, or let's say shaping them. We are beyond forgery.
But it is obvious that Belarusians will not be fooled by the official figures.

In case of repression by the authorities, should we expect international sanctions as was the case in 2010 ?

In my opinion, it will all depend on how events turn in the days and hours to come. Now, is there going to be a repressive turn? Will there be a vote count? What will be the reaction of the government and the opposition following the announcement of the results? These are big question marks.

► To read: Presidential in Belarus: Lukashenko weakened by an unprecedented opposition

Newsletter Receive all international news directly in your mailbox

Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application

• Belarus
• Alexander Lukashenko

On the same subject

Mid-day guest

The protest grows a few days before the presidential election in Belarus

Belarus: an agitated presidential campaign

Belarus: around 50 activists arrested, including an opposition leader