Predict results correctly since 1984
History professor predicts Trump will lose the presidential race
History professor Alan Lichtman has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential race in the United States since Ronald Reagan was re-elected in 1984 using his "13-key" system. Now he used to conclude this system and applied it to the upcoming presidential elections this year, to confirm decisively in an interview with "CNN" that Donald Trump will lose the presidential race.
The "Thirteen Keys" in his system include factors such as the economy, office tenure, social unrest and scandals, as well as the personal charisma of the candidates. "The secret is to focus attention on the big picture of the candidate's current strength and performance, with no regard for opinion polls, critics, and the daily fluctuations of the campaign. This big picture is the primary measure," Lichtman explains.
After 2016, Americans have been wary of presidential prediction models. However, CNN editor Chris Silesa, in his political audio briefing this week, rejected the analogy of some of the results to conclude as "poking heads in the sand." When asked whether this main model could reveal something catastrophic like the Covid-19 pandemic, Lichtham seemed confident, and commented, “Look, these keys date back to 1860, and they represent what we call a strong system, so I'm not fooling people with them. I have continued to predict with confidence during the tremendous changes in our politics, our economy, and our democracy, and these keys should not be mocked. "
Although Lichtmann has kept up his predictions about the elections since 1982, he said he still feels the same amount of pressure every four years. He told CNN: "I am 73 years old, but all this time I have not encountered a failure, but rather I am getting correct readings."