The value of all goods and services produced in Sweden fell by 8.6 per cent during the months of April, May and June. It's bad, but not compared to most others. In the EU, statistics so far show a fall in GDP of 12 percent in total compared with the first quarter. In Spain, GDP has fallen by 23 percent since the turn of the year.

Statistics and extra fast statistics are being produced at breakneck speed now - both in Sweden and other countries. The economy has completely or partially collapsed wherever the virus has spread. But all the figures on sales, production and expectations that emerge really reflect, to a large extent, one thing: the extent to which economies have been shut down and restrictions imposed.

Politicians decide

That is why it looks brighter in Sweden than in many other countries, and that is why it brightened in June. But despite the great interest in all these economic figures, they do not really say much about how it should go. It is the politicians' response to the virus spread that decides, even this autumn.

If there are new restrictions in Sweden, well then the economic situation will darken in step with the season. If this is not the case, then hard-hit hotels, restaurants and conference facilities may be able to welcome more customers and withdraw notices and redundancies.

For the export industry, it is also politicians in Germany, the USA and other countries who decide.

It can feel easy to draw a sigh of relief in Sweden, purely economically.

But one unpleasant factor remains: time. In the catastrophe of April, many still believed that the virus would have lost its grip on the world as early as the autumn, and that the economy would be saved with short-term massive emergency measures.

But that has not happened. There may be new virus waves, and shutdown waves.

Is about guessing

Now that it is clear that the crisis will be quite protracted, it is for everyone - politicians, companies and not least workers - to try to guess how much the economy will be damaged or changed in the long run.

Political measures, such as the 95 billion redundancy subsidy, helped a great deal in the beginning, but as time goes on, it will collapse more and more and help less and less, as so much time has changed that businesses and jobs may no longer be in demand, even when the crisis is over. It will be bad for the economy, and not least for the workers because they have stayed at work and in industries without a future instead of looking elsewhere.

Companies have to guess if their goods and services will be in demand in a few years.

And, most importantly, young people who have now lost their jobs, or have not entered the labor market, as they had intended and planned, must now guess whether it will be easier for themselves just for them, if they are to get any more education and in if so which.

Unemployment most serious

Unemployment is the most serious consequence of economic crises. And when it comes to unemployment, Sweden is not as well off at all. Above all, youth unemployment will rise significantly in the future, according to the Swedish Public Employment Service's forecasts.

This is the development that is about slowing down and parrying as much as possible. We do not know how well or badly it will succeed until next year or even next year. Whether the bright future is for the young in a couple of years will be the real proof of how Sweden coped with the corona crisis financially, not that it brightened in June.