Presidential election in Côte d'Ivoire: an election under very high tension

Alassane Ouattara has ended the suspense over his presidential ambitions. "I am a candidate for the presidential election of October 2020," announced Thursday, August 6, the current Ivorian head of state, choosing the sixtieth anniversary of his country's independence to declare himself.  

Faced with this case of force majeure and out of civic duty, I decided to respond favorably to the call of my fellow citizens asking me to be a candidate for the presidential election of October 31, 2020.
I am therefore a candidate for the election presidential election of October 31, 2020. pic.twitter.com/qILfhxTgCM

His candidacy is not a surprise. Certainly, the outgoing president had clearly hinted for several years that he would not seek a third term, publicly handing over to his Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly to succeed him. But the death of the latter, who died suddenly on July 8 in Abidjan at the age of 61 from heart problems, has since seriously called into question the president's promise. The return of Alassane Ouattara in the presidential race foreshadows, in many ways, a very agitated campaign.  

Alassane Ouattara's candidacy, legal or illegal? 

Legally, the question arises. The opposition considers Alassane Ouattara's candidacy illegal in view of the new Constitution adopted in 2016, which limits - like the old one - to two the number of presidential terms. "This question has greatly fueled the discussions of constitutionalists in Côte d'Ivoire, said Sylvain N'Guessan, political analyst of the Strategic Institute of Abidjan, in an interview given on July 9 to France 24. Opponents of Ouattara believe that , insofar as the new Constitution of December 2016 did not call into question his election of October 2015, he has reached the limit and no longer has the right to stand. Others think, on the contrary, that with a new Constitution, the counters are reset and Alassane Ouattara can run for a new term. The context is quite complex. We must let the institutions in charge of the Constitution decide. " 

Friday, Maurice Kakou Guikaoué, executive secretary of the Democratic Party of Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI), interviewed by RFI, announced the filing of an appeal against this candidacy with the Constitutional Council.

In this context, two possible scenarios emerge, estimates the journalist Clément Yao, in an article of "Africa today". "In the best case, given the tensions and controversies that are swelling around the Constitution and also because of the short deadline for the rebalancing of the Independent Electoral Commission [...], the Ivorian authorities could seize these elements to justify the postponement of the presidential election of October 31 to another date, perhaps, more consensual. " 

Ivory Coast: the presidential election will be held on October 31

In the other case, if the candidacy of President Ouattara is validated by the Constitutional Council, "the situation could degenerate even before the date of the summons of Ivorians to the polls, continues the editor. In this worst case scenario, the consequences would be disastrous. According to several observers, the violence could even exceed that experienced by this country during the post-electoral crisis of 2010-2011. " Some observers even go so far as to say that the same violence could engulf the region already weakened by jihadist movements. It would then be "all the military efforts made which could then be shattered", concludes Clément Yao.  

Dark prospects that political analyst Sylvain N'Guessan nuances in a new interview with France 24. "I think that his candidacy will be validated by the Ivorian Electoral Commission (CEI). The latter cannot indeed have the necessary hindsight to analyze objectively article 183. One thing is certain, in this context, the candidacy of Alassane Ouattara will generate disturbances. But I do not think that they will be registered in time. "

The return of Laurent Gbagbo

Another point of tension in the campaign, the question of the return of Laurent Gbagbo. Three months before the election, supporters of the former president are still hoping for his return to the country. The former Ivorian head of state, acquitted and then released under conditions by the International Criminal Court, is awaiting his passport.  

But is such a return possible? Article II of the Ivorian Constitution stipulates that no Ivorian can stand for a ballot if he is in exile. But from the moment the ICC allows Laurent Gbagbo to return, it becomes possible to introduce himself. "Still he must have the will, abounds Sylvain N'Guessan. If this is the case, it would be desirable for him to be able to return. In my opinion, it will be necessary to favor political compromise: it would be interesting for the dialogue initiated by Prime Minister Bakayoko can continue and that a political solution be favored. "  

FR NW GRAB CIV THAÏS BROUCK JT10H Q1

Demonstrations and "police brutality"

On the ground, the situation is already tense. A demonstration by supporters of former Ivorian President Laurent Gbagbo, intended to denounce "his absence from the electoral list", was dispersed with batons and tear gas on Thursday in Abidjan. The president of the Ivorian Electoral Commission, Ibrahime Coulibaly-Kuibiert, had explained two days earlier that any person sentenced for an offense or a crime to deprivation of his civil rights was removed from the electoral lists.  

For their part, the loyalists of Laurent Gbagbo accuse the Ivorian power of political maneuvers to prevent it from returning to the front of the stage. "The demonstrations will continue until the names of our leaders are registered on the electoral list (...) so that they can enjoy their rights," said Jean Bahé, head of a Popular Front structure. Ivorian (FPI, party created by Laurent Gbagbo), denouncing "police brutality" and reporting "three arrests and one seriously injured" in their ranks.  

It remains to be hoped that the scenario of the 2010 presidential campaign will not repeat itself: ten years ago, Alassane Ouattara's victory against Laurent Gbagbo triggered a civil war lasting several months and left 3,000 dead.  

The summary of the week France 24 invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

Take international news everywhere with you! Download the France 24 application