Beijing (AFP)

Chinese exports surged unexpectedly in July despite the slump affecting Beijing's main customers, but imports fell, bodes poorly for solid demand in the world's second-largest economy.

After a plunge at the start of the year due to an epidemic, sales of the Asian giant increased by 7.2% last month over a year, according to figures released Friday by Customs.

This is the biggest increase since December 2019, when sales from China rose 7.6%, just before the new coronavirus emerged in the center of the country.

The figure for July is significantly better than expected by analysts: experts polled by financial agency Bloomberg were betting on a 0.7% decline in exports in July. The latter only increased by 0.5% in June.

While Chinese trade remains penalized by the decline in activity among its main customers, Europe and North America in the lead, experts do not expect, however, that the recovery in exports will be sustainable.

"External demand began to recover in June as in July. But this recovery will be precarious because we know that epidemic outbreaks appeared in August" in several countries, notes the economist Iris Pang, of the ING bank.

"We will have to wait to know if there is a vaccine or treatment against Covid-19 before being assured of the recovery," she observes.

- Masks and computers -

The Chinese, the leading producers of medical equipment (masks, etc.) and office automation equipment (computers, telephones, etc.), have benefited from the epidemic and the containment measures decreed around the world, notes Ting Lu, from Nomura Bank.

Via online sales, producers in the Middle Kingdom were also able to benefit from a boom in consumption brought about by the plans to support the economy adopted in several countries, he supposes.

But some of these factors may run out of steam, especially with regard to medical equipment, as other countries expand their domestic production.

The first country affected by Covid-19 but also the first to survive, China experienced a recovery in activity in the second quarter, with a 3.2% increase in GDP, according to official figures, after a decline 6.8% in the first quarter.

But entire sectors of the economy are still sluggish, including transport and tourism.

Sign of the persistent weakness of domestic demand, imports fell 1.4% in July year on year, according to Customs. Experts expected an increase of 0.9%.

Imports may have slowed due to the drop in oil purchases as the price of black gold increased, notes Iris Pang. China had taken advantage of the fall in prices at the start of the year to increase its stocks.

In the end, the trade surplus amounted to 62.3 billion dollars, up sharply from June (46.42 billion). With the United States alone, this figure, which is a bone of contention with President Donald Trump, also increased to $ 32.45 billion, against 29.4 billion in June.

© 2020 AFP